Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Friday, September 11, 2026
Top rbis spot: Pete Alonso
Pete Alonso (BAL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Max Scherzer. The righty is driving in runs at .166 RBI/PA against righties this year — and .114 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a RBI in about 16% of his trips. And Max Scherzer has been stingy with runs against righties lately — .063 RBIs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .182 in 22 career PA against Max Scherzer, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Manny Machado (SD) (100) vs RHP Anthony Molina: a strong bat at .131 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Sal Stewart (CIN) (100) vs RHP Dustin May: an excellent bat at .142 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.250).
- Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) (100) vs LHP MacKenzie Gore: a strong bat at .130 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.094).
- Ketel Marte (AZ) (94) vs LHP MacKenzie Gore: a strong bat at .131 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.094), hot bat.
- Nathaniel Lowe (CLE) (91) vs RHP Taj Bradley: an excellent bat at .140 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.103).
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (88) vs RHP Aaron Nola: an excellent bat at .141 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) (86) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a strong bat at .124 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.103).
Platoon edges to target
- Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .183 against lefties this year.
- Ketel Marte (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .186 against lefties this year.
- Nathaniel Lowe (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .151 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .153 against righties this year.
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) — righty bat vs LHP, .115 against lefties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 rbis matchups landed at least one RBI. Top play Pete Alonso finished with 0 RBIs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays