Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Sunday, August 2, 2026
Top total bases spot: Lane Thomas
Lane Thomas (KC) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. The righty is racking up bases at .363 TB/PA against lefties this year — and .385 over the last two weeks, a league-average bat that turns into a total base in about 37% of his trips. And Kyle Freeland has been getting squared up by lefties lately — .686 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .125 in 16 career PA against Kyle Freeland, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (93) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: an excellent bat at .542 into an arm tough on the same side (.250), hot bat.
- Salvador Perez (KC) (89) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a league-average bat at .367 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.686).
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) (84) vs RHP George Kirby: a solid bat at .379 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.737).
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) (82) vs LHP Matthew Liberatore: a solid bat at .376 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.694).
- Isaac Collins (KC) (81) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a league-average bat at .347 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.686).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (80) vs LHP Jake Bennett: a strong bat at .423 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Luis Urías (TOR) (79) vs LHP Matthew Liberatore: a league-average bat at .333 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.694).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- LHP Kyle Freeland has been getting squared up by lefties — .477 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Lane Thomas (KC), Salvador Perez (KC), and Isaac Collins (KC).
- LHP Matthew Liberatore has been getting squared up by lefties — .450 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR), Luis Urías (TOR), and Kazuma Okamoto (TOR).
- RHP George Kirby has been getting squared up by righties — .424 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Trevor Larnach (MIN), Ryan Jeffers (MIN), and Kody Clemens (MIN).
- RHP Keider Montero has been vulnerable to righties — .398 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Nick Kurtz (ATH), Tyler Soderstrom (ATH), and Jonah Heim (ATH).
Platoon edges to target
- Lane Thomas (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .363 against lefties this year.
- Salvador Perez (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .421 against lefties this year.
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .400 against righties this year.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) — righty bat vs LHP, .320 against lefties this year.
- Isaac Collins (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .293 against lefties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.