Best MLB Runs Matchups — Tuesday, September 8, 2026
Top runs spot: Sam Antonacci
Sam Antonacci (CWS) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Bubba Chandler. The lefty is scoring at .157 R/PA against righties this year — and .163 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 14% of his trips. And Bubba Chandler has been getting lit up by righties lately — .179 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Bubba Chandler. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Brett Bateman (TOR) (100) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a strong bat at .132 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.143).
- James Wood (WSH) (100) vs RHP Casey Mize: an excellent bat at .170 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.250), hot bat.
- Ben Rice (NYY) (97) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: a strong bat at .149 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (97) vs RHP Dean Kremer: a strong bat at .146 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.241).
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (95) vs RHP Andrew Painter: an excellent bat at .159 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.038), due to bounce back.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (94) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: a strong bat at .147 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.179).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (90) vs RHP Andrew Painter: a strong bat at .148 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.100).
Platoon edges to target
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .157 against righties this year.
- Brett Bateman (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .171 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .201 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .166 against righties this year.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .160 against righties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Sam Antonacci finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — the WizLine set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays