Who has the best hits matchup today (Tuesday, May 26, 2026)?

Ketel Marte (AZ) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Tyler Mahle. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Tuesday, May 26, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Tuesday, May 26, 2026: Ketel Marte (100), Konnor Griffin (97), Jared Triolo (90), Jhostynxon Garcia (87), Travis Bazzana (84). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Ketel Marte (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .248 against righties this year. Konnor Griffin (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .256 against lefties this year. Jared Triolo (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .250 against lefties this year. Jhostynxon Garcia (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .333 against lefties this year. Travis Bazzana (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .268 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Aaron Nola has been getting tattooed by righties — .295 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Miguel Andujar (SD), and Xander Bogaerts (SD). LHP Jordan Wicks has been vulnerable to lefties — .277 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Konnor Griffin (PIT), Jared Triolo (PIT), and Jhostynxon Garcia (PIT). LHP Kyle Freeland has been vulnerable to lefties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Andy Pages (LAD), Max Muncy (LAD), and Kyle Tucker (LAD). RHP Michael McGreevy has been vulnerable to righties — .270 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: William Contreras (MIL), Jackson Chourio (MIL), and Christian Yelich (MIL).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Tuesday, May 26, 2026

Every hitter on the Tuesday, May 26, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Tuesday, May 26, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 4/5 (80%) on 1+ hit, against 64% on the season.

Top 5

4/580%

season 64%

Top 10

9/1090%

season 67%

Full slate

163/27060%

season 56%

Top call Ketel Marte came through. Jhostynxon Garcia didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 6–3

