Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Wednesday, August 12, 2026
Top rbis spot: Pete Alonso
Pete Alonso (BAL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Zebby Matthews. The righty is driving in runs at .165 RBI/PA against righties this year — and .229 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a RBI in about 18% of his trips. And Zebby Matthews has been stingy with runs against righties lately — .056 RBIs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Zebby Matthews. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs LHP Daniel Lynch IV: an excellent bat at .152 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.400).
- Sal Stewart (CIN) (100) vs RHP Luis Castillo: an elite bat at .162 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.176).
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (100) vs RHP Jack Perkins: an excellent bat at .160 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.333).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (100) vs RHP Jack Perkins: an elite bat at .165 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.158).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (100) vs RHP Janson Junk: an elite bat at .162 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.043), due to bounce back.
- Vaughn Grissom (LAA) (99) vs RHP Cal Quantrill: an elite bat at .168 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.125).
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (99) vs LHP Jackson Kent: an excellent bat at .155 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Platoon edges to target
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .176 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .184 against righties this year.
- Charles McAdoo (TOR) — righty bat vs LHP, .333 against lefties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .124 against righties this year.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .177 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 rbis matchups landed at least one RBI. Top play Pete Alonso finished with 0 RBIs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays