Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Sunday, August 2, 2026
Top total bases spot: Trevor Larnach
Trevor Larnach (MIN) tops the board at 100, facing RHP George Kirby. The lefty is racking up bases at .400 TB/PA against righties this year — and .385 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a total base in about 38% of his trips. And George Kirby has been getting squared up by righties lately — .737 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned George Kirby too — .300 across 10 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs LHP Jake Bennett: a strong bat at .423 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Nick Loftin (KC) (100) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .375 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.686).
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (96) vs RHP Emmet Sheehan: a strong bat at .435 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.500), hot bat.
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (92) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: an excellent bat at .542 into an arm tough on the same side (.250), hot bat.
- Ryan Jeffers (MIN) (89) vs RHP George Kirby: a solid bat at .393 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.455), hot bat.
- Salvador Perez (KC) (88) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a league-average bat at .367 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.686).
- Kody Clemens (MIN) (82) vs RHP George Kirby: a solid bat at .381 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.737), due to bounce back.
Arms giving up extra bases today
- LHP Kyle Freeland has been getting squared up by lefties — .477 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Nick Loftin (KC), Salvador Perez (KC), and Starling Marte (KC).
- LHP Matthew Liberatore has been getting squared up by lefties — .450 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR), Luis Urías (TOR), and Kazuma Okamoto (TOR).
- RHP George Kirby has been getting squared up by righties — .424 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Trevor Larnach (MIN), Ryan Jeffers (MIN), and Kody Clemens (MIN).
- RHP Keider Montero has been vulnerable to righties — .398 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Donovan Walton (ATH), Tyler Soderstrom (ATH), and Jonah Heim (ATH).
Platoon edges to target
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .400 against righties this year.
- Nick Loftin (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .352 against lefties this year.
- Salvador Perez (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .421 against lefties this year.
- Kody Clemens (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .448 against righties this year.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) — righty bat vs LHP, .320 against lefties this year.
How it played out
8 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Trevor Larnach finished with 5 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.