Who has the best total bases matchup today (Saturday, August 15, 2026)?

Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Jared Jones. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Saturday, August 15, 2026)?

The top total bases matchups on Saturday, August 15, 2026: Ceddanne Rafaela (100), Joc Pederson (100), Henry Bolte (92), Jackson Chourio (89), Yordan Alvarez (86). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.

Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Saturday, August 15, 2026?

Yes — Ceddanne Rafaela got 2 total bases.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Joc Pederson (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .441 against righties this year. Henry Bolte (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .363 against lefties this year. Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .458 against lefties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .544 against righties this year. Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .487 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Jared Jones has been getting squared up by righties — .475 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Willson Contreras (BOS), and Caleb Durbin (BOS). LHP Justin Wrobleski has been getting squared up by lefties — .448 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), Luis Lara (MIL), and Andrew Vaughn (MIL). RHP Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties — .417 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Rafael Devers (SF), Drew Gilbert (SF), and Jung Hoo Lee (SF). LHP Joey Cantillo has been vulnerable to lefties — .412 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Manny Machado (SD), and Jake Cronenworth (SD).

How is the total bases matchup score calculated?

It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.

What does TB/PA mean?

Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.

What are park factors?

Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB total bases matchups — Saturday, August 15, 2026

Every hitter on the Saturday, August 15, 2026 slate — ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Saturday, August 15, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 2/5 (40%) on our total-bases over/under, against 46% on the season.

Top 5

2/540%

season 46%

Top 10

4/1040%

season 45%

Full slate

140/25355%

season 50%

Top call Ceddanne Rafaela came through. Joc Pederson didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 4–3

CWSaway

DEThomeTop matchup67 Final · 8–4

STLaway

CHChomeTop matchup73 Final · 1–4

NYYaway

TORhomeTop matchup67 Final · 1–7

COLaway

SFhomeTop matchup85 Final · 4–5

WSHaway

NYMhomeTop matchup61 Final · 4–3

BALaway

TBhomeTop matchup77 Final · 8–4

MIAaway

CINhomeTop matchup70 Final · 10–5

SEAaway

HOUhomeTop matchup86 Final · 1–6

SDaway

CLEhomeTop matchup81 Final · 9–1

PHIaway

MINhomeTop matchup74 Final · 10–3

AZaway

ATLhomeTop matchup65 Final · 4–1

MILaway

LADhomeTop matchup89 Final · 4–0

BOSaway

PIThomeTop matchup100 Final · 0–1

KCaway

LAAhomeTop matchup83 Final · 5–3

TEXaway

ATHhomeTop matchup100

Not starting56 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 326 shownScore

