Who has the best hits matchup today (Friday, August 7, 2026)?

Alec Burleson (STL) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Feltner. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Friday, August 7, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Friday, August 7, 2026: Alec Burleson (100), Jung Hoo Lee (100), Freddie Freeman (100), Kevin McGonigle (96), Dillon Dingler (94). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Friday, August 7, 2026?

No — Alec Burleson didn't record a hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .291 against righties this year. Jung Hoo Lee (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .292 against righties this year. Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .289 against righties this year. Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .248 against righties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .238 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Shane Baz has been vulnerable to righties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Joc Pederson (TEX), Corey Seager (TEX), and Ezequiel Duran (TEX). RHP George Klassen has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Stowers (MIA), Otto Lopez (MIA), and Xavier Edwards (MIA). RHP Kyle Leahy has been giving up plenty to righties — .257 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), Mickey Moniak (COL), and Cole Carrigg (COL).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Friday, August 7, 2026

Every hitter on the Friday, August 7, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Friday, August 7, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 2/5 (40%) on 1+ hit, against 67% on the season.

Top 5

2/540%

season 67%

Top 10

5/1050%

season 68%

Full slate

162/27060%

season 58%

Top call Jung Hoo Lee came through. Alec Burleson didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 6–4

NYMaway

PIThomeTop matchup81 Final · 5–4

TORaway

PHIhomeTop matchup73 Final · 3–5

CINaway

WSHhomeTop matchup72 Final · 2–3

ATLaway

NYYhomeTop matchup68 Final · 4–3

LAAaway

MIAhomeTop matchup64 Final · 1–13

ATHaway

BOShomeTop matchup78 Final · 8–2

CLEaway

CWShomeTop matchup75 Final · 8–6

MINaway

MILhomeTop matchup70 Final · 6–4

CHCaway

KChomeTop matchup87 Final · 2–3

COLaway

STLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 1–2

BALaway

TEXhomeTop matchup72 Final · 3–4

LADaway

AZhomeTop matchup100 Final · 6–3

HOUaway

SDhomeTop matchup69 Final · 2–1

TBaway

SEAhomeTop matchup74 Final · 2–5

DETaway

SFhomeTop matchup100

Not starting68 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 338 shownScore

167 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Kyle Stowers1B
MIAvsLAA· 4-for-4
4HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #50
T1
Josh BellDH
MIN@MIL· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #128
3
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@SF· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #4
T3
Jake McCarthyLF
COL@STL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #11
T3
Steven KwanLF
CLE@CWS· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T3
TJ Rumfield1B
COL@STL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #79
T3
Isaac Paredes3B
HOU@SD· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #120
T3
A.J. EwingCF
NYM@PIT· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #126
T3
Spencer Torkelson1B
DET@SF· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #218
T3
Josh Smith2B
TOR@PHI· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #250
T3
Cam SmithRF
HOU@SD· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #252
12
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOSvsATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #13
T12
Jonathan Aranda1B
TB@SEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #27
T12
Chase DeLauterRF
CLE@CWS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #31
T12
Brice Turang2B
MILvsMIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T12
Osleivis Basabe2B
SFvsDET· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #40
T12
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHC@KC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #41
T12
Jac CaglianoneRF
KCvsCHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #51
T12
Daylen LileLF
WSHvsCIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #54
T12
Royce Lewis1B
MIN@MIL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
T12
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SDvsHOU· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #66
T12
Bryce Harper1B
PHIvsTOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #77
T12
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PITvsNYM· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #90
T12
Andruw MonasterioSS
BOSvsATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #95
T12
Nathan LukesRF
TOR@PHI· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #96
T12
Masataka YoshidaDH
BOSvsATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #100
T12
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOSvsATH· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #104
T12
Carson BengeRF
NYM@PIT· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #111
T12
Julio RodríguezCF
SEAvsTB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #112
T12
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF
ATL@NYY· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #116
T12
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZvsLAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #119
T12
Nick Gonzales3B
PITvsNYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #123
T12
Willi Castro2B
COL@STL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #125
T12
Angel MartínezLF
CLE@CWS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #131
T12
Michael Busch1B
CHC@KC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #154
T12
Ronny Simon2B
PITvsNYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #158
T12
Drake BaldwinC
ATL@NYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #165
T12
Zach McKinstry2B
DET@SF· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #172
T12
Anthony Seigler2B
BOSvsATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #173
T12
Pedro Ramírez2B
CHC@KC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #174
T12
Tommy Edman2B
LAD@AZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #183
T12
Jared TrioloSS
PITvsNYM· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #184
T12
Jakob MarseeCF
MIAvsLAA· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #203
T12
Luis LaraRF
MILvsMIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #205
T12
Leo Jiménez3B
MIAvsLAA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #211
T12
Leody TaverasCF
BAL@TEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #213
T12
Jake MeyersCF
HOU@SD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #226
T12
Luisangel AcuñaSS
CWSvsCLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #229
T12
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWSvsCLE· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #239
T12
Victor Mesa Jr.RF
TB@SEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #243
T12
Matt McLain2B
CIN@WSH· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #251
T12
David Hamilton3B
MILvsMIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #254
T12
Ryan KreidlerSS
MIN@MIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #255
T12
Ryan McMahon3B
NYYvsATL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #260
T12
Jake RogersC
BOSvsATH· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #262
T12
Agustín RamírezC
MIAvsLAA· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
57
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SFvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #2
T57
Gleyber Torres2B
DET@SF· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #6
T57
Jordan WalkerRF
STLvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #7
T57
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KCvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #9
T57
Chase Meidroth2B
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #14
T57
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHC@KC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #16
T57
Mickey MoniakLF
COL@STL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #17
T57
CJ AbramsSS
WSHvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #19
T57
Joc PedersonDH
TEXvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #20
T57
Ryan JeffersC
MIN@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T57
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOU@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #28
T57
Elly De La CruzSS
CIN@WSH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T57
Alex Bregman3B
CHC@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #44
T57
Randal GrichukDH
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T57
Cole Young2B
SEAvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #46
T57
Nick Sogard2B
BOSvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #47
T57
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATH@BOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #49
T57
Iván HerreraDH
STLvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T57
Jackson ChourioLF
MILvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #56
T57
Riley GreeneLF
DET@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #57
T57
George SpringerDH
TOR@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #58
T57
Rafael Devers1B
SFvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #59
T57
Munetaka Murakami1B
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #60
T57
Andy PagesCF
LAD@AZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #61
T57
Liam HicksC
TB@SEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #67
T57
Austin MartinRF
MIN@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #68
T57
Héctor RodríguezRF
CIN@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #72
T57
José Ramírez3B
CLE@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #73
T57
Luis García Jr.1B
NYYvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #74
T57
Gabriel MorenoC
AZvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T57
Carter JensenC
KCvsCHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #84
T57
Brandon NimmoRF
TEXvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #85
T57
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@PIT· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #86
T57
Salvador PerezDH
KCvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #91
T57
Heliot RamosLF
NYYvsATL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #97
T57
Jimmy CrooksC
STLvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #98
T57
Brandon Lowe2B
PITvsNYM· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T57
Manny Machado3B
SDvsHOU· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #102
T57
Jesús SánchezRF
TOR@PHI· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #103
T57
Jose Altuve2B
HOU@SD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #105
T57
Francisco LindorSS
NYM@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #113
T57
Jake Cronenworth2B
SDvsHOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #115
T57
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAA@MIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #118
T57
Mookie BettsSS
LAD@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #121
T57
Christian Walker1B
HOU@SD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #124
T57
Brady House3B
WSHvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #127
T57
Masyn WinnSS
STLvsCOL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #129
T57
Dylan BeaversRF
BAL@TEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #130
T57
Spencer Horwitz1B
PITvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #132
T57
Carson KellyC
CHC@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #133
T57
Kody Clemens1B
MIN@MIL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #136
T57
Max ClarkCF
DET@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #138
T57
Matt Olson1B
ATL@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #139
T57
Jackson MerrillCF
SDvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #140
T57
Caleb Durbin3B
BOSvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #141
T57
Mike TroutCF
LAA@MIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #143
T57
Kyle TuckerRF
LAD@AZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #146
T57
Jonny DeLucaRF
TB@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #149
T57
Ben RiceDH
NYYvsATL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #153
T57
Isaac CollinsLF
KCvsCHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #155
T57
Willy AdamesSS
SFvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #157
T57
Luke Keaschall2B
MIN@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #159
T57
Luis CampusanoC
SDvsHOU· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #160
T57
Noelvi MarteRF
CIN@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #161
T57
Jared Young1B
NYM@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #164
T57
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHIvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #166
T57
Eugenio SuárezDH
CIN@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #167
T57
Andrés GiménezSS
TOR@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #176
T57
Kaelen CulpepperSS
MIN@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #177
T57
Tyler TolbertSS
KCvsCHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #179
T57
Jarren DuranLF
BOSvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #180
T57
Mauricio DubónLF
ATL@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #181
T57
George Lombard Jr.SS
NYYvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #186
T57
Rhys Hoskins1B
CLE@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #194
T57
Ryan WaldschmidtCF
AZvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #196
T57
Moisés BallesterosDH
LAA@MIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #197
T57
Hunter FeducciaC
LAD@AZ· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #198
T57
J.T. RealmutoC
PHIvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T57
Justin CrawfordCF
PHIvsTOR· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #202
T57
Rafael Flores Jr.C
PITvsNYM· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #206
T57
Oswald Peraza2B
LAA@MIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #207
T57
Lars NootbaarLF
AZvsLAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #208
T57
Austin Riley3B
ATL@NYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #210
T57
Edgar QueroC
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #216
T57
Marcus Semien2B
NYM@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #219
T57
Christian YelichDH
MILvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #220
T57
Garrett MitchellCF
MILvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #222
T57
José TenaDH
WSHvsCIN· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #223
T57
Brett BatemanCF
TOR@PHI· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #227
T57
Austin HedgesC
CLE@CWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #228
T57
Harry FordC
WSHvsCIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #230
T57
Colton CowserCF
BAL@TEX· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #231
T57
Max Muncy3B
ATH@BOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #232
T57
Ke'Bryan Hayes3B
CIN@WSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #234
T57
Sung-Mun Song2B
SDvsHOU· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #235
T57
Nolan Arenado3B
AZvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #236
T57
Jacob YoungCF
WSHvsCIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #237
T57
Esteury RuizRF
MIAvsLAA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #240
T57
Josh LoweLF
LAA@MIA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #241
T57
Brett Baty3B
NYM@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #242
T57
Coby Mayo3B
BAL@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #246
T57
Tim Tawa1B
AZvsLAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #247
T57
Elias DíazC
TEXvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #248
T57
Tyler HeinemanC
LAA@MIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #256
T57
Austin WellsC
NYYvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #264
T57
Carlos NarváezC
BAL@TEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #265
T57
Colt EmersonSS
SEAvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #266
T57
Jordan BeckLF
COL@STL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T57
Jacob GonzalezSS
PITvsNYM· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T57
Miguel Rojas2B
LAD@AZ· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T57
Javier Sanoja3B
MIAvsLAA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Friday, August 7, 2026

Alec Burleson (STL) is the top hits matchup on the Friday, August 7, 2026 board at 100, with Jung Hoo Lee (SF) and Freddie Freeman (LAD) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Alec Burleson

Alec Burleson (STL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Feltner. The lefty is hitting .291 H/PA against righties this year — and .375 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 29% of his trips. And Ryan Feltner has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .300 hits per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .167 in 6 career PA against Ryan Feltner, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Jung Hoo Lee (SF) (100) vs RHP Keider Montero: an excellent bat at .277 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.296), hot bat.
Freddie Freeman (LAD) (100) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: an excellent bat at .299 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.297), hot bat.
Kevin McGonigle (DET) (96) vs RHP JT Brubaker: a strong bat at .264 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.273).
Dillon Dingler (DET) (94) vs RHP JT Brubaker: a strong bat at .270 into an arm tough on the same side (.200), hot bat.
Gleyber Torres (DET) (91) vs RHP JT Brubaker: a strong bat at .254 into an arm tough on the same side (.200), hot bat.
Jordan Walker (STL) (90) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at .247 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.421), hot bat.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (88) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: a strong bat at .252 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.297), hot bat.

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Shane Baz has been vulnerable to righties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Joc Pederson (TEX), Corey Seager (TEX), and Ezequiel Duran (TEX).
RHP George Klassen has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Stowers (MIA), Otto Lopez (MIA), and Xavier Edwards (MIA).
RHP Kyle Leahy has been giving up plenty to righties — .257 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), Mickey Moniak (COL), and Cole Carrigg (COL).

Platoon edges to target

Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .291 against righties this year.
Jung Hoo Lee (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .292 against righties this year.
Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .289 against righties this year.
Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .248 against righties this year.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .238 against righties this year.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Alec Burleson (STL), Jung Hoo Lee (SF), Freddie Freeman (LAD), Dillon Dingler (DET), Gleyber Torres (DET), and Jordan Walker (STL). Cold but due to bounce back: Jackson Holliday (BAL), Jo Adell (CLE), Ozzie Albies (ATL), Cole Young (SEA), and Daylen Lile (WSH).

How it played out

5 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Alec Burleson finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Friday, August 7, 2026)?: Alec Burleson (STL) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Feltner. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Friday, August 7, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Friday, August 7, 2026: Alec Burleson (100), Jung Hoo Lee (100), Freddie Freeman (100), Kevin McGonigle (96), Dillon Dingler (94). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Friday, August 7, 2026?: No — Alec Burleson didn't record a hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .291 against righties this year. Jung Hoo Lee (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .292 against righties this year. Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .289 against righties this year. Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .248 against righties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .238 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Shane Baz has been vulnerable to righties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Joc Pederson (TEX), Corey Seager (TEX), and Ezequiel Duran (TEX). RHP George Klassen has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Stowers (MIA), Otto Lopez (MIA), and Xavier Edwards (MIA). RHP Kyle Leahy has been giving up plenty to righties — .257 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), Mickey Moniak (COL), and Cole Carrigg (COL).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Alec Burleson (STL), Jung Hoo Lee (SF), Freddie Freeman (LAD), Dillon Dingler (DET), Gleyber Torres (DET), and Jordan Walker (STL). Cold but due to bounce back: Jackson Holliday (BAL), Jo Adell (CLE), Ozzie Albies (ATL), Cole Young (SEA), and Daylen Lile (WSH).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.