Best MLB Runs Matchups — Friday, August 7, 2026
Top runs spot: JJ Wetherholt
JJ Wetherholt (STL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Feltner. The lefty is scoring at .179 R/PA against righties this year — and .250 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 15% of his trips. And Ryan Feltner has been getting lit up by righties lately — .200 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Ryan Feltner. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (100) vs RHP JT Brubaker: a strong bat at .144 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.273).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: a strong bat at .140 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.162), hot bat.
- Gleyber Torres (DET) (93) vs RHP JT Brubaker: a strong bat at .131 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.100), hot bat.
- Dillon Dingler (DET) (88) vs RHP JT Brubaker: a strong bat at .133 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.100), hot bat.
- Kyle Stowers (MIA) (87) vs RHP George Klassen: a solid bat at .123 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Jake Bauers (MIL) (86) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: an excellent bat at .161 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.208), hot bat.
- Griffin Conine (MIA) (80) vs RHP George Klassen: a solid bat at .129 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Platoon edges to target
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .179 against righties this year.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .161 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .150 against righties this year.
- Kyle Stowers (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .123 against righties this year.
- Jake Bauers (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .193 against righties this year.
How it played out
2 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play JJ Wetherholt finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays