Best MLB Walks Matchups — Thursday, September 3, 2026
Top walks spot: Cal Raleigh
Cal Raleigh (SEA) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jack Perkins. The lefty is working counts at .138 BB/PA against righties this year — and .179 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a walk in about 12% of his trips. And Jack Perkins has been handing out free passes to righties lately — .191 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.3 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 1 career PA against Jack Perkins, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Rafael Devers (SF) (100) vs RHP Lake Bachar: an excellent bat at .126 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.278), hot bat.
- Iván Herrera (STL) (100) vs LHP Tarik Skubal: a strong bat at .114 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.024).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (100) vs RHP Luis Castillo: an excellent bat at .127 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.048).
- Roman Anthony (BOS) (100) vs RHP Brandon Young: a strong bat at .108 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.154).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (99) vs RHP Hunter Brown: a strong bat at .115 into an arm fairly stingy with walks against the same side (.074).
- Carter Jensen (KC) (90) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: a solid bat at .100 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.067).
- Steven Kwan (CLE) (86) vs RHP José Soriano: a solid bat at .098 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.132).
Platoon edges to target
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .138 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .127 against righties this year.
- Iván Herrera (STL) — righty bat vs LHP, .178 against lefties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .186 against righties this year.
- Roman Anthony (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .167 against righties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play Cal Raleigh finished with 1 walk. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays