Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Monday, August 3, 2026
Top total bases spot: CJ Abrams
CJ Abrams (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Aaron Nola. The lefty is racking up bases at .517 TB/PA against righties this year — and .865 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a total base in about 52% of his trips. And Aaron Nola has been getting squared up by righties lately — .719 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.3 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .231 in 26 career PA against Aaron Nola. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (97) vs RHP Shane Bieber: an excellent bat at .542 into an arm tough on the same side (.278), hot bat.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (94) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a league-average bat at .338 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.750).
- Daylen Lile (WSH) (93) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a strong bat at .422 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.719).
- James Wood (WSH) (89) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a solid bat at .374 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.719), due to bounce back.
- Junior Caminero (TB) (87) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .440 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.467).
- Joc Pederson (TEX) (86) vs RHP Logan Webb: an excellent bat at .502 into an arm giving up bases to the same side (.372).
- Trea Turner (PHI) (84) vs RHP the starter: a strong bat at .461 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Michael Lorenzen has been getting squared up by righties — .462 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Junior Caminero (TB), and Chandler Simpson (TB).
- RHP Aaron Nola has been getting squared up by righties — .460 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: CJ Abrams (WSH), Daylen Lile (WSH), and James Wood (WSH).
- RHP Michael McGreevy has been getting squared up by righties — .425 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Amed Rosario (NYY), Ben Rice (NYY), and Trent Grisham (NYY).
- LHP Ian Seymour has been vulnerable to lefties — .398 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), Mickey Moniak (COL), and Cole Carrigg (COL).
Platoon edges to target
- CJ Abrams (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .517 against righties this year.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .415 against righties this year.
- Daylen Lile (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .422 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .447 against righties this year.
- Joc Pederson (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .450 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
144 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.