Best MLB Runs Matchups — Sunday, June 7, 2026
Top runs spot: Willi Castro
Willi Castro (COL) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Shane Drohan. The righty is scoring at — R/PA against lefties this year, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 12% of his trips. And Shane Drohan has been thin against lefties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Shane Drohan. It all sets up in a hitter's park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (100) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park, due to bounce back.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (97) vs LHP Tyler Gilbert: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (97) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Brice Turang (MIL) (91) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park, hot bat.
- Ezequiel Tovar (COL) (91) vs LHP Shane Drohan: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (85) vs RHP José Soriano: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Zach Neto (LAA) (85) vs RHP Emmet Sheehan: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Best parks to score in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Willi Castro (COL) at 100.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Willi Castro finished with 1 run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.