Best MLB Runs Matchups — Friday, July 24, 2026
Top runs spot: Jacob Wilson
Jacob Wilson (ATH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Zebby Matthews. The righty is scoring at .115 R/PA against righties this year — and .148 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 12% of his trips. And Zebby Matthews has been getting lit up by righties lately — .407 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Zebby Matthews too — .667 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Christian Yelich (MIL) (98) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a solid bat at .126 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.125).
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (98) vs LHP Carson Palmquist: a solid bat at .125 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.286).
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) (97) vs RHP Rhett Lowder: a strong bat at .138 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.346).
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (95) vs RHP Spencer Arrighetti: a strong bat at .141 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.273), due to bounce back.
- Brice Turang (MIL) (94) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a strong bat at .140 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.125).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (92) vs RHP Spencer Arrighetti: a strong bat at .146 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.273).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (92) vs LHP Jacob Lopez: a solid bat at .128 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.143), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Christian Yelich (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .162 against righties this year.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .170 against righties this year.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .174 against righties this year.
- Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .176 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .195 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.