Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Saturday, August 1, 2026
Top total bases spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Payton Tolle. The lefty is racking up bases at .510 TB/PA against lefties this year — and .526 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a total base in about 42% of his trips. And Payton Tolle has been getting squared up by lefties lately — .900 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Payton Tolle. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Lane Thomas (KC) (100) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a league-average bat at .359 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (1.000).
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (100) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: an excellent bat at .491 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.818), due to bounce back.
- Dillon Dingler (DET) (100) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a strong bat at .464 into an arm tough on the same side (.210).
- Salvador Perez (KC) (96) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at .401 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (1.000).
- Carter Jensen (KC) (95) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at .409 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.522).
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (94) vs RHP Jacob deGrom: an excellent bat at .540 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.455), hot bat.
- Brice Turang (MIL) (86) vs LHP Brent Suter: a league-average bat at .345 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.474).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Ryan Feltner has been getting squared up by righties — .468 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Lane Thomas (KC), Salvador Perez (KC), and Carter Jensen (KC).
- RHP Miles Mikolas has been getting squared up by righties — .456 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Drake Baldwin (ATL), Matt Olson (ATL), and Michael Harris II (ATL).
- RHP Braxton Ashcraft has been getting squared up by righties — .428 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Nathaniel Lowe (CIN), and JJ Bleday (CIN).
- LHP Payton Tolle has been vulnerable to lefties — .414 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Freddie Freeman (LAD), and Andy Pages (LAD).
Platoon edges to target
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .440 against righties this year.
- Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .385 against righties this year.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .372 against righties this year.
- Joc Pederson (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .450 against righties this year.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .387 against righties this year.
How it played out
10 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 1 total base. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.