Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Friday, September 18, 2026
Top rbis spot: Teoscar Hernández
Teoscar Hernández (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Cesar Perdomo. The righty is driving in runs at .158 RBI/PA against lefties this year — and .333 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a RBI in about 14% of his trips. And Cesar Perdomo has been thin against lefties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Cesar Perdomo. It all sets up in a park that leans hitter.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kody Clemens (MIN) (100) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: an excellent bat at .141 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.138), hitter's park.
- Dominic Canzone (SEA) (100) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: a strong bat at .136 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park, hot bat.
- Zach Neto (LAA) (95) vs LHP Connor Prielipp: a strong bat at .128 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.043), hitter's park.
- Jose Siri (LAA) (95) vs LHP Connor Prielipp: a strong bat at .128 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.043), hitter's park, due to bounce back.
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (89) vs RHP Dustin May: an elite bat at .179 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.053).
- Randy Arozarena (SEA) (87) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: a solid bat at .106 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park, hot bat.
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) (85) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: an excellent bat at .146 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
Platoon edges to target
- Teoscar Hernández (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .158 against lefties this year.
- Kody Clemens (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .135 against righties this year.
- Dominic Canzone (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .146 against righties this year.
- Zach Neto (LAA) — righty bat vs LHP, .127 against lefties this year.
- Jose Siri (LAA) — righty bat vs LHP, .152 against lefties this year.
Best parks to drive in runs today
- Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+18% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Dominic Canzone (SEA) at 100.
- UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Teoscar Hernández (LAD) at 100.
- Angel Stadium is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Kody Clemens (MIN) at 100.
- Petco Park is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Jackson Merrill (SD) at 82.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 rbis matchups landed at least one RBI. Top play Teoscar Hernández finished with 1 RBI. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays