Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Thursday, September 10, 2026
Top rbis spot: Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Cristian Javier. The lefty is driving in runs at .138 RBI/PA against righties this year — and .194 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a RBI in about 14% of his trips. And Cristian Javier has been vulnerable to righties lately — .130 RBIs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Cristian Javier, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Aaron Judge (NYY) (94) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .140 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.100).
- Luis García Jr. (NYY) (93) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: an excellent bat at .143 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.130).
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (92) vs RHP Nick Martinez: an excellent bat at .140 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.040).
- Ben Rice (NYY) (89) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .126 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.130), due to bounce back.
- Andrew Benintendi (CWS) (87) vs RHP Jared Jones: a strong bat at .134 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.158).
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) (78) vs RHP Jacob deGrom: a strong bat at .137 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.128).
- Cody Bellinger (NYY) (77) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .120 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.130).
Platoon edges to target
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .138 against righties this year.
- Luis García Jr. (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .185 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .152 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .158 against righties this year.
- Andrew Benintendi (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .174 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
90 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays