Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Wednesday, July 22, 2026
Top home runs spot: Esmerlyn Valdez
Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Max Fried. The righty is going deep on .159 HR/PA against lefties this year — and .210 over the last two weeks, elite bat that turns into a home run in about 9% of his trips. And Max Fried has been thin against lefties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.3 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Max Fried. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (84) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: big-time bat at .064 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.029), hot bat.
- Juan Soto (NYM) (67) vs RHP Logan Henderson: big-time bat at .064 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.042), due to bounce back.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (65) vs RHP Aaron Nola: big-time bat at .060 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.057).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (64) vs LHP Eric Lauer: elite bat at .067 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Ben Rice (NYY) (64) vs RHP Mitch Keller: big-time bat at .059 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.083), hot bat.
- Ben Rice (NYY) (63) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: big-time bat at .059 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- James Wood (WSH) (60) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: big-time bat at .053 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Platoon edges to target
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .159 against lefties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .077 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .073 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .044 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .078 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
288 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.