Best MLB Runs Matchups — Saturday, August 8, 2026
Top runs spot: Jordan Walker
Jordan Walker (STL) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. The righty is scoring at .179 R/PA against lefties this year — and .083 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 13% of his trips. And Kyle Freeland has been stingy with runs against lefties lately — .056 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .250 in 8 career PA against Kyle Freeland. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (100) vs RHP George Kirby: a league-average bat at .116 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.150).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: a strong bat at .139 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (99) vs RHP Michael King: an excellent bat at .156 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.214), due to bounce back.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (94) vs RHP Landen Roupp: a strong bat at .147 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.261).
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) (92) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a league-average bat at .103 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.191).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (92) vs RHP George Kirby: a solid bat at .125 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.150).
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (92) vs LHP Gage Jump: a strong bat at .138 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.194).
Platoon edges to target
- Jordan Walker (STL) — righty bat vs LHP, .179 against lefties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .148 against righties this year.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .162 against righties this year.
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .168 against lefties this year.
- Jake Bauers (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .190 against righties this year.
How it played out
2 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Jordan Walker finished with 1 run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays