Best MLB Runs Matchups — Saturday, July 25, 2026
Top runs spot: Jackson Chourio
Jackson Chourio (MIL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Feltner. The righty is scoring at .167 R/PA against righties this year — and .250 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 14% of his trips. And Ryan Feltner has been getting lit up by righties lately — .500 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .091 in 11 career PA against Ryan Feltner, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Christian Yelich (MIL) (85) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at .129 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.375).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (81) vs RHP Mike Paredes: an excellent bat at .152 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Brice Turang (MIL) (79) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .139 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.375).
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (78) vs RHP Brandon Young: a strong bat at .148 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.148).
- Cole Carrigg (COL) (77) vs LHP Robert Gasser: a strong bat at .135 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.292).
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (77) vs RHP Hunter Brown: a strong bat at .143 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.200).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (75) vs RHP Hunter Brown: a strong bat at .149 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.200).
Platoon edges to target
- Christian Yelich (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .163 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .156 against righties this year.
- Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .177 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .178 against righties this year.
- Cole Carrigg (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .206 against lefties this year.
How it played out
2 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Jackson Chourio finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — the WizLine set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays