Best MLB Runs Matchups — Friday, June 12, 2026
Top runs spot: Shea Langeliers
Shea Langeliers (ATH) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Sean Sullivan. The righty is scoring at .233 R/PA against lefties this year — and .389 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a run in about 18% of his trips. And Sean Sullivan has been thin against lefties lately. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Sean Sullivan. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (81) vs RHP Landen Roupp: an excellent bat at .158 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.179).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (79) vs LHP Sean Sullivan: an excellent bat at .152 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Bryce Eldridge (SF) (75) vs RHP Javier Assad: an excellent bat at .168 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Liam Hicks (MIA) (74) vs RHP Braxton Ashcraft: a strong bat at .130 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.240).
- Ketel Marte (AZ) (72) vs LHP Nick Lodolo: a strong bat at .140 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.154).
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) (72) vs RHP Joe Ryan: an excellent bat at .154 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.077).
- Ben Rice (NYY) (71) vs RHP Trey Yesavage: an excellent bat at .162 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.154).
Platoon edges to target
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .233 against lefties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .155 against righties this year.
- Bryce Eldridge (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .161 against righties this year.
- Liam Hicks (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .148 against righties this year.
- Ketel Marte (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .169 against lefties this year.
How it played out
8 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Shea Langeliers finished with 1 run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays