Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Saturday, July 18, 2026
Top total bases spot: Elly De La Cruz
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tomoyuki Sugano. The lefty is racking up bases at .372 TB/PA against righties this year — and .333 over the last two weeks, a league-average bat that turns into a total base in about 37% of his trips. And Tomoyuki Sugano has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Tomoyuki Sugano, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- JJ Bleday (CIN) (91) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a solid bat at .374 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (91) vs LHP Ryan Weathers: a strong bat at .480 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.500).
- James Wood (WSH) (86) vs RHP J.T. Ginn: a strong bat at .479 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.500).
- Miguel Vargas (CWS) (84) vs RHP Shane Bieber: a solid bat at .419 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.727).
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) (82) vs RHP J.T. Ginn: an excellent bat at .483 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.500).
- Trea Turner (PHI) (79) vs LHP Sean Manaea: a solid bat at .370 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.553).
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (75) vs RHP Taj Bradley: a strong bat at .445 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.333).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Tomoyuki Sugano has been getting squared up by righties — .479 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), JJ Bleday (CIN), and Sal Stewart (CIN).
- RHP Shane Bieber has been getting squared up by righties — .459 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Miguel Vargas (CWS), Sam Antonacci (CWS), and Munetaka Murakami (CWS).
- LHP Ian Seymour has been getting squared up by lefties — .430 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Wilyer Abreu (BOS), Masataka Yoshida (BOS), and Anthony Seigler (BOS).
- LHP Sean Manaea has been vulnerable to lefties — .418 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Trea Turner (PHI), Kyle Schwarber (PHI), and Alec Bohm (PHI).
Platoon edges to target
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .372 against righties this year.
- JJ Bleday (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .433 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .465 against righties this year.
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .550 against righties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .495 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.