Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Thursday, July 23, 2026
Top home runs spot: Junior Caminero
Junior Caminero (TB) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Shane Bieber. The righty is going deep on .069 HR/PA against righties this year — and .026 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 6% of his trips. And Shane Bieber has been homer-prone to righties lately — .045 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Shane Bieber too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Matt Olson (ATL) (82) vs RHP Griffin Canning: big-time bat at .055 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Riley Greene (DET) (73) vs RHP Randy Dobnak: big-time bat at .052 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (68) vs RHP Griffin Canning: real bat at .048 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Kody Clemens (MIN) (67) vs RHP Gavin Williams: big-time bat at .050 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.029).
- Carter Jensen (KC) (64) vs RHP Troy Melton: real bat at .042 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Dillon Dingler (DET) (64) vs RHP Randy Dobnak: real bat at .049 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.053).
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (64) vs RHP Shane Bieber: real bat at .041 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Matt Olson (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .069 against righties this year.
- Riley Greene (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .045 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .053 against righties this year.
- Kody Clemens (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .052 against righties this year.
- Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .044 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
72 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.