Best MLB Walks Matchups — Friday, September 4, 2026
Top walks spot: Rafael Devers
Rafael Devers (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Nolan McLean. The lefty is working counts at .127 BB/PA against righties this year — and .268 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a walk in about 13% of his trips. And Nolan McLean has been handing out free passes to righties lately — .154 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 2 career PA against Nolan McLean, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (96) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: an excellent bat at .127 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.171).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (86) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: a strong bat at .115 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Roman Anthony (BOS) (84) vs RHP Shane Baz: a strong bat at .108 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.222), hot bat.
- Lars Nootbaar (AZ) (83) vs RHP Cristian Javier: a strong bat at .106 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.056).
- Mike Trout (LAA) (83) vs RHP Jared Jones: an excellent bat at .121 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.000).
- Gleyber Torres (DET) (82) vs LHP Logan Allen: a strong bat at .116 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Spencer Horwitz (PIT) (81) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a solid bat at .095 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.222).
Platoon edges to target
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .127 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .186 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .174 against righties this year.
- Roman Anthony (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .167 against righties this year.
- Lars Nootbaar (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .137 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays