Who has the best hits matchup today (Wednesday, May 27, 2026)?

Orlando Arcia (MIN) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP David Sandlin. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Wednesday, May 27, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Wednesday, May 27, 2026: Orlando Arcia (100), Spencer Horwitz (99), Ketel Marte (96), Shohei Ohtani (93), Paul Goldschmidt (93). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Wednesday, May 27, 2026?

No — Orlando Arcia didn't record a hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Spencer Horwitz (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .252 against righties this year. Ketel Marte (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .244 against righties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .210 against righties this year. Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .264 against lefties this year. Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .295 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Mike Burrows has been vulnerable to righties — .277 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Sam Haggerty (TEX), Brandon Nimmo (TEX), and Joc Pederson (TEX). RHP Bryce Elder has been vulnerable to righties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Willson Contreras (BOS), and Isiah Kiner-Falefa (BOS). RHP Walker Buehler has been vulnerable to righties — .268 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Bryce Harper (PHI), Kyle Schwarber (PHI), and Bryson Stott (PHI).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Wednesday, May 27, 2026

Every hitter on the Wednesday, May 27, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Wednesday, May 27, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 4/5 (80%) on 1+ hit, against 64% on the season.

Top 5

4/580%

season 64%

Top 10

9/1090%

season 67%

Full slate

144/27053%

season 56%

Top call Spencer Horwitz came through. Orlando Arcia didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 1–2

MIAaway

TORhomeTop matchup84 Final · 2–3

WSHaway

CLEhomeTop matchup74 Final · 1–2

STLaway

MILhomeTop matchup82 Final · 9–1

SEAaway

ATHhomeTop matchup80 Final · 3–2

AZaway

SFhomeTop matchup96 Final · 3–0

PHIaway

SDhomeTop matchup80 Final · 2–11

TBaway

BALhomeTop matchup88 Final · 0–4

LAAaway

DEThomeTop matchup71 Final · 10–4

CHCaway

PIThomeTop matchup99 Final · 0–8

ATLaway

BOShomeTop matchup91 Final · 2–4

CINaway

NYMhomeTop matchup90 Final · 2–15

MINaway

CWShomeTop matchup100 Final · 7–0

NYYaway

KChomeTop matchup93 Final · 4–3

HOUaway

TEXhomeTop matchup69 Final · 1–4

COLaway

LADhomeTop matchup93

PosSort

#Hitter · MatchupScore

144 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Otto LopezSS
MIA@TOR· 4-for-4
4HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #84
T1
Jarren DuranLF
BOSvsATL· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #159
3
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOSvsATL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #6
T3
Luis Arraez2B
SFvsAZ· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #18
T3
Xavier Edwards2B
MIA@TOR· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #22
T3
Blake DunnCF
CIN@NYM· 3-for-6
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T3
Randal GrichukDH
CWSvsMIN· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T3
Joc PedersonDH
TEXvsHOU· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T3
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PITvsCHC· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #59
T3
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEA@ATH· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T3
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOU@TEX· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #85
T3
Adley RutschmanC
BALvsTB· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #135
T3
Hunter FeducciaC
TB@BAL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T3
Blaze Alexander3B
BALvsTB· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #234
T3
Sam AntonacciLF
CWSvsMIN· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #245
T3
Spencer Torkelson1B
DETvsLAA· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #264
17
Ketel Marte2B
AZ@SF· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #3
T17
Paul Goldschmidt1B
NYY@KC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T17
Carson BengeRF
NYMvsCIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #7
T17
Willy AdamesSS
SFvsAZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #10
T17
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SDvsPHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #15
T17
Andy PagesCF
LADvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #17
T17
Chase Meidroth2B
CWSvsMIN· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #24
T17
Kevin McGonigleSS
DETvsLAA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T17
Juan SotoLF
NYMvsCIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #41
T17
Ben RiceDH
NYY@KC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #44
T17
Travis Bazzana2B
CLEvsWSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #54
T17
Alex Bregman3B
CHC@PIT· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
T17
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #56
T17
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHI@SD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #57
T17
Taylor TrammellCF
HOU@TEX· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #73
T17
Coby Mayo3B
BALvsTB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T17
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@ATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #91
T17
Chase DeLauterRF
CLEvsWSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #92
T17
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@MIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #105
T17
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TORvsMIA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #110
T17
Nico Hoerner2B
CHC@PIT· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #113
T17
Maikel Garcia3B
KCvsNYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #116
T17
Munetaka Murakami1B
CWSvsMIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #120
T17
CJ AbramsSS
WSH@CLE· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #124
T17
Angel MartínezLF
CLEvsWSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #140
T17
Jorge MateoSS
ATL@BOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #151
T17
Carson KellyC
CHC@PIT· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #160
T17
Dillon DinglerC
DETvsLAA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #179
T17
Ryan McMahon3B
NYY@KC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #182
T17
Ian HappLF
CHC@PIT· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #186
T17
Darell HernaizSS
ATHvsSEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #196
T17
Tristan PetersCF
CWSvsMIN· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #214
T17
Zack Gelof3B
ATHvsSEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #229
T17
Edgar QueroC
CWSvsMIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #230
T17
Leody TaverasCF
BALvsTB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #233
T17
Colt EmersonSS
SEA@ATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #239
T17
Cole Young2B
SEA@ATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #247
T17
Jackson MerrillCF
SDvsPHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #252
T17
Dansby SwansonSS
CHC@PIT· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #258
T17
Marcelo Mayer2B
BOSvsATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #267
57
Spencer Horwitz1B
PITvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #2
T57
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #4
T57
Chandler SimpsonLF
TB@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #8
T57
Willson Contreras1B
BOSvsATL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #9
T57
Nathan LukesRF
TORvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #11
T57
Brandon Lowe2B
PITvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #12
T57
Julio RodríguezCF
SEA@ATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #16
T57
Christian YelichDH
MILvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #20
T57
Carlos CortesRF
ATHvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #23
T57
Miguel Vargas3B
CWSvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T57
James WoodRF
WSH@CLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T57
Victor Mesa Jr.RF
TB@BAL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T57
Mauricio DubónLF
ATL@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T57
Riley GreeneLF
DETvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #46
T57
Brandon NimmoRF
TEXvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #49
T57
Nick FortesC
TB@BAL· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #51
T57
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOU@TEX· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #61
T57
Victor RoblesRF
SEA@ATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #64
T57
Shea LangeliersC
ATHvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #69
T57
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEA@ATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #70
T57
Kyle Manzardo1B
CLEvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T57
Curtis Mead3B
WSH@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T57
Hyeseong KimSS
LADvsCOL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #94
T57
JJ Wetherholt2B
STL@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #96
T57
Xander BogaertsSS
SDvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T57
Michael Busch1B
CHC@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #100
T57
Jared Young1B
NYMvsCIN· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T57
Konnor GriffinSS
PITvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #103
T57
Sal Stewart1B
CIN@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #104
T57
Will SmithC
LADvsCOL· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #109
T57
Ozzie Albies2B
ATL@BOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #115
T57
Tyler FreemanRF
COL@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T57
Richie Palacios2B
TB@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #119
T57
Trent GrishamCF
NYY@KC· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #123
T57
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZ@SF· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #125
T57
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsTB· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #128
T57
Isiah Kiner-Falefa2B
BOSvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #131
T57
Garrett MitchellCF
MILvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #132
T57
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHC@PIT· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #134
T57
Josh Jung3B
TEXvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #136
T57
Kody Clemens1B
MIN@CWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #138
T57
Daniel SchneemannCF
CLEvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #144
T57
Iván HerreraDH
STL@MIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #146
T57
Alex CallLF
LADvsCOL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #147
T57
Bryan TorresLF
STL@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #148
T57
Trea TurnerSS
PHI@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #152
T57
Ramón LaureanoLF
SDvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #153
T57
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #154
T57
Luis RengifoLF
MILvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #157
T57
Henry BolteCF
ATHvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #158
T57
Nick CastellanosRF
SDvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #163
T57
Alec Bohm3B
PHI@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #164
T57
Adrian Del CastilloDH
AZ@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #166
T57
Luke Keaschall2B
MIN@CWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #168
T57
Colton CowserCF
BALvsTB· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #171
T57
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATHvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #173
T57
Chadwick TrompC
ATL@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #174
T57
Jorge SolerDH
LAA@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #180
T57
Salvador PerezDH
KCvsNYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #183
T57
Spencer Steer1B
CIN@NYM· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #185
T57
Brett Baty3B
NYMvsCIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #188
T57
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOSvsATL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #189
T57
Justin CrawfordCF
PHI@SD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #193
T57
Michael Massey2B
KCvsNYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #194
T57
Ildemaro Vargas1B
AZ@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #197
T57
José CaballeroSS
NYY@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #198
T57
Mickey GasperC
BOSvsATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #202
T57
Michael ConfortoDH
CHC@PIT· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #203
T57
Masataka YoshidaDH
BOSvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #205
T57
Cedric MullinsCF
TB@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #210
T57
Marcell OzunaDH
PITvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #213
T57
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHC@PIT· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #220
T57
Andrés GiménezSS
TORvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #221
T57
Nolan Gorman3B
STL@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #223
T57
Nick Sogard2B
BOSvsATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #225
T57
J.T. RealmutoC
PHI@SD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #226
T57
Christian VázquezC
HOU@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #236
T57
Austin HedgesC
CLEvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #238
T57
Brice MatthewsCF
HOU@TEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #240
T57
Masyn WinnSS
STL@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #243
T57
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TORvsMIA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #244
T57
Brayan RocchioSS
CLEvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #249
T57
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #250
T57
Donovan Walton2B
LAA@DET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #254
T57
Luisangel AcuñaSS
CWSvsMIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #255
T57
Luis TorrensC
NYMvsCIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #257
T57
Drew MillasC
WSH@CLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #259
T57
Danny JansenC
TEXvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #268

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Wednesday, May 27, 2026

Orlando Arcia (MIN) is the top hits matchup on the Wednesday, May 27, 2026 board at 100, with Spencer Horwitz (PIT) and Ketel Marte (AZ) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Orlando Arcia

Orlando Arcia (MIN) tops the board at 100, facing RHP David Sandlin. The righty is hitting .556 H/PA against righties this year — and .556 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 28% of his trips. And David Sandlin has been thin against righties lately. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against David Sandlin. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Spencer Horwitz (PIT) (99) vs RHP Jameson Taillon: an excellent bat at .272 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.320).
Ketel Marte (AZ) (96) vs RHP Trevor McDonald: an excellent bat at .289 into an arm tough on the same side (.130), hot bat.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (93) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a strong bat at .260 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.222).
Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) (93) vs LHP Noah Cameron: an excellent bat at .285 into an arm tough on the same side (.188).
Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (91) vs RHP Bryce Elder: a strong bat at .267 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333).
Carson Benge (NYM) (90) vs LHP Andrew Abbott: a strong bat at .265 into an arm tough on the same side (.067).
Chandler Simpson (TB) (88) vs RHP Trey Gibson: a strong bat at .261 into an arm with little track record against the same side.

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Mike Burrows has been vulnerable to righties — .277 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Sam Haggerty (TEX), Brandon Nimmo (TEX), and Joc Pederson (TEX).
RHP Bryce Elder has been vulnerable to righties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Willson Contreras (BOS), and Isiah Kiner-Falefa (BOS).
RHP Walker Buehler has been vulnerable to righties — .268 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Bryce Harper (PHI), Kyle Schwarber (PHI), and Bryson Stott (PHI).

Platoon edges to target

Spencer Horwitz (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .252 against righties this year.
Ketel Marte (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .244 against righties this year.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .210 against righties this year.
Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .264 against lefties this year.
Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .295 against righties this year.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Orlando Arcia (MIN), Ketel Marte (AZ), Willson Contreras (BOS), Willy Adames (SF), William Contreras (MIL), and Kevin McGonigle (DET). Cold but due to bounce back: Carlos Cortes (ATH), Brice Turang (MIL), Miguel Vargas (CWS), Nick Kurtz (ATH), and Oliver Dunn (TB).

How it played out

9 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Orlando Arcia finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Wednesday, May 27, 2026)?: Orlando Arcia (MIN) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP David Sandlin. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Wednesday, May 27, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Wednesday, May 27, 2026: Orlando Arcia (100), Spencer Horwitz (99), Ketel Marte (96), Shohei Ohtani (93), Paul Goldschmidt (93). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Wednesday, May 27, 2026?: No — Orlando Arcia didn't record a hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Spencer Horwitz (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .252 against righties this year. Ketel Marte (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .244 against righties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .210 against righties this year. Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .264 against lefties this year. Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .295 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Mike Burrows has been vulnerable to righties — .277 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Sam Haggerty (TEX), Brandon Nimmo (TEX), and Joc Pederson (TEX). RHP Bryce Elder has been vulnerable to righties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Willson Contreras (BOS), and Isiah Kiner-Falefa (BOS). RHP Walker Buehler has been vulnerable to righties — .268 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Bryce Harper (PHI), Kyle Schwarber (PHI), and Bryson Stott (PHI).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Orlando Arcia (MIN), Ketel Marte (AZ), Willson Contreras (BOS), Willy Adames (SF), William Contreras (MIL), and Kevin McGonigle (DET). Cold but due to bounce back: Carlos Cortes (ATH), Brice Turang (MIL), Miguel Vargas (CWS), Nick Kurtz (ATH), and Oliver Dunn (TB).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.