Best MLB Runs Matchups — Friday, July 24, 2026
Top runs spot: JJ Wetherholt
JJ Wetherholt (STL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Rhett Lowder. The lefty is scoring at .175 R/PA against righties this year — and .182 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 14% of his trips. And Rhett Lowder has been getting lit up by righties lately — .421 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 2 career PA against Rhett Lowder, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Luis Arraez (SF) (100) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a league-average bat at .113 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.133), due to bounce back.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (100) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a strong bat at .149 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.125).
- Jacob Wilson (ATH) (99) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: a solid bat at .119 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.407), hot bat.
- Christian Yelich (MIL) (96) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a solid bat at .127 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.125).
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (95) vs LHP Carson Palmquist: a solid bat at .122 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.286).
- Zach Neto (LAA) (93) vs RHP Logan Webb: a strong bat at .132 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Brice Turang (MIL) (92) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a strong bat at .140 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.125).
Platoon edges to target
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .175 against righties this year.
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .121 against righties this year.
- Christian Yelich (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .162 against righties this year.
- Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .176 against righties this year.
- Austin Martin (MIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .151 against lefties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play JJ Wetherholt finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — the WizLine set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays