Best MLB Runs Matchups — Thursday, July 23, 2026
Top runs spot: Yandy Díaz
Yandy Díaz (TB) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Shane Bieber. The righty is scoring at .120 R/PA against righties this year — and .150 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 12% of his trips. And Shane Bieber has been stingy with runs against righties lately — .091 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .143 in 7 career PA against Shane Bieber, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) (100) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: a strong bat at .138 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (100) vs RHP Randy Dobnak: a strong bat at .132 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (95) vs LHP Kyle Hart: a solid bat at .118 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.500).
- Dillon Dingler (DET) (93) vs RHP Randy Dobnak: a strong bat at .131 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.053).
- Gleyber Torres (DET) (92) vs RHP Randy Dobnak: a league-average bat at .113 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.053).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (90) vs RHP Shane Bieber: a solid bat at .122 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.091), hot bat.
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (85) vs RHP Gavin Williams: a strong bat at .137 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.250).
Platoon edges to target
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .170 against righties this year.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .152 against righties this year.
- Steven Kwan (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .108 against righties this year.
- José Ramírez (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .125 against righties this year.
- Riley Greene (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .145 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Yandy Díaz finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — the WizLine set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays