Best MLB Runs Matchups — Tuesday, August 18, 2026
Top runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Feltner. The lefty is scoring at .156 R/PA against righties this year — and .219 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 15% of his trips. And Ryan Feltner has been mostly holding up against righties lately — .103 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .091 in 11 career PA against Ryan Feltner, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (99) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: a solid bat at .128 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.346), hot bat.
- Matt Olson (ATL) (93) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: a strong bat at .135 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.346).
- Trea Turner (PHI) (87) vs LHP Cade Gibson: a strong bat at .132 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.333).
- Nick Sogard (BOS) (84) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: a solid bat at .117 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.219).
- Wilyer Abreu (BOS) (83) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: a strong bat at .132 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.219).
- Wyatt Langford (TEX) (80) vs LHP Jackson Kent: a strong bat at .141 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (79) vs LHP Zac Thornton: a strong bat at .142 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .156 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .154 against righties this year.
- Matt Olson (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .165 against righties this year.
- Trea Turner (PHI) — righty bat vs LHP, .160 against lefties this year.
- Nick Sogard (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .103 against righties this year.
How it played out
7 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 1 run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays