Best MLB Walks Matchups — Sunday, September 6, 2026
Top walks spot: Geraldo Perdomo
Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Peter Lambert. The lefty is working counts at .142 BB/PA against righties this year — and .135 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a walk in about 11% of his trips. And Peter Lambert has been handing out free passes to righties lately — .210 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 6 career PA against Peter Lambert, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Rafael Devers (SF) (98) vs RHP Christian Scott: an excellent bat at .125 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.120).
- Lars Nootbaar (AZ) (98) vs RHP Peter Lambert: a strong bat at .105 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.210).
- Carter Jensen (KC) (92) vs RHP Spencer Arrighetti: a solid bat at .099 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.151).
- Roman Anthony (BOS) (89) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: a strong bat at .109 into an arm around league average against the same side (.091), due to bounce back.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (86) vs RHP Tyler Mahle: a strong bat at .119 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.035).
- Oneil Cruz (PIT) (82) vs RHP Walbert Ureña: a strong bat at .107 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.128).
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (81) vs RHP Tyler Mahle: an excellent bat at .122 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.035).
Platoon edges to target
- Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .142 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .126 against righties this year.
- Lars Nootbaar (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .137 against righties this year.
- Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .117 against righties this year.
- Roman Anthony (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .170 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays