Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Monday, August 3, 2026
Top total bases spot: Jeremy Peña
Jeremy Peña (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Shane Bieber. The righty is racking up bases at .518 TB/PA against righties this year — and 1.044 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a total base in about 58% of his trips. And Shane Bieber has been tough on righties lately — .231 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Shane Bieber too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (100) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a league-average bat at .336 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.750).
- Jackson Merrill (SD) (100) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: a strong bat at .475 into an arm tough on the same side (.303).
- Cedric Mullins (TB) (99) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .393 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.750).
- CJ Abrams (WSH) (97) vs RHP Aaron Nola: an excellent bat at .521 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.719).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (90) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .441 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.467).
- Victor Mesa Jr. (TB) (87) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .370 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.750), due to bounce back.
- James Wood (WSH) (86) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a solid bat at .373 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.719), due to bounce back.
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Michael Lorenzen has been getting squared up by righties — .462 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Cedric Mullins (TB), and Junior Caminero (TB).
- RHP Aaron Nola has been getting squared up by righties — .460 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: CJ Abrams (WSH), James Wood (WSH), and Abimelec Ortiz (WSH).
- LHP Justin Wrobleski has been vulnerable to lefties — .391 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Seiya Suzuki (CHC), Alex Bregman (CHC), and Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC).
- RHP Michael McGreevy has been vulnerable to righties — .382 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Ben Rice (NYY), Luis García Jr. (NYY), and Trent Grisham (NYY).
Platoon edges to target
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .413 against righties this year.
- Jackson Merrill (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .352 against righties this year.
- Cedric Mullins (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .352 against righties this year.
- CJ Abrams (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .514 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .442 against righties this year.
How it played out
7 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Jeremy Peña finished with 1 total base. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.