Best MLB Runs Matchups — Thursday, July 23, 2026
Top runs spot: Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin (ATL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Griffin Canning. The lefty is scoring at .165 R/PA against righties this year — and .188 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 14% of his trips. And Griffin Canning has been getting lit up by righties lately — .150 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 1 career PA against Griffin Canning, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (93) vs RHP Shane Bieber: a solid bat at .119 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.091).
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) (92) vs RHP Griffin Canning: a strong bat at .131 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.150).
- Nathan Lukes (TOR) (87) vs LHP Ian Seymour: a league-average bat at .110 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.316).
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) (86) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: a strong bat at .139 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (82) vs RHP Shane Bieber: a solid bat at .120 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.091), hot bat.
- Matt Olson (ATL) (81) vs RHP Griffin Canning: a strong bat at .138 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.150).
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (79) vs RHP Randy Dobnak: a strong bat at .135 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .165 against righties this year.
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .178 against righties this year.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .170 against righties this year.
- Matt Olson (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .165 against righties this year.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .154 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
72 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.