Who has the best hits matchup today (Sunday, May 31, 2026)?

Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Jacob Lopez. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Sunday, May 31, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Sunday, May 31, 2026: Paul Goldschmidt (100), Luis Arraez (99), Willi Castro (95), Jonah Cox (94), Rafael Devers (93). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Sunday, May 31, 2026?

Yes — Paul Goldschmidt got 1 hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .281 against lefties this year. Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .301 against righties this year. Willi Castro (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .327 against lefties this year. Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .236 against righties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .217 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

LHP Jordan Wicks has been getting tattooed by lefties — .301 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: JJ Wetherholt (STL), Iván Herrera (STL), and Victor Scott II (STL). RHP Tanner Gordon has been vulnerable to righties — .287 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (SF), Jonah Cox (SF), and Rafael Devers (SF). LHP Matthew Liberatore has been vulnerable to lefties — .287 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Nico Hoerner (CHC), and Alex Bregman (CHC). LHP Ranger Suarez has been vulnerable to lefties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Travis Bazzana (CLE), Chase DeLauter (CLE), and José Ramírez (CLE).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Sunday, May 31, 2026

Every hitter on the Sunday, May 31, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Sunday, May 31, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 5/5 (100%) on 1+ hit, against 63% on the season.

Top 5

5/5100%

season 63%

Top 10

8/1080%

season 67%

Full slate

151/27056%

season 56%

Top call Paul Goldschmidt came through. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 5–9

