Best MLB H+R+RBI Matchups — Friday, July 31, 2026
Top h+r+rbi spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, projected for about 0.43 H+R+RBI per plate appearance across 4.7 projected trips. We build the number bottom-up — summing his projection on every component board — so it moves with each of those matchups instead of a single rate, and inherits their tuning.
The rest of the top of the board
- Brice Turang (MIL) (100) vs RHP the starter: a solid bat at .469 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Chase DeLauter (CLE) (100) vs RHP the starter: a solid bat at .489 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Cole Young (SEA) (94) vs RHP the starter: a league-average bat at .422 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (92) vs RHP the starter: a solid bat at .454 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Carter Jensen (KC) (89) vs RHP the starter: a solid bat at .450 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (88) vs RHP the starter: a league-average bat at .423 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (86) vs RHP the starter: a league-average bat at .440 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
How it played out
8 of the top 10 h+r+rbi matchups landed at least one H+R+RBI. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 6 H+R+RBI. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these h+r+rbi matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's combined hits + runs + RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.