Best MLB Singles Matchups — Tuesday, August 4, 2026
Top singles spot: Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Javier Assad. The lefty is lining singles at .188 1B/PA against righties this year — and .361 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a single in about 21% of his trips. And Javier Assad has been getting picked apart by righties lately — .222 singles per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Javier Assad, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jackson Merrill (SD) (100) vs LHP Eduardo Rodriguez: an elite bat at .198 into an arm getting picked apart by the same side (.350).
- Mike Trout (LAA) (97) vs LHP Cade Povich: an excellent bat at .188 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (95) vs RHP Davis Martin: an excellent bat at .182 into an arm getting picked apart by the same side (.200), hot bat.
- Gleyber Torres (DET) (91) vs RHP Emerson Hancock: an excellent bat at .178 into an arm getting picked apart by the same side (.238).
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (90) vs RHP Ryan Gusto: an excellent bat at .181 into an arm prone to base hits from the same side (.158).
- Chandler Simpson (TB) (89) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: an elite bat at .219 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (88) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: a strong bat at .170 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .188 against righties this year.
- Mike Trout (LAA) — righty bat vs LHP, .165 against lefties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .178 against righties this year.
- Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .252 against righties this year.
- Nathan Lukes (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .213 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Freddie Freeman (LAD), Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Jeremy Peña (HOU), Jacob Wilson (ATH), Andy Pages (LAD), and Munetaka Murakami (CWS). Cold but due to bounce back: Yandy Díaz (TB), Nathan Lukes (TOR), Nick Gonzales (PIT), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR), and Nick Sogard (BOS).
How it played out
5 of the top 10 singles matchups landed at least one single. Top play Freddie Freeman finished with 1 single. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these singles matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's singles per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.