WSHaway

CLEhomeTop matchup84 Final · 1–6

TBaway

BALhomeTop matchup71 Final · 10–6

LAAaway

DEThomeTop matchup70 Final · 1–12

CHCaway

PIThomeTop matchup97 Final · 7–6

ATLaway

BOShomeTop matchup66 Final · 1–8

MIAaway

TORhomeTop matchup84 Final · 7–2

CINaway

NYMhomeTop matchup77 Final · 5–3

MINaway

CWShomeTop matchup61 Final · 15–1

NYYaway

KChomeTop matchup70 Final · 0–6

STLaway

MILhomeTop matchup82 Final · 7–10

HOUaway

TEXhomeTop matchup59 Final · 4–1

SEAaway

ATHhomeTop matchup78 Final · 4–3

PHIaway

SDhomeTop matchup82 Final · 7–5

AZaway

SFhomeTop matchup100 Final · 6–15

COLaway

LADhomeTop matchup77

PosSort

#Hitter · MatchupScore

163 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Andy PagesCF
LADvsCOL· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #11
T1
Amed Rosario3B
NYY@KC· 4-for-6
4HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T1
Michael Harris IICF
ATL@BOS· 4-for-4
4HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #172
4
Trent GrishamCF
NYY@KC· 3-for-7
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T4
Christian YelichDH
MILvsSTL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T4
Kevin McGonigleSS
DETvsLAA· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #68
T4
Ben RiceDH
NYY@KC· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #76
T4
James WoodRF
WSH@CLE· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #78
T4
Mookie BettsSS
LADvsCOL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #86
T4
George SpringerDH
TORvsMIA· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #97
T4
Jonathan Aranda1B
TB@BAL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #114
T4
Zach NetoSS
LAA@DET· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #130
T4
Anthony VolpeSS
NYY@KC· 3-for-6
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #149
T4
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAA@DET· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #154
T4
Brayan RocchioSS
CLEvsWSH· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #175
T4
JJ BledayLF
CIN@NYM· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #186
T4
Austin WellsC
NYY@KC· 3-for-6
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #245
T4
Evan CarterCF
TEXvsHOU· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #246
19
Jesús SánchezRF
TORvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #6
T19
William ContrerasC
MILvsSTL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #7
T19
Casey SchmittLF
SFvsAZ· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #9
T19
Elly De La CruzSS
CIN@NYM· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #15
T19
Nick Gonzales3B
PITvsCHC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #16
T19
Chandler SimpsonLF
TB@BAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #20
T19
Paul Goldschmidt1B
NYY@KC· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #24
T19
Daulton VarshoCF
TORvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #28
T19
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsCOL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T19
Sal Stewart1B
CIN@NYM· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #50
T19
Willson Contreras1B
BOSvsATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #54
T19
Brooks Lee3B
MIN@CWS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #73
T19
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYY@KC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #81
T19
Leody TaverasCF
BALvsTB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #83
T19
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@ATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T19
Miguel Rojas2B
LADvsCOL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #93
T19
Willy AdamesSS
SFvsAZ· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #98
T19
Jake Bauers1B
MILvsSTL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #103
T19
Jake McCarthyLF
COL@LAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T19
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOU@TEX· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T19
Jarren DuranLF
BOSvsATL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #131
T19
Spencer Horwitz1B
PITvsCHC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #132
T19
Mitch GarverC
SEA@ATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #137
T19
Trea TurnerSS
PHI@SD· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #138
T19
Eugenio SuárezDH
CIN@NYM· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #139
T19
Dane MyersCF
CIN@NYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #144
T19
Will SmithC
LADvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #161
T19
Brandon ValenzuelaC
TORvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #168
T19
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATHvsSEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #169
T19
Colson MontgomerySS
CWSvsMIN· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #170
T19
Keibert RuizC
WSH@CLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #174
T19
Carson KellyC
CHC@PIT· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #183
T19
Isiah Kiner-Falefa2B
BOSvsATL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #190
T19
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsHOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #192
T19
Zack Gelof3B
ATHvsSEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #204
T19
Tyler StephensonC
CIN@NYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #210
T19
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@TOR· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #213
T19
Chase Meidroth2B
CWSvsMIN· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #217
T19
Jackson Holliday2B
BALvsTB· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #226
T19
Bryan TorresLF
STL@MIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #231
T19
Lane ThomasLF
KCvsNYY· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #248
T19
Luis TorrensC
NYMvsCIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #254
T19
J.T. RealmutoC
PHI@SD· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #262
T19
Logan O'HoppeC
LAA@DET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.7 H, #270
63
Ketel Marte2B
AZ@SF· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #1
T63
Konnor GriffinSS
PITvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #2
T63
Jared TrioloSS
PITvsCHC· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #3
T63
Travis Bazzana2B
CLEvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T63
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SDvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #8
T63
Julio RodríguezCF
SEA@ATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #10
T63
Blake DunnCF
CIN@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #12
T63
Bryce Harper1B
PHI@SD· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #13
T63
Jackson ChourioLF
MILvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #14
T63
Xander BogaertsSS
SDvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #18
T63
Sterlin ThompsonRF
COL@LAD· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #22
T63
Junior Caminero3B
TB@BAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #27
T63
Kyle TuckerRF
LADvsCOL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T63
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOSvsATL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T63
Mauricio DubónLF
ATL@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T63
Ryan WaldschmidtCF
AZ@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T63
Brett SullivanC
COL@LAD· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T63
Juan SotoLF
NYMvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T63
Yandy DíazDH
TB@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T63
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEA@ATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #52
T63
Brandon NimmoRF
TEXvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T63
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEA@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
T63
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHI@SD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #58
T63
Yohendrick PiñangoLF
TORvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #61
T63
Joc PedersonDH
TEXvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #62
T63
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOU@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #63
T63
Ezequiel TovarSS
COL@LAD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #64
T63
Matt Olson1B
ATL@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #65
T63
Samuel BasalloC
BALvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #66
T63
Iván HerreraDH
STL@MIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #69
T63
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF
ATL@BOS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #70
T63
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZ@SF· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #74
T63
CJ AbramsSS
WSH@CLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #77
T63
Ernie Clement2B
TORvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #80
T63
Tyler FreemanRF
COL@LAD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T63
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PITvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #85
T63
A.J. EwingCF
NYMvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #87
T63
Ryan ViladeRF
TB@BAL· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T63
Manny Machado3B
SDvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #91
T63
Michael Busch1B
CHC@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #92
T63
Chase DeLauterRF
CLEvsWSH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #102
T63
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #105
T63
Rafael Devers1B
SFvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #109
T63
Marcell OzunaDH
PITvsCHC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #110
T63
Kyle Manzardo1B
CLEvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #111
T63
Gabriel MorenoC
AZ@SF· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #113
T63
Otto LopezSS
MIA@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #116
T63
Braxton FulfordDH
COL@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T63
José Ramírez3B
CLEvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #120
T63
Ildemaro Vargas1B
AZ@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #121
T63
Jake Burger1B
TEXvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #124
T63
Jeremiah Jackson2B
BALvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #125
T63
Nico Hoerner2B
CHC@PIT· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #126
T63
Bo Bichette3B
NYMvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #127
T63
Alec Burleson1B
STL@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #128
T63
Austin MartinRF
MIN@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #129
T63
Carter JensenC
KCvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #134
T63
Josh Jung3B
TEXvsHOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #135
T63
Ramón LaureanoLF
SDvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #136
T63
Kody Clemens1B
MIN@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #140
T63
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATL@BOS· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #145
T63
Austin Riley3B
ATL@BOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #147
T63
Rob RefsnyderDH
SEA@ATH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #148
T63
Garrett MitchellCF
MILvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #152
T63
Munetaka Murakami1B
CWSvsMIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #153
T63
Alec Bohm3B
PHI@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #156
T63
Bryce EldridgeDH
SFvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #159
T63
Jahmai JonesDH
DETvsLAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #164
T63
Jose SiriCF
LAA@DET· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #167
T63
Ian HappLF
CHC@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #171
T63
Jac CaglianoneRF
KCvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #173
T63
Mickey GasperC
BOSvsATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #179
T63
Colton CowserCF
BALvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #180
T63
Zach DezenzoLF
HOU@TEX· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #181
T63
Andrés Chaparro1B
WSH@CLE· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #182
T63
Victor Mesa Jr.RF
TB@BAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #185
T63
Dylan CrewsRF
WSH@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #188
T63
Blaze Alexander3B
BALvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #189
T63
Daylen LileLF
WSH@CLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #193
T63
Sal FrelickRF
MILvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #195
T63
Matt McLain2B
CIN@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #199
T63
Cam SmithRF
HOU@TEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #203
T63
Victor Scott IICF
STL@MIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #207
T63
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TORvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #208
T63
Luke Keaschall2B
MIN@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #215
T63
Kyle Karros3B
COL@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #220
T63
Nick Sogard2B
BOSvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #223
T63
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIA@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #224
T63
Jorge SolerDH
LAA@DET· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #227
T63
Jakob MarseeCF
MIA@TOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #230
T63
Oswald Peraza2B
LAA@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #234
T63
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #235
T63
Jacob YoungCF
WSH@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #236
T63
Troy JohnstonRF
COL@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #240
T63
Jo AdellRF
LAA@DET· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #249
T63
Rikuu NishidaRF
CWSvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #251
T63
Donovan Walton2B
LAA@DET· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #252
T63
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSH@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #259
T63
Brice MatthewsCF
HOU@TEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #261
T63
Matt VierlingCF
DETvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #268
T63
Wenceel PérezRF
DETvsLAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #269