TORaway

BALhomeTop matchup84 Final · 2–4

SDaway

WSHhomeTop matchup73 Final · 3–9

MINaway

PIThomeTop matchup69 Final · 9–4

BOSaway

CLEhomeTop matchup85 Final · 2–5

LAAaway

TBhomeTop matchup76 Final · 4–6

ATLaway

CINhomeTop matchup76 Final · 1–10

MIAaway

NYMhomeTop matchup77 Final · 1–2

DETaway

CWShomeTop matchup73 Final · 2–0

MILaway

HOUhomeTop matchup63 Final · 3–6

KCaway

TEXhomeTop matchup80 Final · 19–6

SFaway

COLhomeTop matchup99 Final · 13–8

NYYaway

ATHhomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–3

AZaway

SEAhomeTop matchup75 Final · 1–9

PHIaway

LADhomeTop matchup83 Final · 1–5

CHCaway

STLhomeTop matchup80

PosSort

#Hitter · MatchupScore

151 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Rafael Devers1B
SF@COL· 4-for-6
4HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T1
Bryce EldridgeDH
SF@COL· 4-for-6
4HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #92
3
Willy AdamesSS
SF@COL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #6
T3
Tyler FreemanRF
COLvsSF· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #17
T3
Chase DeLauterRF
CLEvsBOS· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #19
T3
David FryRF
CLEvsBOS· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #161
T3
Jackson MerrillCF
SD@WSH· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #166
8
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsPHI· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #9
T8
Josh Jung3B
TEXvsKC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #12
T8
Ernie Clement2B
TOR@BAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #13
T8
Nathan LukesRF
TOR@BAL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #14
T8
JJ Wetherholt2B
STLvsCHC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #18
T8
Michael Harris IICF
ATL@CIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #23
T8
Iván HerreraDH
STLvsCHC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T8
Ben RiceDH
NYY@ATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #44
T8
Cody BellingerLF
NYY@ATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #58
T8
Nick Kurtz1B
ATHvsNYY· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #65
T8
Brooks Lee3B
MIN@PIT· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #71
T8
CJ AbramsSS
WSHvsSD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #76
T8
Ryan O'HearnRF
PITvsMIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #80
T8
Gunnar HendersonSS
BALvsTOR· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #85
T8
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KC@TEX· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T8
Masataka YoshidaDH
BOS@CLE· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #97
T8
Anthony VolpeSS
NYY@ATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #105
T8
Kyle TuckerRF
LADvsPHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #116
T8
Samuel BasalloC
BALvsTOR· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T8
Troy JohnstonRF
COLvsSF· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #122
T8
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsLAA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #129
T8
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsTOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #137
T8
Tristan PetersCF
CWSvsDET· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #138
T8
Kyle Karros3B
COLvsSF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #142
T8
Yohendrick PiñangoLF
TOR@BAL· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #145
T8
Logan O'HoppeC
LAA@TB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #149
T8
Brent RookerDH
ATHvsNYY· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #153
T8
Michael Busch1B
CHC@STL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #157
T8
Kyle HigashiokaC
TEXvsKC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #159
T8
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOS@CLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #160
T8
Spencer Torkelson1B
DET@CWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #168
T8
Michael Massey2B
KC@TEX· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #174
T8
Colton CowserCF
BALvsTOR· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #177
T8
Max Muncy3B
LADvsPHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #178
T8
Blaze Alexander3B
BALvsTOR· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #179
T8
Keibert RuizC
WSHvsSD· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #206
T8
Zack Gelof3B
ATHvsNYY· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #209
T8
Nicky Lopez2B
TEXvsKC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #212
T8
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF
ATL@CIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #214
T8
Alex Freeland2B
LADvsPHI· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #216
T8
JJ BledayLF
CINvsATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #218
T8
Spencer Steer1B
CINvsATL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #224
T8
Brayan RocchioSS
CLEvsBOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #225
T8
Carlos NarváezC
BOS@CLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #241
T8
Jhonny PeredaC
SEAvsAZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #245
T8
Marcus Semien2B
NYMvsMIA· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #246
T8
Taylor WallsSS
TBvsLAA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #253
T8
Luis TorrensC
NYMvsMIA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #258
56
Paul Goldschmidt1B
NYY@ATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #1
T56
Luis Arraez2B
SF@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #2
T56
Willi Castro2B
COLvsSF· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #3
T56
Jonah CoxCF
SF@COL· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #4
T56
Isiah Kiner-Falefa2B
BOS@CLE· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #7
T56
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHC@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #11
T56
Nico Hoerner2B
CHC@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #16
T56
Carlos CortesRF
ATHvsNYY· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #22
T56
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #24
T56
Jarren DuranLF
BOS@CLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T56
Andy PagesCF
LADvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #27
T56
James WoodRF
WSHvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #31
T56
Alex Bregman3B
CHC@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T56
Carson BengeRF
NYMvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T56
Spencer Horwitz1B
PITvsMIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T56
José Ramírez3B
CLEvsBOS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T56
Nelson VelázquezLF
STLvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #46
T56
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEAvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #47
T56
Alec Burleson1B
STLvsCHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #49
T56
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOUvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #50
T56
Drew GilbertCF
SF@COL· 1-for-6
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #51
T56
Matt Chapman3B
SF@COL· 1-for-6
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #52
T56
Nick Gonzales3B
PITvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #54
T56
Jordan WalkerRF
STLvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #56
T56
Jake Burger1B
TEXvsKC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #59
T56
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #60
T56
Luke RaleyRF
SEAvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #66
T56
Josh Naylor1B
SEAvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #68
T56
Brandon Lowe2B
PITvsMIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #72
T56
Jesus RodriguezC
SF@COL· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #75
T56
José CaballeroSS
NYY@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #86
T56
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@CWS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #87
T56
Charles McAdoo2B
TOR@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #100
T56
Andrés Chaparro1B
WSHvsSD· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T56
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEAvsAZ· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #102
T56
Mike TroutCF
LAA@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #103
T56
Jorge SolerDH
LAA@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #109
T56
Michael ConfortoDH
CHC@STL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #110
T56
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #111
T56
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAA@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #112
T56
Victor Mesa Jr.RF
TBvsLAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #121
T56
Jonah HeimC
ATHvsNYY· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #125
T56
Corbin CarrollRF
AZ@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #126
T56
Alec Bohm3B
PHI@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #128
T56
Ty France1B
SD@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #130
T56
Jo AdellRF
LAA@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #132
T56
Jac CaglianoneRF
KC@TEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #133
T56
Masyn WinnSS
STLvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #134
T56
Ozzie Albies2B
ATL@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #135
T56
Luke Keaschall2B
MIN@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #136
T56
Mark Vientos1B
NYMvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #139
T56
Oswald Peraza2B
LAA@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #141
T56
Jacob GonzalezSS
CWSvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #156
T56
Xander BogaertsSS
SD@WSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #158
T56
Cole Young2B
SEAvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #162
T56
Colson MontgomerySS
CWSvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #164
T56
Trent GrishamCF
NYY@ATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #165
T56
Connor WongC
BOS@CLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #167
T56
Eugenio SuárezDH
CINvsATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #171
T56
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #172
T56
Alex CallLF
LADvsPHI· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #173
T56
Chase Meidroth2B
CWSvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #175
T56
Bryson Stott2B
PHI@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #183
T56
Rhys Hoskins1B
CLEvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #184
T56
Caleb Durbin3B
BOS@CLE· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #185
T56
Victor RoblesRF
SEAvsAZ· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #187
T56
Dalton RushingC
LADvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #193
T56
Alejandro OsunaLF
TEXvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #194
T56
Jeff McNeil2B
ATHvsNYY· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #195
T56
Braxton FulfordDH
COLvsSF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #196
T56
Gabriel MorenoC
AZ@SEA· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #199
T56
Jake MangumCF
PITvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T56
Colt EmersonSS
SEAvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #205
T56
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATHvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #207
T56
Max SchuemannLF
NYY@ATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #211
T56
Jake MeyersCF
HOUvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #215
T56
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATL@CIN· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #217
T56
P.J. HigginsC
CINvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #220
T56
Brett Baty3B
NYMvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #222
T56
Darell HernaizSS
ATHvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #223
T56
Marcelo Mayer2B
BOS@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #227
T56
José TenaDH
WSHvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #231
T56
Nick CastellanosRF
SD@WSH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #234
T56
Michael HelmanCF
TEXvsKC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #237
T56
Austin HedgesC
CLEvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #238
T56
Rafael MarchánC
PHI@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #239
T56
Jared TrioloSS
PITvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #240
T56
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #243
T56
Alex JacksonC
MIN@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #244
T56
Donovan Walton2B
LAA@TB· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #247
T56
Ildemaro Vargas1B
AZ@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #248
T56
Lane ThomasLF
KC@TEX· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #256
T56
David Hamilton3B
MIL@HOU· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #261
T56
Justin CrawfordCF
PHI@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #263
T56
Henry DavisC
PITvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #264
T56
Will BensonRF
CINvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #267

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Sunday, May 31, 2026

Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) is the top hits matchup on the Sunday, May 31, 2026 board at 100, with Luis Arraez (SF) and Willi Castro (COL) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Paul Goldschmidt

Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Jacob Lopez. The righty is hitting .281 H/PA against lefties this year — and .500 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 29% of his trips. And Jacob Lopez has been getting tattooed by lefties lately — .333 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Jacob Lopez too — .500 across 2 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Luis Arraez (SF) (99) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: an excellent bat at .277 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.375), hitter's park.
Willi Castro (COL) (95) vs LHP Robbie Ray: an excellent bat at .284 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.297), hitter's park.
Jonah Cox (SF) (94) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .245 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.321), hitter's park.
Rafael Devers (SF) (93) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .247 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.375), hitter's park.
Willy Adames (SF) (86) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a solid bat at .248 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.321), hitter's park, due to bounce back.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa (BOS) (85) vs RHP Tanner Bibee: an excellent bat at .299 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.278), hot bat.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) (84) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: a strong bat at .262 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.286).

Pitchers getting tattooed today

LHP Jordan Wicks has been getting tattooed by lefties — .301 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: JJ Wetherholt (STL), Iván Herrera (STL), and Victor Scott II (STL).
RHP Tanner Gordon has been vulnerable to righties — .287 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (SF), Jonah Cox (SF), and Rafael Devers (SF).
LHP Matthew Liberatore has been vulnerable to lefties — .287 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Nico Hoerner (CHC), and Alex Bregman (CHC).
LHP Ranger Suarez has been vulnerable to lefties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Travis Bazzana (CLE), Chase DeLauter (CLE), and José Ramírez (CLE).

Platoon edges to target

Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .281 against lefties this year.
Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .301 against righties this year.
Willi Castro (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .327 against lefties this year.
Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .236 against righties this year.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .217 against righties this year.

Best parks to hit in today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Luis Arraez (SF) at 99.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Paul Goldschmidt (NYY), Isiah Kiner-Falefa (BOS), Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Josh Jung (TEX), Nathan Lukes (TOR), and Travis Bazzana (CLE). Cold but due to bounce back: Willy Adames (SF), Ketel Marte (AZ), Starling Marte (KC), Victor Scott II (STL), and Jordan Walker (STL).

How it played out

8 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Paul Goldschmidt finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Sunday, May 31, 2026)?: Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Jacob Lopez. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Sunday, May 31, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Sunday, May 31, 2026: Paul Goldschmidt (100), Luis Arraez (99), Willi Castro (95), Jonah Cox (94), Rafael Devers (93). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Sunday, May 31, 2026?: Yes — Paul Goldschmidt got 1 hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .281 against lefties this year. Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .301 against righties this year. Willi Castro (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .327 against lefties this year. Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .236 against righties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .217 against righties this year.
Which parks favor hits today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Luis Arraez (SF) at 99.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: LHP Jordan Wicks has been getting tattooed by lefties — .301 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: JJ Wetherholt (STL), Iván Herrera (STL), and Victor Scott II (STL). RHP Tanner Gordon has been vulnerable to righties — .287 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (SF), Jonah Cox (SF), and Rafael Devers (SF). LHP Matthew Liberatore has been vulnerable to lefties — .287 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Nico Hoerner (CHC), and Alex Bregman (CHC). LHP Ranger Suarez has been vulnerable to lefties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Travis Bazzana (CLE), Chase DeLauter (CLE), and José Ramírez (CLE).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Paul Goldschmidt (NYY), Isiah Kiner-Falefa (BOS), Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Josh Jung (TEX), Nathan Lukes (TOR), and Travis Bazzana (CLE). Cold but due to bounce back: Willy Adames (SF), Ketel Marte (AZ), Starling Marte (KC), Victor Scott II (STL), and Jordan Walker (STL).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.