167 with a TBLive count — updates as games play

1
Joshua BáezLF
STL@CHC· 3-for-4
12TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #76
2
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOS@PIT· 3-for-4
8TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #120
T2
Alec Bohm3B
PHI@MIN· 5-for-5
8TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #125
T2
Nolan Arenado3B
AZ@ATL· 2-for-4
8TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #188
5
Henry BolteCF
ATHvsTEX· 3-for-5
7TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #3
T5
Jakob MarseeCF
MIA@CIN· 4-for-4
7TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #54
T5
Matt McLain2B
CINvsMIA· 3-for-4
7TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #228
8
Drew GilbertCF
SFvsCOL· 3-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #9
T8
Pete Alonso1B
BAL@TB· 3-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #64
T8
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsSEA· 3-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #110
T8
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEX@ATH· 3-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #122
T8
Cole Young2B
SEA@HOU· 3-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #168
T8
Joe MackC
MIA@CIN· 3-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #172
14
Eduardo ValenciaDH
DETvsCWS· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #30
T14
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF
ATLvsAZ· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #55
T14
Corbin CarrollRF
AZ@ATL· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #89
T14
William ContrerasC
MIL@LAD· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #149
18
Gleyber Torres2B
DETvsCWS· 3-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #33
T18
Brady House3B
WSH@NYM· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #69
T18
Jo AdellRF
CLEvsSD· 2-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #73
T18
Carson BengeRF
NYMvsWSH· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #82
T18
Alec Burleson1B
STL@CHC· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #85
T18
Andrés Chaparro1B
WSH@NYM· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #111
T18
Blaze Jordan3B
STL@CHC· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #123
T18
Jose Altuve2B
HOUvsSEA· 2-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #131
T18
Bryson Stott2B
PHI@MIN· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #138
T18
Joey OrtizSS
MIL@LAD· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #143
T18
Gabriel MorenoC
AZ@ATL· 3-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #144
T18
Christian Encarnacion-Strand3B
BAL@TB· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #162
T18
Ke'Bryan Hayes3B
CINvsMIA· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #194
T18
Michael ConfortoDH
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #198
T18
Victor RoblesRF
SEA@HOU· 2-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #214
T18
Christian VázquezC
HOUvsSEA· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #245
T18
Ildemaro Vargas1B
AZ@ATL· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #255
35
Matt Olson1B
ATLvsAZ· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #36
T35
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAAvsKC· 3-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #40
T35
Brendan Donovan3B
SEA@HOU· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #48
T35
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsMIL· 1-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #77
T35
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEA@HOU· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #81
T35
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsBAL· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #101
T35
Jared Young1B
NYMvsWSH· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #119
T35
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsSD· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #135
T35
Pedro Ramírez2B
CHCvsSTL· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #155
T35
Luke Keaschall2B
MINvsPHI· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #193
T35
Cedric MullinsCF
TBvsBAL· 1-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #219
T35
Adam Frazier2B
LAAvsKC· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #231
T35
Andrew PinckneyLF
WSH@NYM· 1-for-2
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #240
T35
Alika WilliamsSS
ATHvsTEX· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #241
T35
Kaelen CulpepperSS
MINvsPHI· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #254
T35
Charles McAdoo2B
TORvsNYY· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #256
51
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@PIT· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #1
T51
Rafael Devers1B
SFvsCOL· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #6
T51
Brandon NimmoRF
TEX@ATH· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #13
T51
Corey SeagerSS
TEX@ATH· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #15
T51
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SFvsCOL· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #16
T51
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsMIA· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #26
T51
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #35
T51
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsBAL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #38
T51
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOUvsSEA· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #43
T51
Francisco LindorSS
NYMvsWSH· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #45
T51
Jonah HeimC
ATHvsTEX· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #46
T51
Bryce Harper1B
PHI@MIN· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #53
T51
Drake BaldwinC
ATLvsAZ· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #58
T51
Brett BatemanCF
TORvsNYY· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #59
T51
Munetaka Murakami1B
CWS@DET· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #62
T51
Julio RodríguezCF
SEA@HOU· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #66
T51
José Ramírez3B
CLEvsSD· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #67
T51
Jackson Holliday2B
BAL@TB· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #68
T51
Masataka YoshidaDH
BOS@PIT· 1-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #86
T51
Xavier Edwards2B
MIA@CIN· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #93
T51
Austin MartinRF
MINvsPHI· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #95
T51
Royce Lewis1B
MINvsPHI· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #104
T51
Miguel Vargas3B
CWS@DET· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #115
T51
Andruw MonasterioSS
BOS@PIT· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #117
T51
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIA@CIN· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #124
T51
Sam AntonacciLF
CWS@DET· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #127
T51
Jacob YoungCF
WSH@NYM· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #132
T51
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PITvsBOS· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #134
T51
JJ BledayLF
CINvsMIA· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #137
T51
Chase DeLauterRF
CLEvsSD· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #139
T51
Ryan JeffersC
MINvsPHI· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #141
