Who has the best runs matchup today (Sunday, June 7, 2026)?

Willi Castro (COL) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Shane Drohan. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Sunday, June 7, 2026)?

The top runs matchups on Sunday, June 7, 2026: Willi Castro (100), Jackson Chourio (100), Kyle Schwarber (97), Sam Antonacci (97), Brice Turang (91). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.

Did the top runs matchup get a run on Sunday, June 7, 2026?

Yes — Willi Castro got 1 run.

How is the runs matchup score calculated?

It reads how often he scores against that hand, weighted to recent form, then asks how good the bats behind him are at bringing him home. Spot in the order matters more here than almost anywhere. Then the bullpen, park and weather. 0–100 across the slate.

It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Runs scored is a team stat wearing one player's name — the top of the order in a good spot will out-grade a better hitter batting seventh, because he gets more trips and more help.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Same idea as the other contact boards, with one wrinkle: scoring a run starts with reaching base. The score leans on his rate against today's hand, then asks whether the bats behind him can bring him around.

What are park factors?

A park that gives up hits gives up runs. Gaps, altitude, and weather all raise the odds a leadoff single turns into a crossed plate. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for runs props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Runs scored leans on teammates, so the top of this board out-hits the slate by a smaller margin than the pure-contact boards do — the posted season rate shows exactly how much.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB runs matchups — Sunday, June 7, 2026

Every hitter on the Sunday, June 7, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to score a run. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Sunday, June 7, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 2/5 (40%) on 1+ run, against 48% on the season.

Top 5

2/540%

season 48%

Top 10

5/1050%

season 51%

Full slate

102/27038%

season 36%

Top call Willi Castro came through. Jackson Chourio didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 2–3

PITaway

ATLhomeTop matchup74 Final · 5–9

CWSaway

PHIhomeTop matchup97 Final · 1–6

BOSaway

NYYhomeTop matchup85 Final · 4–6

BALaway

TORhomeTop matchup67 Final · 4–5

SEAaway

DEThomeTop matchup74 Final · 1–4

TBaway

MIAhomeTop matchup74 Final · 5–0

ATHaway

HOUhomeTop matchup74 Final · 6–5

KCaway

MINhomeTop matchup78 Final · 3–5

CINaway

STLhomeTop matchup85 Final · 0–10

CLEaway

TEXhomeTop matchup74 Final · 12–4

MILaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 1–5

WSHaway

AZhomeTop matchup74 Final · 13–5

LAAaway

LADhomeTop matchup85 Final · 7–3

NYMaway

SDhomeTop matchup78 Final · 2–1

SFaway

CHChomeTop matchup67

Not starting47 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 317 shownScore

112 with a RLive count — updates as games play

1
Jo AdellRF
LAA@LAD· 4-for-5
4RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #158
2
Carson BengeRF
NYM@SD· 5-for-5
3RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #19
T2
Andrew Vaughn1B
MIL@COL· 3-for-5
3RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #29
T2
Josh Jung3B
TEXvsCLE· 2-for-4
3RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #65
T2
Nick Madrigal3B
LAA@LAD· 1-for-2
3RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #174
6
William ContrerasC
MIL@COL· 2-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #12
T6
Bryce Harper1B
PHIvsCWS· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #16
T6
Brandon MarshLF
PHIvsCWS· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #42
T6
Corbin CarrollRF
AZvsWSH· 1-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #64
T6
Julio RodríguezCF
SEA@DET· 1-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #68
T6
Gary SánchezC
MIL@COL· 2-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #71
T6
Kody Clemens1B
MINvsKC· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #103
T6
Garrett MitchellCF
MIL@COL· 3-for-5
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #106
T6
Justin Foscue2B
TEXvsCLE· 1-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #123
T6
Vinnie Pasquantino1B
KC@MIN· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #133
T6
Matt McLain2B
CIN@STL· 2-for-4
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #175
T6
Jose SiriCF
LAA@LAD· 3-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #200
T6
Samad TaylorLF
SDvsNYM· 1-for-2
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #222
T6
Zach McKinstry2B
DETvsSEA· 1-for-3
2RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #242
20
Willi Castro2B
COLvsMIL· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #1
T20
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHIvsCWS· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #3
T20
Ezequiel TovarSS
COLvsMIL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #6
T20
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsLAA· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #7
T20
Zach NetoSS
LAA@LAD· 1-for-6
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #8
T20
Trea TurnerSS
PHIvsCWS· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R, #14
T20
Lane ThomasLF
KC@MIN· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #22
T20
Hunter GoodmanC
COLvsMIL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #28
T20
Nick Kurtz1B
ATH@HOU· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #33
T20
Liam HicksC
MIAvsTB· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #40
T20
Colson MontgomerySS
CWS@PHI· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #43
T20
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@NYY· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #44
T20
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@SD· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #45
T20
Kyle TuckerRF
LADvsLAA· 0-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #49
T20
Wade MecklerLF
LAA@LAD· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #50
T20
Alec Burleson1B
STLvsCIN· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #52
T20
Cody BellingerLF
NYYvsBOS· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #53
T20
Taylor WardDH
BAL@TOR· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #58
T20
Kevin McGonigleSS
DETvsSEA· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #67
T20
Otto LopezSS
MIAvsTB· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #70
T20
Orlando ArciaSS
MINvsKC· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #75
T20
Maikel Garcia3B
KC@MIN· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #76
T20
Jordan WalkerRF
STLvsCIN· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #78
T20
Rafael Devers1B
SF@CHC· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #82
T20
Yohendrick PiñangoLF
TORvsBAL· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #84
T20
Shea LangeliersC
ATH@HOU· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #89
T20
Gabriel MorenoC
AZvsWSH· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #91
T20
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@DET· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #95
T20
Alec Bohm3B
PHIvsCWS· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #98
T20
Chase Meidroth2B
CWS@PHI· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #99
T20
Starling MarteRF
KC@MIN· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #104
T20
Alex CallLF
LADvsLAA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #107
T20
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAA@LAD· 0-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #108
T20
Trent GrishamCF
NYYvsBOS· 3-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #111
T20
CJ AbramsSS
WSH@AZ· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #121
T20
Nolan Arenado3B
AZvsWSH· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #122
T20
Josh BellDH
MINvsKC· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #132
T20
Luis RengifoLF
MIL@COL· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #134
T20
Dominic SmithDH
ATLvsPIT· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #141
T20
Brent RookerDH
ATH@HOU· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #143
T20
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsCLE· 4-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #147
T20
Tristan PetersCF
CWS@PHI· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #153
T20
Bryan TorresLF
STLvsCIN· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #155
T20
Dalton RushingC
LADvsLAA· 4-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #157
T20
Ernie Clement2B
TORvsBAL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #163
T20
Anthony VolpeSS
NYYvsBOS· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #166
T20
Marcus Semien2B
NYM@SD· 2-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #167
T20
Justin CrawfordCF
PHIvsCWS· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #172
T20
Ryan WardLF
LADvsLAA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #173
T20
José FermínLF
STLvsCIN· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #176
T20
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYYvsBOS· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #177
T20
Esteury RuizRF
MIAvsTB· 0-for-1
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #188
T20
Joey OrtizSS
MIL@COL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #190
T20
Brett Baty3B
NYM@SD· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #193
T20
Trevor LarnachLF
MINvsKC· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #195
T20
Jonah CoxCF
SF@CHC
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #198
T20
Brandon ValenzuelaC
TORvsBAL· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #201
T20
Colton CowserCF
BAL@TOR· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #202
T20
Tyler StephensonC
CIN@STL· 3-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #203
T20
Nelson VelázquezLF
STLvsCIN· 1-for-1
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #204
T20
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATLvsPIT· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #205
T20
Zack Gelof3B
ATH@HOU· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #208
T20
Spencer Torkelson1B
DETvsSEA· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #214
T20
Jakob MarseeCF
MIAvsTB· 1-for-1
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #215
T20
Rafael MarchánC
PHIvsCWS· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #217
T20
José CaballeroSS
NYYvsBOS· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #219
T20
MJ MelendezDH
NYM@SD· 1-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #221
T20
Carter JensenC
KC@MIN· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #223
T20
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TORvsBAL· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #227
T20
Sebastián RiveroC
LAA@LAD· 5-for-5
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #233
T20
Jorge MateoSS
ATLvsPIT· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #234
T20
Jared TrioloSS
PIT@ATL· 0-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #235
T20
Michael HelmanCF
TEXvsCLE· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #240
T20
Colt EmersonSS
SEA@DET· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R, #243
T20
Freddy FerminC
SDvsNYM· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #248
T20
Jackson Holliday2B
BAL@TOR· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #253
T20
Andrés GiménezSS
TORvsBAL· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #254
T20
Alika WilliamsSS
ATH@HOU· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #258
T20
Elias DíazC
TEXvsCLE· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #261
T20
Wenceel PérezRF
DETvsSEA· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #263
T20
Taylor WallsSS
TB@MIA· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #266
T20
Carson KellyC
CHCvsSF· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #268
T20
Blaze Alexander3B
BAL@TOR· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R, #270
T20
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWS@PHI· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.6 R
T20
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEXvsCLE· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R
T20
Spencer Horwitz1B
PIT@ATL· 2-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R
T20
Brandon NimmoRF
TEXvsCLE· 1-for-3
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R
T20
Amed Rosario3B
NYYvsBOS· 1-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R
T20
Jacob GonzalezSS
CWS@PHI· 0-for-1
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R
T20
Braxton FulfordDH
COLvsMIL· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R
T20
Jesús SánchezRF
TORvsBAL· 2-for-4
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R
T20
Blake PerkinsCF
MIL@COL· 1-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.5 R
T20
Tommy TroyLF
AZvsWSH· 0-for-2
1RFinal
Proj 0.4 R

Best MLB Runs Matchups — Sunday, June 7, 2026

Willi Castro (COL) is the top runs matchup on the Sunday, June 7, 2026 board at 100, with Jackson Chourio (MIL) and Kyle Schwarber (PHI) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to score a run — on-base ability, the arm and bullpen they face, lineup spot, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top runs spot: Willi Castro

Willi Castro (COL) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Shane Drohan. The righty is scoring at — R/PA against lefties this year, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 12% of his trips. And Shane Drohan has been thin against lefties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Shane Drohan. It all sets up in a hitter's park.

The rest of the top of the board

Jackson Chourio (MIL) (100) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park, due to bounce back.
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (97) vs LHP Tyler Gilbert: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Sam Antonacci (CWS) (97) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
Brice Turang (MIL) (91) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park, hot bat.
Ezequiel Tovar (COL) (91) vs LHP Shane Drohan: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (85) vs RHP José Soriano: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Zach Neto (LAA) (85) vs RHP Emmet Sheehan: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.

Best parks to score in today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Willi Castro (COL) at 100.

How it played out

5 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Willi Castro finished with 1 run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these runs matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the runs board is

The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His on-base ability at the top of the order.
The bats due up behind him.
The opposing run-prevention.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.

How to use it

Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best runs matchup today (Sunday, June 7, 2026)?: Willi Castro (COL) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Shane Drohan. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB runs matchups today (Sunday, June 7, 2026)?: The top runs matchups on Sunday, June 7, 2026: Willi Castro (100), Jackson Chourio (100), Kyle Schwarber (97), Sam Antonacci (97), Brice Turang (91). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by runs upside.
Did the top runs matchup get a run on Sunday, June 7, 2026?: Yes — Willi Castro got 1 run.
Which parks favor runs today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Willi Castro (COL) at 100.
How is the runs matchup score calculated?: It reads how often he scores against that hand, weighted to recent form, then asks how good the bats behind him are at bringing him home. Spot in the order matters more here than almost anywhere. Then the bullpen, park and weather. 0–100 across the slate.
What does R/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end with him scoring a run. Around .117 is league average. Runs depend on getting on base and the bats behind you, so lineup spot and team context matter as much as the individual.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Runs scored is a team stat wearing one player's name — the top of the order in a good spot will out-grade a better hitter batting seventh, because he gets more trips and more help.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a run.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Same idea as the other contact boards, with one wrinkle: scoring a run starts with reaching base. The score leans on his rate against today's hand, then asks whether the bats behind him can bring him around.
What are park factors?: A park that gives up hits gives up runs. Gaps, altitude, and weather all raise the odds a leadoff single turns into a crossed plate. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for runs props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Runs scored leans on teammates, so the top of this board out-hits the slate by a smaller margin than the pure-contact boards do — the posted season rate shows exactly how much.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.