Who has the best hits matchup today (Thursday, August 6, 2026)?

Luis Arraez (PHI) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Miles Mikolas. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Thursday, August 6, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Thursday, August 6, 2026: Luis Arraez (100), Ceddanne Rafaela (100), Geraldo Perdomo (100), Drake Baldwin (96), Nick Sogard (92). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Thursday, August 6, 2026?

Yes — Luis Arraez got 2 hits.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Luis Arraez (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .297 against righties this year. Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .204 against righties this year. Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .250 against righties this year. Nick Sogard (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .220 against righties this year. Dylan Beavers (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .218 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Walker Buehler has been vulnerable to righties — .278 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Geraldo Perdomo (AZ), Corbin Carroll (AZ), and Ketel Marte (AZ). RHP Miles Mikolas has been vulnerable to righties — .272 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (PHI), Trea Turner (PHI), and Bryce Harper (PHI). RHP Janson Junk has been vulnerable to righties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Drake Baldwin (ATL), Michael Harris II (ATL), and Matt Olson (ATL). RHP Ryan Johnson has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Dylan Beavers (BAL), Pete Alonso (BAL), and Jackson Holliday (BAL).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a hit a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Thursday, August 6, 2026

Every hitter on the Thursday, August 6, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Thursday, August 6, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 4/5 (80%) on 1+ hit, against 67% on the season.

Top 5

4/580%

season 67%

Top 10

9/1090%

season 68%

Full slate

135/19868%

season 58%

Top call Luis Arraez came through. Geraldo Perdomo didn't.

Final · 4–1

LAAaway

BALhomeTop matchup87 Final · 5–6

ATHaway

CINhomeTop matchup59 Final · 13–6

NYMaway

CLEhomeTop matchup84 Final · 2–5

PITaway

MILhomeTop matchup81 Final · 2–3

TORaway

CHChomeTop matchup74 Final · 11–0

DETaway

SEAhomeTop matchup81 Final · 3–7

WSHaway

PHIhomeTop matchup100 Final · 11–12

CWSaway

BOShomeTop matchup100 Final · 3–11

MIAaway

ATLhomeTop matchup96 Final · 4–3

MINaway

KChomeTop matchup85 Final · 5–1

SDaway

AZhomeTop matchup100

Not starting53 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 251 shownScore

143 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Alejandro KirkC
TOR@CHC· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T1
Mauricio DubónLF
ATLvsMIA· 4-for-4
4HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #79
3
Chase Meidroth2B
CWS@BOS· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #8
T3
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KCvsMIN· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #15
T3
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsMIA· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T3
Dillon DinglerC
DET@SEA· 3-for-6
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T3
Luis Robert Jr.CF
NYM@CLE· 3-for-6
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #50
T3
Colt Keith3B
DET@SEA· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #61
T3
Carson BengeRF
NYM@CLE· 3-for-6
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #63
T3
Marcus Semien2B
NYM@CLE· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #66
T3
Gabriel MorenoC
AZvsSD· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #71
T3
Luis RengifoLF
SD@AZ· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #81
T3
Caleb Durbin3B
BOSvsCWS· 3-for-6
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #112
T3
Andrés GiménezSS
TOR@CHC· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #157
T3
Sam AntonacciLF
CWS@BOS· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H
16
Luis Arraez2B
PHIvsWSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #1
T16
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOSvsCWS· 2-for-7
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #2
T16
Trea TurnerSS
PHIvsWSH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #6
T16
Bryce Harper1B
PHIvsWSH· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #9
T16
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@CLE· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #11
T16
Wade MecklerLF
LAA@BAL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #12
T16
Jackson MerrillCF
SD@AZ· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #13
T16
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@SEA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #16
T16
Francisco LindorSS
NYM@CLE· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #18
T16
Nathaniel LoweDH
CLEvsNYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #20
T16
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAA@BAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #21
T16
Masataka YoshidaDH
BOSvsCWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T16
Matt Olson1B
ATLvsMIA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T16
Colson MontgomerySS
CWS@BOS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #44
T16
Andruw MonasterioSS
BOSvsCWS· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T16
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHIvsWSH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T16
Ernie Clement2B
TOR@CHC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #54
T16
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsTOR· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #55
T16
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #59
T16
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF
ATLvsMIA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #65
T16
Zach NetoSS
LAA@BAL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #70
T16
Tommy White3B
ATH@CIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #72
T16
Chase DeLauterRF
CLEvsNYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #73
T16
Nick Gonzales3B
PIT@MIL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #74
T16
Ty France1B
SD@AZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #77
T16
Brandon MarshLF
PHIvsWSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T16
Jose SiriCF
LAA@BAL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #94
T16
Anthony Seigler2B
BOSvsCWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #95
T16
Alex Bregman3B
CHCvsTOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #116
T16
JJ BledayLF
CINvsATH· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T16
Petey HalpinCF
CLEvsNYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #120
T16
Luis TorrensC
NYM@CLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #124
T16
Jacob YoungCF
WSH@PHI· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #132
T16
Javier BáezSS
DET@SEA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #134
T16
J.T. RealmutoC
PHIvsWSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #135
T16
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@ATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #141
T16
Bryson Stott2B
PHIvsWSH· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #146
T16
Keibert RuizC
WSH@PHI· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #171
T16
Xander BogaertsSS
SD@AZ· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #178
T16
Gary SánchezC
MILvsPIT· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #181
T16
Connor WongC
BOSvsCWS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #184
57
Drake BaldwinC
ATLvsMIA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #4
T57
Nick Sogard2B
BOSvsCWS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T57
Dylan BeaversRF
BALvsLAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #7
T57
Trevor LarnachLF
MIN@KC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #10
T57
Brandon Lowe2B
PIT@MIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #17
T57
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsLAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #19
T57
Jake MangumCF
PIT@MIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #22
T57
Dylan CrewsRF
WSH@PHI· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #23
T57
Brice Turang2B
MILvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #25
T57
Luke Keaschall2B
MIN@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T57
Randal GrichukDH
CWS@BOS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #31
T57
Gleyber Torres2B
DET@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T57
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T57
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TOR@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #39
T57
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOSvsCWS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T57
Carter JensenC
KCvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #42
T57
Otto LopezSS
MIA@ATL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T57
Jackson ChourioLF
MILvsPIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #45
T57
Jac CaglianoneRF
KCvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #46
T57
Corbin CarrollRF
AZvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #49
T57
Ketel Marte2B
AZvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #52
T57
Tyler StephensonC
CINvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #56
T57
Elly De La CruzSS
CINvsATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #58
T57
Henry BolteCF
ATH@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #60
T57
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEAvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #64
T57
Alec Bohm3B
PHIvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #68
T57
José Ramírez3B
CLEvsNYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #69
T57
Francisco AlvarezC
NYM@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #78
T57
Julio RodríguezCF
SEAvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #80
T57
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEAvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #85
T57
Endy RodríguezC
PIT@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #86
T57
Royce Lewis1B
MIN@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #87
T57
Agustín RamírezC
MIA@ATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T57
Dominic SmithDH
ATLvsMIA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #91
T57
Andrés Chaparro1B
WSH@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #96
T57
Harry FordC
WSH@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #98
T57
Eric Wagaman1B
NYM@CLE· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #100
T57
Riley GreeneLF
DET@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T57
Taylor WardLF
SEAvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #102
T57
Andrew Vaughn1B
MILvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #103
T57
Lars NootbaarLF
AZvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #104
T57
Josh BellDH
MIN@KC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #106
T57
Spencer Horwitz1B
PIT@MIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #107
T57
Jonah HeimC
ATH@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T57
Angel MartínezLF
CLEvsNYM· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #109
T57
Andrew PinckneyLF
WSH@PHI· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #110
T57
Garrett MitchellCF
MILvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #111
T57
Salvador PerezDH
KCvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #119
T57
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATH@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #121
T57
Yohel PozoC
BALvsLAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #122
T57
Justin CrawfordCF
PHIvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #123
T57
Angel Genao3B
CLEvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #131
T57
Cooper PrattSS
MILvsPIT· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #133
T57
Moisés BallesterosC
LAA@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #136
T57
Xavier Edwards2B
MIA@ATL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #137
T57
Brooks Lee3B
MIN@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #138
T57
Brayan RocchioSS
CLEvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #139
T57
Josh Rojas3B
KCvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #140
T57
Brenton DoyleCF
CWS@BOS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #142
T57
Luis Urías2B
TOR@CHC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #143
T57
Max Muncy3B
ATH@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #145
T57
Weston Wilson3B
SEAvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #153
T57
Max ClarkCF
DET@SEA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #154
T57
Miguel AmayaC
CHCvsTOR· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #155
T57
Eugenio SuárezDH
CINvsATH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #158
T57
Brian ServenC
ATH@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #161
T57
Max KeplerLF
AZvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #162
T57
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATH@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #163
T57
Spencer Torkelson1B
DET@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #164
T57
Noelvi MarteRF
CINvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #169
T57
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWS@BOS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #175
T57
Jonathan OrnelasSS
ATH@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #182
T57
Colt EmersonSS
SEAvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #185
T57
Jake Cronenworth2B
SD@AZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #186
T57
Leo Jiménez3B
MIA@ATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #188
T57
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #190
T57
Leo Rivas3B
SEAvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #193
T57
Freddy FerminC
SD@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #194
T57
Tim TawaLF
AZvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #195
T57
Alan RodenRF
MIN@KC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #196
T57
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWS@BOS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H
T57
Austin MartinRF
MIN@KC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T57
Tyler O'NeillRF
BALvsLAA· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T57
Griffin ConineRF
MIA@ATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T57
Jared Young1B
NYM@CLE· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T57
Tristan PetersCF
CWS@BOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T57
Lane ThomasCF
ATLvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Thursday, August 6, 2026

Luis Arraez (PHI) is the top hits matchup on the Thursday, August 6, 2026 board at 100, with Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) and Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Luis Arraez

Luis Arraez (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Miles Mikolas. The lefty is hitting .297 H/PA against righties this year — and .333 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 29% of his trips. And Miles Mikolas has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .323 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.3 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .250 in 16 career PA against Miles Mikolas. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (100) vs RHP Luis Castillo: an excellent bat at .281 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.222).
Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) (100) vs RHP Walker Buehler: a solid bat at .225 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.417), hot bat.
Drake Baldwin (ATL) (96) vs RHP Janson Junk: a strong bat at .256 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.280).
Nick Sogard (BOS) (92) vs RHP Luis Castillo: a solid bat at .229 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.529).
Trea Turner (PHI) (89) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: a strong bat at .262 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.214).
Dylan Beavers (BAL) (87) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a league-average bat at .224 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.320), due to bounce back.
Chase Meidroth (CWS) (86) vs LHP Ranger Suarez: a strong bat at .256 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.227).

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Walker Buehler has been vulnerable to righties — .278 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Geraldo Perdomo (AZ), Corbin Carroll (AZ), and Ketel Marte (AZ).
RHP Miles Mikolas has been vulnerable to righties — .272 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (PHI), Trea Turner (PHI), and Bryce Harper (PHI).
RHP Janson Junk has been vulnerable to righties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Drake Baldwin (ATL), Michael Harris II (ATL), and Matt Olson (ATL).
RHP Ryan Johnson has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Dylan Beavers (BAL), Pete Alonso (BAL), and Jackson Holliday (BAL).

Platoon edges to target

Luis Arraez (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .297 against righties this year.
Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .204 against righties this year.
Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .250 against righties this year.
Nick Sogard (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .220 against righties this year.
Dylan Beavers (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .218 against righties this year.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Geraldo Perdomo (AZ), Dillon Dingler (DET), Seiya Suzuki (CHC), Andruw Monasterio (BOS), Alec Bohm (PHI), and Julio Rodríguez (SEA). Cold but due to bounce back: Dylan Beavers (BAL), Bryce Harper (PHI), Trevor Larnach (MIN), Kevin McGonigle (DET), and Francisco Lindor (NYM).

How it played out

9 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Luis Arraez finished with 2 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Thursday, August 6, 2026)?: Luis Arraez (PHI) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Miles Mikolas. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Thursday, August 6, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Thursday, August 6, 2026: Luis Arraez (100), Ceddanne Rafaela (100), Geraldo Perdomo (100), Drake Baldwin (96), Nick Sogard (92). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Thursday, August 6, 2026?: Yes — Luis Arraez got 2 hits.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Luis Arraez (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .297 against righties this year. Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .204 against righties this year. Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .250 against righties this year. Nick Sogard (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .220 against righties this year. Dylan Beavers (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .218 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Walker Buehler has been vulnerable to righties — .278 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Geraldo Perdomo (AZ), Corbin Carroll (AZ), and Ketel Marte (AZ). RHP Miles Mikolas has been vulnerable to righties — .272 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (PHI), Trea Turner (PHI), and Bryce Harper (PHI). RHP Janson Junk has been vulnerable to righties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Drake Baldwin (ATL), Michael Harris II (ATL), and Matt Olson (ATL). RHP Ryan Johnson has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Dylan Beavers (BAL), Pete Alonso (BAL), and Jackson Holliday (BAL).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Geraldo Perdomo (AZ), Dillon Dingler (DET), Seiya Suzuki (CHC), Andruw Monasterio (BOS), Alec Bohm (PHI), and Julio Rodríguez (SEA). Cold but due to bounce back: Dylan Beavers (BAL), Bryce Harper (PHI), Trevor Larnach (MIN), Kevin McGonigle (DET), and Francisco Lindor (NYM).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a hit a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays