Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Saturday, July 18, 2026
Top total bases spot: Zach Neto
Zach Neto (LAA) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Tarik Skubal. The righty is racking up bases at .442 TB/PA against lefties this year — and 1.083 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a total base in about 46% of his trips. And Tarik Skubal has been mostly containing lefties lately — .333 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .222 in 9 career PA against Tarik Skubal. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (100) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a solid bat at .417 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- James Wood (WSH) (100) vs RHP J.T. Ginn: a strong bat at .479 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.500).
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (95) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a league-average bat at .343 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.600), due to bounce back.
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) (95) vs RHP J.T. Ginn: an excellent bat at .483 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.500).
- Tyler Soderstrom (ATH) (94) vs RHP Zack Littell: a strong bat at .427 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.318).
- Colt Keith (DET) (93) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a solid bat at .387 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.600), due to bounce back.
- Riley Greene (DET) (93) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a strong bat at .425 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.600).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Tomoyuki Sugano has been getting squared up by righties — .479 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), JJ Bleday (CIN), and Sal Stewart (CIN).
- RHP Shane Bieber has been getting squared up by righties — .459 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Miguel Vargas (CWS), Sam Antonacci (CWS), and Munetaka Murakami (CWS).
- LHP Ian Seymour has been getting squared up by lefties — .425 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Wilyer Abreu (BOS), Anthony Seigler (BOS), and Willson Contreras (BOS).
- LHP Sean Manaea has been vulnerable to lefties — .418 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Trea Turner (PHI), Kyle Schwarber (PHI), and Alec Bohm (PHI).
Platoon edges to target
- Zach Neto (LAA) — righty bat vs LHP, .442 against lefties this year.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .393 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .466 against righties this year.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .362 against righties this year.
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .550 against righties this year.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Zach Neto finished with 0 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the total bases board is
The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His extra-base pop vs this arm.
- The park.
- Recent contact quality.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.
How to use it
See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
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