T51
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWS@DET· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #142
T51
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@HOU· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #153
T51
Owen CaissieRF
MIA@CIN· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #156
T51
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsBAL· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #166
T51
Corey JulksLF
DETvsCWS· 1-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #191
T51
Evan CarterCF
TEX@ATH· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #197
T51
Jake MangumCF
PITvsBOS· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #200
T51
Tim Tawa1B
AZ@ATL· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #204
T51
Lane ThomasLF
ATLvsAZ· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #205
T51
Graham Pauley3B
MIA@CIN· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #209
T51
Francisco AlvarezC
NYMvsWSH· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #210
T51
Patrick BaileyC
CLEvsSD· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #213
T51
Jake Burger1B
TEX@ATH· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #215
T51
Colson MontgomerySS
CWS@DET· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #224
T51
Max KeplerLF
AZ@ATL· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #226
T51
Brock RoddenSS
SEA@HOU· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #233
T51
Richie Palacios2B
TBvsBAL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #234
T51
Leody TaverasCF
BAL@TB· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #246
T51
Tristan PetersCF
CWS@DET· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #247
T51
Connor Norby2B
COL@SF· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #248
T51
Alex CallLF
LADvsMIL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #262
T51
Ernie Clement2B
TORvsNYY· 2-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB
104
Jac CaglianoneRF
KC@LAA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #8
T104
Luis LaraRF
MIL@LAD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #12
T104
Tyler O'NeillRF
BAL@TB· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #14
T104
Andrew Vaughn1B
MIL@LAD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #17
T104
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsBAL· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #19
T104
Osleivis Basabe2B
SFvsCOL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #24
T104
Bryce EldridgeDH
SFvsCOL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #25
T104
Mike TroutCF
LAAvsKC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #29
T104
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DETvsCWS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #39
T104
Michael Busch1B
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #41
T104
Griffin ConineRF
MIA@CIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #44
T104
Alex Bregman3B
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #49
T104
Jake Cronenworth2B
SD@CLE· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #52
T104
Caleb Durbin3B
BOS@PIT· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #56
T104
Daulton VarshoCF
HOUvsSEA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #61
T104
Luis Arraez2B
PHI@MIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #70
T104
Brandon Lowe2B
PITvsBOS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #71
T104
Michael Massey2B
KC@LAA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #72
T104
Tommy White3B
ATHvsTEX· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #78
T104
Gunnar HendersonSS
BAL@TB· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #79
T104
Luis García Jr.1B
NYY@TOR· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #87
T104
Jake McCarthyLF
COL@SF· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #88
T104
Alejandro KirkC
TORvsNYY· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #94
T104
Nathan LukesRF
TORvsNYY· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #97
T104
Bo Bichette3B
NYMvsWSH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #105
T104
Trea TurnerSS
PHI@MIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #107
T104
Josh BellDH
MINvsPHI· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #136
T104
Lars NootbaarLF
AZ@ATL· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #150
T104
Buddy Kennedy1B
SFvsCOL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #154
T104
Cole CarriggCF
COL@SF· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #159
T104
Everson PereiraRF
STL@CHC· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #167
T104
Andrés GiménezSS
TORvsNYY· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #175
T104
Christian Koss3B
SFvsCOL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #178
T104
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TORvsNYY· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #180
T104
Willi Castro2B
COL@SF· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #181
T104
Edmundo SosaLF
PHI@MIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #183
T104
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWS@DET· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #186
T104
Brian ServenC
ATHvsTEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #187
T104
Dane MyersCF
CINvsMIA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #189
T104
Jarren DuranLF
BOS@PIT· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #207
T104
Austin WynnsC
TEX@ATH· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #208
T104
Rafael Flores Jr.C
PITvsBOS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #212
T104
Spencer JonesRF
NYY@TOR· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #218
T104
Miguel AmayaC
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #220
T104
Pedro PagésC
STL@CHC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #222
T104
Nathaniel Lowe1B
CLEvsSD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #223
T104
Chase Meidroth2B
CWS@DET· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #227
T104
Derek HillCF
PHI@MIN· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #232
T104
Jorge PolancoDH
NYMvsWSH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #235
T104
J.T. RealmutoC
PHI@MIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #238
T104
Brooks Lee3B
MINvsPHI· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #243
T104
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSH@NYM· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #250
T104
Teoscar HernándezLF
LADvsMIL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #251
T104
Hunter FeducciaC
LADvsMIL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #252
T104
George Lombard Jr.SS
NYY@TOR· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #253
T104
Austin WellsC
NYY@TOR· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #257
T104
Nicky Lopez2B
TEX@ATH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #258
T104
Ryan WaldschmidtCF
AZ@ATL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #261
T104
Travis Bazzana2B
CLEvsSD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #264
T104
Taylor WallsSS
TBvsBAL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #265
T104
Ezequiel TovarSS
COL@SF· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #267
T104
Petey HalpinCF
CLEvsSD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #268
T104
Abimelec Ortiz1B
WSH@NYM· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB
T104
Tyrone TaylorLF
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB

Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Saturday, August 15, 2026

Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) is the top total bases matchup on the Saturday, August 15, 2026 board at 100, with Joc Pederson (TEX) and Henry Bolte (ATH) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots — raw power, the arm and bullpen they face, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top total bases spot: Ceddanne Rafaela

Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jared Jones. The righty is racking up bases at .422 TB/PA against righties this year — and .580 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a total base in about 44% of his trips. And Jared Jones has been getting squared up by righties lately — 1.177 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Jared Jones. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Joc Pederson (TEX) (100) vs RHP J.T. Ginn: a solid bat at .395 into an arm tough on the same side (.150), due to bounce back.
Henry Bolte (ATH) (92) vs LHP MacKenzie Gore: a solid bat at .379 into an arm tough on the same side (.281), due to bounce back.
Jackson Chourio (MIL) (89) vs LHP Justin Wrobleski: a solid bat at .406 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.765).
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (86) vs RHP Emerson Hancock: a strong bat at .448 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.588).
Rafael Devers (SF) (85) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .406 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.480).
Wade Meckler (LAA) (83) vs RHP Randy Dobnak: a league-average bat at .360 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.333), hot bat.
Jac Caglianone (KC) (83) vs LHP Reid Detmers: a strong bat at .433 into an arm tough on the same side (.200), hot bat.

Arms giving up extra bases today

RHP Jared Jones has been getting squared up by righties — .475 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Willson Contreras (BOS), and Caleb Durbin (BOS).
LHP Justin Wrobleski has been getting squared up by lefties — .448 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), Luis Lara (MIL), and Andrew Vaughn (MIL).
RHP Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties — .417 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Rafael Devers (SF), Drew Gilbert (SF), and Jung Hoo Lee (SF).
LHP Joey Cantillo has been vulnerable to lefties — .412 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Manny Machado (SD), and Jake Cronenworth (SD).

Platoon edges to target

Joc Pederson (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .441 against righties this year.
Henry Bolte (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .363 against lefties this year.
Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .458 against lefties this year.
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .544 against righties this year.
Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .487 against righties this year.

How it played out

5 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Ceddanne Rafaela finished with 2 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these total bases matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the total bases board is

The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His extra-base pop vs this arm.
The park.
Recent contact quality.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.

How to use it

See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best total bases matchup today (Saturday, August 15, 2026)?: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Jared Jones. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Saturday, August 15, 2026)?: The top total bases matchups on Saturday, August 15, 2026: Ceddanne Rafaela (100), Joc Pederson (100), Henry Bolte (92), Jackson Chourio (89), Yordan Alvarez (86). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.
Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Saturday, August 15, 2026?: Yes — Ceddanne Rafaela got 2 total bases.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Joc Pederson (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .441 against righties this year. Henry Bolte (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .363 against lefties this year. Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .458 against lefties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .544 against righties this year. Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .487 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Jared Jones has been getting squared up by righties — .475 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Willson Contreras (BOS), and Caleb Durbin (BOS). LHP Justin Wrobleski has been getting squared up by lefties — .448 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), Luis Lara (MIL), and Andrew Vaughn (MIL). RHP Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties — .417 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Rafael Devers (SF), Drew Gilbert (SF), and Jung Hoo Lee (SF). LHP Joey Cantillo has been vulnerable to lefties — .412 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Manny Machado (SD), and Jake Cronenworth (SD).
How is the total bases matchup score calculated?: It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.
What does TB/PA mean?: Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.
What are park factors?: Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.