Best MLB Runs Matchups — Monday, August 31, 2026
Top runs spot: Gunnar Henderson
Gunnar Henderson (BAL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tanner Gordon. The lefty is scoring at .144 R/PA against righties this year — and .111 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 14% of his trips. And Tanner Gordon has been stingy with runs against righties lately — .083 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Tanner Gordon. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- CJ Abrams (WSH) (97) vs RHP Ryan Gusto: an excellent bat at .150 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Blaze Alexander (BAL) (93) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a strong bat at .132 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.100).
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (92) vs RHP Taj Bradley: a strong bat at .147 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.111).
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (90) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a strong bat at .135 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.067), due to bounce back.
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (88) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a strong bat at .133 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.100).
- Brice Turang (MIL) (88) vs RHP Clay Holmes: a strong bat at .146 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.033).
- Wyatt Langford (TEX) (88) vs LHP Gage Jump: a strong bat at .134 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.189), due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .144 against righties this year.
- CJ Abrams (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .167 against righties this year.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .161 against righties this year.
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .141 against righties this year.
- Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .160 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
216 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays