Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Sunday, May 31, 2026
Top total bases spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Andrew Painter. The lefty is racking up bases at — TB/PA against righties this year, a solid bat that turns into a total base in about 37% of his trips. And Andrew Painter has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Andrew Painter too — .500 across 2 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (100) vs RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Willi Castro (COL) (99) vs LHP Robbie Ray: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Jonah Cox (SF) (99) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Garrett Stubbs (PHI) (91) vs RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Tyler Freeman (COL) (90) vs LHP Robbie Ray: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park, hot bat.
- Rafael Devers (SF) (90) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
- Taylor Ward (BAL) (83) vs RHP Spencer Miles: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Andrew Painter has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Andy Pages (LAD), and Santiago Espinal (LAD).
- RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Schwarber (PHI), Garrett Stubbs (PHI), and Edmundo Sosa (PHI).
- LHP Robbie Ray has been giving up bases to lefties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Willi Castro (COL), Tyler Freeman (COL), and Troy Johnston (COL).
- RHP Tanner Gordon has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonah Cox (SF), Rafael Devers (SF), and Luis Arraez (SF).
Best parks for total bases today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% extra-base park). Top bat there: Willi Castro (COL) at 99.
How it played out
7 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 2 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.