Best MLB Runs Matchups — Monday, June 8, 2026
Top runs spot: Zach Neto
Zach Neto (LAA) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Spencer Arrighetti. The righty is scoring at — R/PA against righties this year, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 12% of his trips. And Spencer Arrighetti has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Spencer Arrighetti too — .333 across 6 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (100) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Casey Schmitt (SF) (96) vs LHP Richard Lovelady: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- James Wood (WSH) (96) vs RHP Logan Webb: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) (96) vs LHP Kyle Harrison: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Christian Yelich (MIL) (96) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Mike Trout (LAA) (91) vs RHP Spencer Arrighetti: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (87) vs LHP Andrew Abbott: a solid bat at .117 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
How it played out
6 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Zach Neto finished with 1 run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.