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Tuesday, May 26, 2026

Ketel Marte (AZ) is the top hits matchup on the Tuesday, May 26, 2026 board at 100, with Konnor Griffin (PIT) and Jared Triolo (PIT) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Ketel Marte

Ketel Marte (AZ) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tyler Mahle. The lefty is hitting .248 H/PA against righties this year — and .463 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 29% of his trips. And Tyler Mahle has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .375 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Tyler Mahle too — .500 across 16 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Konnor Griffin (PIT) (97) vs LHP Jordan Wicks: a strong bat at .254 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
Jared Triolo (PIT) (90) vs LHP Jordan Wicks: a solid bat at .248 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
Jhostynxon Garcia (PIT) (87) vs LHP Jordan Wicks: a strong bat at .253 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
Travis Bazzana (CLE) (84) vs RHP Cade Cavalli: an excellent bat at .286 into an arm tough on the same side (.185).
Jesús Sánchez (TOR) (84) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: an excellent bat at .290 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.355).
William Contreras (MIL) (82) vs RHP Michael McGreevy: an excellent bat at .275 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.476), hot bat.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (82) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a solid bat at .235 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.526).

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Aaron Nola has been getting tattooed by righties — .295 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Miguel Andujar (SD), and Xander Bogaerts (SD).
LHP Jordan Wicks has been vulnerable to lefties — .277 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Konnor Griffin (PIT), Jared Triolo (PIT), and Jhostynxon Garcia (PIT).
LHP Kyle Freeland has been vulnerable to lefties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Andy Pages (LAD), Max Muncy (LAD), and Kyle Tucker (LAD).
RHP Michael McGreevy has been vulnerable to righties — .270 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: William Contreras (MIL), Jackson Chourio (MIL), and Christian Yelich (MIL).

Platoon edges to target

Ketel Marte (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .248 against righties this year.
Konnor Griffin (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .256 against lefties this year.
Jared Triolo (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .250 against lefties this year.
Jhostynxon Garcia (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .333 against lefties this year.
Travis Bazzana (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .268 against righties this year.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Ketel Marte (AZ), William Contreras (MIL), Corbin Carroll (AZ), Junior Caminero (TB), Willson Contreras (BOS), and Ernie Clement (TOR). Cold but due to bounce back: Konnor Griffin (PIT), Jared Triolo (PIT), Jhostynxon Garcia (PIT), Bryce Harper (PHI), and Nick Gonzales (PIT).

How it played out

9 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Ketel Marte finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Tuesday, May 26, 2026)?: Ketel Marte (AZ) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Tyler Mahle. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Tuesday, May 26, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Tuesday, May 26, 2026: Ketel Marte (100), Konnor Griffin (97), Jared Triolo (90), Jhostynxon Garcia (87), Travis Bazzana (84). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Tuesday, May 26, 2026?: Yes — Ketel Marte got 1 hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Ketel Marte (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .248 against righties this year. Konnor Griffin (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .256 against lefties this year. Jared Triolo (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .250 against lefties this year. Jhostynxon Garcia (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .333 against lefties this year. Travis Bazzana (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .268 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Aaron Nola has been getting tattooed by righties — .295 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Miguel Andujar (SD), and Xander Bogaerts (SD). LHP Jordan Wicks has been vulnerable to lefties — .277 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Konnor Griffin (PIT), Jared Triolo (PIT), and Jhostynxon Garcia (PIT). LHP Kyle Freeland has been vulnerable to lefties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Andy Pages (LAD), Max Muncy (LAD), and Kyle Tucker (LAD). RHP Michael McGreevy has been vulnerable to righties — .270 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: William Contreras (MIL), Jackson Chourio (MIL), and Christian Yelich (MIL).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Ketel Marte (AZ), William Contreras (MIL), Corbin Carroll (AZ), Junior Caminero (TB), Willson Contreras (BOS), and Ernie Clement (TOR). Cold but due to bounce back: Konnor Griffin (PIT), Jared Triolo (PIT), Jhostynxon Garcia (PIT), Bryce Harper (PHI), and Nick Gonzales (PIT).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.