Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Sunday, July 26, 2026
Top home runs spot: Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Erick Fedde. The lefty is going deep on .078 HR/PA against righties this year — and .143 over the last two weeks, elite bat that turns into a home run in about 7% of his trips. And Erick Fedde has been getting taken deep by righties lately — .077 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 5 career PA against Erick Fedde, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (80) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: big-time bat at .058 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (79) vs RHP Ronel Blanco: big-time bat at .065 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.133).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (77) vs RHP Will Warren: elite bat at .067 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.053).
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (71) vs RHP Jacob Misiorowski: elite bat at .068 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) (63) vs RHP Jameson Taillon: big-time bat at .055 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.143).
- Joc Pederson (TEX) (59) vs RHP Logan Gilbert: big-time bat at .051 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.036), hot bat.
- Junior Caminero (TB) (58) vs LHP Parker Messick: big-time bat at .053 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.056).
Platoon edges to target
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .078 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .043 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .079 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .077 against righties this year.
- Joc Pederson (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .057 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.