Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Friday, August 14, 2026
Top total bases spot: Jonah Cox
Jonah Cox (SF) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. The righty is racking up bases at — TB/PA against lefties this year, a solid bat that turns into a total base in about 37% of his trips. And Kyle Freeland has been mostly containing lefties lately — .324 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Kyle Freeland. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- CJ Abrams (WSH) (100) vs RHP Robert Stock: a solid bat at .398 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.536).
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (100) vs LHP Matthew Liberatore: a strong bat at .466 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.700).
- Tyler Soderstrom (ATH) (100) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: a solid bat at .403 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.938), hot bat.
- Jeff McNeil (ATH) (99) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: a league-average bat at .345 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.938).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (93) vs RHP George Kirby: a strong bat at .425 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.385).
- Daylen Lile (WSH) (92) vs RHP Robert Stock: a strong bat at .445 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.536).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (90) vs LHP Robert Gasser: an excellent bat at .488 into an arm tough on the same side (.000).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Kumar Rocker has been getting squared up by righties — .449 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Tyler Soderstrom (ATH), Jeff McNeil (ATH), and Zack Gelof (ATH).
- RHP Chris Bassitt has been getting squared up by righties — .428 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Junior Caminero (TB), and Chandler Simpson (TB).
- LHP Matthew Liberatore has been vulnerable to lefties — .407 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Michael Busch (CHC), and Seiya Suzuki (CHC).
- RHP Robert Stock has been vulnerable to righties — .406 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: CJ Abrams (WSH), Daylen Lile (WSH), and Abimelec Ortiz (WSH).
Platoon edges to target
- CJ Abrams (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .500 against righties this year.
- Tyler Soderstrom (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .420 against righties this year.
- Jeff McNeil (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .326 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .537 against righties this year.
- Daylen Lile (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .425 against righties this year.
How it played out
6 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Jonah Cox finished with 3 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the total bases board is
The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His extra-base pop vs this arm.
- The park.
- Recent contact quality.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.
How to use it
See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays