Who has the best hits matchup today (Wednesday, August 5, 2026)?

Kevin McGonigle (DET) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Bryan Woo. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Wednesday, August 5, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Wednesday, August 5, 2026: Kevin McGonigle (100), Chandler Simpson (100), Ceddanne Rafaela (100), Dillon Dingler (99), Jeremy Peña (98). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Wednesday, August 5, 2026?

No — Kevin McGonigle didn't record a hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .247 against righties this year. Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .293 against righties this year. Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .290 against righties this year. Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .298 against lefties this year. Luis García Jr. (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .285 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

LHP Mitch Bratt has been vulnerable to lefties — .277 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Merrill (SD), Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), and Ty France (SD). RHP Dean Kremer has been vulnerable to righties — .271 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), Carter Jensen (KC), and Salvador Perez (KC).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a hit a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Wednesday, August 5, 2026

Every hitter on the Wednesday, August 5, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Wednesday, August 5, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 2/5 (40%) on 1+ hit, against 66% on the season.

Top 5

2/540%

season 66%

Top 10

5/1050%

season 67%

Full slate

141/27052%

season 58%

Top call Chandler Simpson came through. Kevin McGonigle didn't.

Final · 5–4

TORaway

HOUhomeTop matchup98 Final · 6–7

LADaway

CHChomeTop matchup84 Final · 0–6

SFaway

TEXhomeTop matchup76 Final · 4–0

TBaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–5

LAAaway

BALhomeTop matchup86 Final · 6–5

NYMaway

CLEhomeTop matchup78 Final · 2–3

ATHaway

CINhomeTop matchup92 Final · 10–4

WSHaway

PHIhomeTop matchup89 Final · 3–1

STLaway

NYYhomeTop matchup93 Final · 0–4

CWSaway

BOShomeTop matchup100 Final · 1–4

MIAaway

ATLhomeTop matchup75 Final · 1–2

MINaway

KChomeTop matchup92 Final · 2–4

PITaway

MILhomeTop matchup78 Final · 4–10

SDaway

AZhomeTop matchup95 Final · 2–4

DETaway

SEAhomeTop matchup100

Not starting55 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 325 shownScore

146 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Angel Genao3B
CLEvsNYM· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #209
T1
Mookie BettsSS
LAD@CHC· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #234
3
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LAD@CHC· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #17
T3
CJ AbramsSS
WSH@PHI· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #19
T3
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsLAD· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #70
T3
Carson KellyC
CHCvsLAD· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #82
T3
Nico Hoerner2B
CHCvsLAD· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #146
T3
Tim TawaLF
AZvsSD· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #202
T3
Ryan WaldschmidtCF
AZvsSD· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #210
T3
LaMonte Wade Jr.LF
HOUvsTOR· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #261
11
Dillon DinglerC
DET@SEA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #4
T11
Brandon NimmoRF
TEXvsSF· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #29
T11
Drake BaldwinC
ATLvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T11
Victor Mesa Jr.RF
TB@COL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T11
Nathaniel LoweDH
CLEvsNYM· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T11
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEAvsDET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #57
T11
Kyle Karros3B
COLvsTB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #64
T11
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T11
Jose Altuve2B
HOUvsTOR· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #105
T11
Ildemaro Vargas1B
AZvsSD· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #110
T11
Miguel Vargas3B
CWS@BOS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #114
T11
Corbin CarrollRF
AZvsSD· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #123
T11
Rafael Devers1B
SF@TEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #138
T11
Coby Mayo3B
BALvsLAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #140
T11
Julio RodríguezCF
SEAvsDET· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #143
T11
Michael Massey2B
KCvsMIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #147
T11
Mauricio DubónLF
ATLvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #158
T11
Blaze Jordan3B
STL@NYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #162
T11
Jared Young1B
NYM@CLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #163
T11
Nathan ChurchCF
STL@NYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #166
T11
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOSvsCWS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #177
T11
Drew CavanaughC
SF@TEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #188
T11
Christian YelichDH
MILvsPIT· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #190
T11
Christian Walker1B
HOUvsTOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #197
T11
Jarren DuranLF
BOSvsCWS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #207
T11
Michael Busch1B
CHCvsLAD· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #208
T11
Miguel Rojas2B
LAD@CHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #218
T11
Nicky Lopez2B
TEXvsSF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #222
T11
Tyler Locklear1B
AZvsSD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #225
T11
Jacob YoungCF
WSH@PHI· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #230
T11
Austin Riley3B
ATLvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #235
T11
Patrick BaileyC
CLEvsNYM· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #250
T11
Jimmy CrooksC
STL@NYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #259
T11
Jorge PolancoDH
NYM@CLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #269
45
Chandler SimpsonLF
TB@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #2
T45
Gleyber Torres2B
DET@SEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #6
T45
Alec Burleson1B
STL@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #8
T45
Elly De La CruzSS
CINvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #10
T45
Junior Caminero3B
TB@COL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #11
T45
Jonathan Aranda1B
TB@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #14
T45
Sam AntonacciLF
CWS@BOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #18
T45
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsNYM· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #23
T45
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #26
T45
Freddie Freeman1B
LAD@CHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #27
T45
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #28
T45
Jake McCarthyCF
COLvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #31
T45
Luis Arraez2B
PHIvsWSH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T45
Mickey MoniakLF
COLvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T45
Xavier Edwards2B
MIA@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T45
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEXvsSF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #41
T45
Bryce EldridgeDH
SF@TEX· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T45
Abimelec Ortiz1B
WSH@PHI· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T45
Dane MyersCF
CINvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #47
T45
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SF@TEX· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T45
Andy PagesCF
LAD@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #49
T45
Ryan JeffersC
MIN@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #50
T45
Dylan CrewsRF
WSH@PHI· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #54
T45
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #61
T45
Jake Burger1B
TEXvsSF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #62
T45
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZvsSD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #65
T45
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@CLE· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #67
T45
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF
ATLvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #68
T45
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATH@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #72
T45
Iván HerreraDH
STL@NYY· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #75
T45
Lars NootbaarLF
AZvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #77
T45
Gunnar HendersonSS
BALvsLAA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #78
T45
William ContrerasC
MILvsPIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #80
T45
Jac CaglianoneRF
KCvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #84
T45
Justin Foscue2B
TEXvsSF· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #85
T45
Tommy White3B
ATH@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T45
Alec Bohm3B
PHIvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T45
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATH@CIN· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #92
T45
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWS@BOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #93
T45
Alex Bregman3B
CHCvsLAD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #95
T45
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHCvsLAD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #96
T45
Ty France1B
SD@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #97
T45
Nick Gonzales3B
PIT@MIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T45
Willson Contreras1B
BOSvsCWS· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #100
T45
Nathan LukesRF
TOR@HOU· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #102
T45
JJ Wetherholt2B
STL@NYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #103
T45
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAA@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #106
T45
A.J. EwingCF
NYM@CLE· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T45
Carson BengeRF
NYM@CLE· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T45
Keibert RuizC
WSH@PHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #112
T45
Elias DíazC
TEXvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #115
T45
Travis d'ArnaudC
LAA@BAL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #116
T45
Noelvi MarteRF
CINvsATH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #119
T45
Christian Encarnacion-Strand3B
BALvsLAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #121
T45
Tyler O'NeillRF
BALvsLAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #125
T45
Jonah HeimC
ATH@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #127
T45
Heliot RamosLF
NYYvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #128
T45
Andruw MonasterioSS
BOSvsCWS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #129
T45
Kyle TuckerRF
LAD@CHC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #131
T45
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TOR@HOU· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #132
T45
Brandon MarshLF
PHIvsWSH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #141
T45
J.T. RealmutoC
PHIvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #145
T45
Travis Bazzana2B
CLEvsNYM· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #148
T45
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PIT@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #149
T45
Jesús SánchezRF
TOR@HOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #151
T45
Royce Lewis1B
MIN@KC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #159
T45
Jose TrevinoC
CINvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #161
T45
Max ClarkCF
DET@SEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #164
T45
Jose SiriCF
LAA@BAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #165
T45
Daulton VarshoCF
HOUvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #167
T45
Nick Loftin3B
KCvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #169
T45
Jordan BeckLF
COLvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #174
T45
Tommy Edman2B
LAD@CHC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #175
T45
George Lombard Jr.SS
NYYvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #183
T45
Brendan Donovan3B
SEAvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #189
T45
Ezequiel TovarSS
COLvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #195
T45
Ernie Clement2B
TOR@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #205
T45
Andrew Vaughn1B
MILvsPIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #211
T45
Caleb Durbin3B
BOSvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #212
T45
Isaac CollinsLF
KCvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #213
T45
Matt McLain2B
CINvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #215
T45
Max Muncy3B
LAD@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #216
T45
Brett Baty3B
NYM@CLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #217
T45
Endy RodríguezC
PIT@MIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #220
T45
Bryson Stott2B
PHIvsWSH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #221
T45
Osleivis BasabeSS
SF@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #224
T45
Tyrone TaylorLF
CHCvsLAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #233
T45
Jakob MarseeCF
MIA@ATL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #236
T45
Dansby SwansonSS
CHCvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #238
T45
Myles StrawRF
TOR@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #239
T45
Austin WellsC
NYYvsSTL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #243
T45
Nick AllenSS
HOUvsTOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #244
T45
Sean MurphyC
ATLvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #245
T45
Eddys LeonardSS
SF@TEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #248
T45
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@ATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #254
T45
Taylor WardLF
SEAvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #264
T45
Colt EmersonSS
SEAvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #266
T45
Andrés Chaparro1B
WSH@PHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H
T45
Brady House3B
WSH@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T45
Joc PedersonDH
TEXvsSF· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T45
Angel MartínezLF
CLEvsNYM· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T45
Wade MecklerLF
LAA@BAL· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Wednesday, August 5, 2026

Kevin McGonigle (DET) is the top hits matchup on the Wednesday, August 5, 2026 board at 100, with Chandler Simpson (TB) and Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Kevin McGonigle

Kevin McGonigle (DET) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Bryan Woo. The lefty is hitting .247 H/PA against righties this year — and .333 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 26% of his trips. And Bryan Woo has been tough on righties lately — .167 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Bryan Woo too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Chandler Simpson (TB) (100) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: an excellent bat at .296 into an arm tough on the same side (.182), hitter's park, hot bat.
Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (100) vs RHP Sean Burke: an excellent bat at .289 into an arm tough on the same side (.143), hot bat.
Dillon Dingler (DET) (99) vs RHP Bryan Woo: a strong bat at .251 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.529), hot bat.
Jeremy Peña (HOU) (98) vs RHP Jameson Taillon: an elite bat at .311 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333).
Gleyber Torres (DET) (96) vs RHP Bryan Woo: a strong bat at .251 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.529).
Jackson Merrill (SD) (95) vs LHP Mitch Bratt: an excellent bat at .279 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.375).
Alec Burleson (STL) (93) vs RHP Will Warren: an excellent bat at .299 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.222), hot bat.

Pitchers getting tattooed today

LHP Mitch Bratt has been vulnerable to lefties — .277 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Merrill (SD), Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), and Ty France (SD).
RHP Dean Kremer has been vulnerable to righties — .271 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), Carter Jensen (KC), and Salvador Perez (KC).

Platoon edges to target

Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .247 against righties this year.
Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .293 against righties this year.
Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .290 against righties this year.
Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .298 against lefties this year.
Luis García Jr. (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .285 against righties this year.

Best parks to hit in today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Chandler Simpson (TB) at 100.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Chandler Simpson (TB), Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Dillon Dingler (DET), Alec Burleson (STL), Jacob Wilson (ATH), and Shohei Ohtani (LAD). Cold but due to bounce back: Kevin McGonigle (DET), Sam Antonacci (CWS), Drake Baldwin (ATL), Victor Mesa Jr. (TB), and Wyatt Langford (TEX).

How it played out

5 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Kevin McGonigle finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Wednesday, August 5, 2026)?: Kevin McGonigle (DET) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Bryan Woo. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Wednesday, August 5, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Wednesday, August 5, 2026: Kevin McGonigle (100), Chandler Simpson (100), Ceddanne Rafaela (100), Dillon Dingler (99), Jeremy Peña (98). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Wednesday, August 5, 2026?: No — Kevin McGonigle didn't record a hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .247 against righties this year. Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .293 against righties this year. Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .290 against righties this year. Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .298 against lefties this year. Luis García Jr. (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .285 against righties this year.
Which parks favor hits today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Chandler Simpson (TB) at 100.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: LHP Mitch Bratt has been vulnerable to lefties — .277 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Merrill (SD), Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), and Ty France (SD). RHP Dean Kremer has been vulnerable to righties — .271 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), Carter Jensen (KC), and Salvador Perez (KC).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Chandler Simpson (TB), Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Dillon Dingler (DET), Alec Burleson (STL), Jacob Wilson (ATH), and Shohei Ohtani (LAD). Cold but due to bounce back: Kevin McGonigle (DET), Sam Antonacci (CWS), Drake Baldwin (ATL), Victor Mesa Jr. (TB), and Wyatt Langford (TEX).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a hit a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays