Best MLB Walks Matchups — Thursday, September 3, 2026
Top walks spot: Rafael Devers
Rafael Devers (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Lake Bachar. The lefty is working counts at .119 BB/PA against righties this year — and .219 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a walk in about 12% of his trips. And Lake Bachar has been handing out free passes to righties lately — .278 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Lake Bachar, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (98) vs RHP Hunter Brown: a strong bat at .116 into an arm fairly stingy with walks against the same side (.074).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (95) vs RHP Luis Castillo: an excellent bat at .124 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.029).
- Roman Anthony (BOS) (89) vs RHP Brandon Young: a strong bat at .109 into an arm prone to walking the same side (.108).
- Steven Kwan (CLE) (86) vs RHP José Soriano: a solid bat at .099 into an arm around league average against the same side (.091).
- Carter Jensen (KC) (79) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: a solid bat at .100 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.067).
- Chase DeLauter (CLE) (77) vs RHP José Soriano: a solid bat at .095 into an arm around league average against the same side (.091).
- Bryce Eldridge (SF) (77) vs RHP Lake Bachar: a strong bat at .104 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.278).
Platoon edges to target
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .119 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .176 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .184 against righties this year.
- Roman Anthony (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .182 against righties this year.
- Steven Kwan (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .126 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
162 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays