Best MLB Walks Matchups — Monday, June 15, 2026
Top walks spot: Nick Kurtz
Nick Kurtz (ATH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jared Jones. The lefty is working counts at .241 BB/PA against righties this year — and .282 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a walk in about 19% of his trips. And Jared Jones has been prone to walking righties lately — .105 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Jared Jones. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- James Wood (WSH) (81) vs RHP Mitch Spence: an elite bat at .152 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (79) vs RHP Kai-Wei Teng: an excellent bat at .141 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.130).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (78) vs RHP Nick Martinez: an elite bat at .170 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.040).
- Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) (71) vs RHP Walbert Ureña: an excellent bat at .121 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.191).
- Iván Herrera (STL) (69) vs LHP Wandy Peralta: an excellent bat at .148 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.182).
- Tyler Soderstrom (ATH) (66) vs RHP Jared Jones: an excellent bat at .134 into an arm prone to walking the same side (.105).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (65) vs RHP Ryan Gusto: an excellent bat at .138 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.043).
Platoon edges to target
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .241 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .189 against righties this year.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .151 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .198 against righties this year.
- Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .142 against righties this year.
How it played out
7 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play Nick Kurtz finished with 1 walk. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays