Best MLB Runs Matchups — Monday, August 31, 2026
Top runs spot: Bryce Harper
Bryce Harper (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Brandon Pfaadt. The lefty is scoring at .183 R/PA against righties this year — and .206 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 16% of his trips. And Brandon Pfaadt has been getting lit up by righties lately — .333 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .167 in 6 career PA against Brandon Pfaadt, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (95) vs LHP Cade Povich: a strong bat at .136 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Jackson Holliday (BAL) (93) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .126 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.105).
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) (92) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a strong bat at .136 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.105).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (90) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: a strong bat at .135 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.333).
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (83) vs RHP Anthony Molina: a strong bat at .136 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (83) vs RHP Taj Bradley: a strong bat at .146 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.111).
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (81) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a strong bat at .135 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.067), due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .183 against righties this year.
- Jackson Holliday (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .135 against righties this year.
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .143 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .142 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .149 against righties this year.
How it played out
2 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Bryce Harper finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays