Best MLB Walks Matchups — Tuesday, September 8, 2026
Top walks spot: James Wood
James Wood (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Casey Mize. The lefty is working counts at .201 BB/PA against righties this year — and .333 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a walk in about 13% of his trips. And Casey Mize has been tough to walk against righties lately — .000 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Casey Mize. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Juan Soto (NYM) (100) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: an excellent bat at .140 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.052).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (91) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: a strong bat at .114 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.143).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (85) vs RHP Hayden Wesneski: a strong bat at .119 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.114).
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) (84) vs RHP Cal Quantrill: a strong bat at .119 into an arm fairly stingy with walks against the same side (.080), hot bat.
- Jake Cronenworth (SD) (84) vs RHP Riley Cornelio: a strong bat at .104 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Aaron Judge (NYY) (83) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: an excellent bat at .136 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Carter Jensen (KC) (81) vs RHP Corbin Burnes: a solid bat at .099 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Platoon edges to target
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .201 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .200 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .169 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .148 against righties this year.
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .143 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play James Wood finished with 0 walks. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays