Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Sunday, August 16, 2026
Top total bases spot: Drew Gilbert
Drew Gilbert (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Gabriel Hughes. The lefty is racking up bases at .369 TB/PA against righties this year — and .472 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a total base in about 39% of his trips. And Gabriel Hughes has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 1 career PA against Gabriel Hughes, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jac Caglianone (KC) (100) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: an excellent bat at .485 into an arm tough on the same side (.286), hot bat.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (100) vs RHP Bryan Woo: a strong bat at .440 into an arm tough on the same side (.179).
- Alec Burleson (STL) (100) vs RHP Edward Cabrera: a strong bat at .475 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Otto Lopez (MIA) (97) vs LHP Nick Lodolo: a league-average bat at .368 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (1.167).
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (95) vs RHP Bryan Woo: a solid bat at .380 into an arm tough on the same side (.188).
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (94) vs LHP Trevor Rogers: a solid bat at .418 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.452), hot bat.
- Rafael Devers (SF) (94) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: a solid bat at .397 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Arms giving up extra bases today
- LHP Nick Lodolo has been getting squared up by lefties — .447 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Otto Lopez (MIA), Heriberto Hernández (MIA), and Agustín Ramírez (MIA).
- RHP Freddy Peralta has been vulnerable to righties — .420 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Holliday (BAL), Pete Alonso (BAL), and Gunnar Henderson (BAL).
- RHP Tanner Bibee has been vulnerable to righties — .413 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Merrill (SD), Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), and Jake Cronenworth (SD).
- LHP Patrick Sandoval has been vulnerable to lefties — .405 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Brandon Lowe (PIT), Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT), and Jared Triolo (PIT).
Platoon edges to target
- Drew Gilbert (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .369 against righties this year.
- Jac Caglianone (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .461 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .540 against righties this year.
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .504 against righties this year.
- Otto Lopez (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .500 against lefties this year.
How it played out
9 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Drew Gilbert finished with 1 total base. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the total bases board is
The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His extra-base pop vs this arm.
- The park.
- Recent contact quality.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.
How to use it
See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
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