Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Tuesday, July 21, 2026
Top home runs spot: Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tyler Phillips. The lefty is going deep on .072 HR/PA against righties this year — and .065 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 6% of his trips. And Tyler Phillips has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Tyler Phillips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) (93) vs LHP Kohl Drake: elite bat at .066 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Juan Soto (NYM) (89) vs RHP Brandon Sproat: big-time bat at .065 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (89) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: elite bat at .068 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.143).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (88) vs LHP Justin Wrobleski: elite bat at .067 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (88) vs RHP Zack Wheeler: big-time bat at .060 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Ben Rice (NYY) (88) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: big-time bat at .059 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.036), hot bat.
- James Wood (WSH) (83) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: big-time bat at .053 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.029).
Platoon edges to target
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .072 against righties this year.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .074 against lefties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .075 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .084 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .044 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.