Best MLB Walks Matchups — Saturday, September 5, 2026
Top walks spot: Dominic Canzone
Dominic Canzone (SEA) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Jeffrey Springs. The lefty is working counts at .163 BB/PA against lefties this year — and .105 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a walk in about 10% of his trips. And Jeffrey Springs has been tough to walk against lefties lately — .000 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 2 career PA against Jeffrey Springs, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Juan Soto (NYM) (100) vs RHP Anthony Molina: an excellent bat at .138 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.000).
- James Wood (WSH) (100) vs RHP Tyler Glasnow: an excellent bat at .123 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.000).
- Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) (96) vs RHP Ethan Pecko: a strong bat at .112 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.179).
- Lars Nootbaar (AZ) (94) vs RHP Ethan Pecko: a strong bat at .105 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.179).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (92) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: an excellent bat at .127 into an arm around league average against the same side (.088).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (91) vs RHP Taj Bradley: a strong bat at .114 into an arm fairly stingy with walks against the same side (.074), due to bounce back.
- Roman Anthony (BOS) (90) vs RHP Chris Bassitt: a strong bat at .109 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.043).
Platoon edges to target
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .198 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .195 against righties this year.
- Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .142 against righties this year.
- Lars Nootbaar (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .137 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .187 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play Dominic Canzone finished with 0 walks. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays