Who has the best hits matchup today (Monday, August 10, 2026)?

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Noah Cameron. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Monday, August 10, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Monday, August 10, 2026: Shohei Ohtani (100), Jake McCarthy (100), Jeremy Peña (90), Yandy Díaz (89), Yordan Alvarez (89). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Monday, August 10, 2026?

Yes — Shohei Ohtani got 2 hits.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .273 against righties this year. Yandy Díaz (TB) — righty bat vs LHP, .261 against lefties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .278 against righties this year. Jung Hoo Lee (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .287 against righties this year. Jeff McNeil (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .242 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Freddy Peralta has been vulnerable to righties — .270 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jeff McNeil (ATH), Tyler Soderstrom (ATH), and Jacob Wilson (ATH). RHP Jameson Taillon has been giving up plenty to righties — .257 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Nick Sogard (BOS), and Wilyer Abreu (BOS).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Monday, August 10, 2026

Every hitter on the Monday, August 10, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Monday, August 10, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 5/5 (100%) on 1+ hit, against 67% on the season.

Top 5

5/5100%

season 67%

Top 10

10/10100%

season 68%

Full slate

109/18061%

season 58%

Top call Shohei Ohtani came through. Fernando Tatis Jr. didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 1–2

BOSaway

TORhomeTop matchup87 Final · 8–5

NYMaway

ATLhomeTop matchup81 Final · 5–9

BALaway

MINhomeTop matchup82 Final · 6–5

PHIaway

STLhomeTop matchup84 Final · 4–1

TEXaway

LAAhomeTop matchup79 Final · 0–9

COLaway

AZhomeTop matchup100 Final · 10–6

TBaway

ATHhomeTop matchup89 Final · 2–3

MILaway

SDhomeTop matchup75 Final · 6–3

HOUaway

SFhomeTop matchup90 Final · 5–6

KCaway

LADhomeTop matchup100

Not starting43 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 223 shownScore

110 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Austin MartinRF
MINvsBAL· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #24
2
Yandy DíazDH
TB@ATH· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #4
T2
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsKC· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #15
T2
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@SD· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #25
T2
Jonny DeLucaRF
TB@ATH· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #52
T2
Francisco LindorSS
NYM@ATL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #84
T2
Cam SmithRF
HOU@SF· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #144
8
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsKC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #1
T8
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOU@SF· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T8
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SFvsHOU· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #6
T8
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@TOR· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #7
T8
Jeff McNeil2B
ATHvsTB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #8
T8
Iván HerreraDH
STLvsPHI· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #9
T8
Ryan JeffersC
MINvsBAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #10
T8
Drake BaldwinC
ATLvsNYM· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #11
T8
Alec Burleson1B
STLvsPHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #12
T8
Brandon NimmoRF
TEX@LAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #14
T8
Royce Lewis1B
MINvsBAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #16
T8
Jonathan Aranda1B
TB@ATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T8
Josh BellDH
MINvsBAL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #28
T8
Gabriel MorenoC
AZvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T8
Bryson Stott2B
PHI@STL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T8
Jackson Holliday2B
BAL@MIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T8
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsNYM· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T8
Jac CaglianoneRF
KC@LAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T8
Ty France1B
SDvsMIL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #62
T8
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATHvsTB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #64
T8
Ryan WaldschmidtCF
AZvsCOL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #74
T8
Nick Loftin3B
KC@LAD· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #77
T8
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHI@STL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #79
T8
Chandler SimpsonLF
TB@ATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #91
T8
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAAvsTEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #97
T8
Ketel Marte2B
AZvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #100
T8
Isaac Paredes3B
HOU@SF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #105
T8
Nolan Arenado3B
AZvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #110
T8
Troy JohnstonRF
COL@AZ· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #114
T8
Edmundo SosaLF
PHI@STL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #115
T8
Henry BolteCF
ATHvsTB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #116
T8
Zack Gelof3B
ATHvsTB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #119
T8
Coby Mayo3B
BAL@MIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #126
T8
Elias DíazC
TEX@LAA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #127
T8
Jared Young1B
NYM@ATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #129
T8
Brooks Lee3B
MINvsBAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #130
T8
Francisco AlvarezC
NYM@ATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #169
45
Jake McCarthyLF
COL@AZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #2
T45
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOU@SF· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #3
T45
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATHvsTB· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #13
T45
Jordan WalkerRF
STLvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #17
T45
Pete Alonso1B
BAL@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #18
T45
Osleivis Basabe2B
SFvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #19
T45
Mike TroutCF
LAAvsTEX· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T45
TJ Rumfield1B
COL@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T45
Matt Olson1B
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T45
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T45
Nick Sogard2B
BOS@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T45
Jacob WilsonSS
ATHvsTB· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #41
T45
Junior Caminero3B
TB@ATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T45
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@ATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #46
T45
Luke Keaschall2B
MINvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #50
T45
Nathan ChurchCF
STLvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #51
T45
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TORvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #53
T45
Brett BatemanCF
TORvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #55
T45
George SpringerDH
TORvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #65
T45
Jake Burger1B
TEX@LAA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #66
T45
Corey SeagerSS
TEX@LAA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #68
T45
Brandon MarshLF
PHI@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #69
T45
A.J. EwingCF
NYM@ATL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #70
T45
Corbin CarrollRF
AZvsCOL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #75
T45
Justin CrawfordCF
PHI@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #78
T45
Michael Massey2B
KC@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #83
T45
Charles McAdoo2B
TORvsBOS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #85
T45
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEX@LAA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #86
T45
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T45
Andrés GiménezSS
TORvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T45
Masyn WinnSS
STLvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #92
T45
Mauricio DubónLF
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #93
T45
Willi Castro2B
COL@AZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #98
T45
Miguel Rojas2B
LADvsKC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T45
Wade MecklerLF
LAAvsTEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #103
T45
Justin Foscue2B
TEX@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T45
Jackson MerrillCF
SDvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #117
T45
Drew GilbertCF
SFvsHOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #120
T45
Freddy FerminC
SDvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #121
T45
Jake Cronenworth2B
SDvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #122
T45
Jarren DuranLF
BOS@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #123
T45
Tommy Edman2B
LADvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #124
T45
Leody TaverasCF
BAL@MIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #125
T45
Oswald Peraza2B
LAAvsTEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #131
T45
Bryce EldridgeDH
SFvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #132
T45
José FermínLF
STLvsPHI· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #134
T45
Anthony Seigler2B
BOS@TOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #135
T45
Josh Smith2B
TORvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #139
T45
Brandon ValenzuelaC
TORvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #143
T45
Marcus Semien2B
NYM@ATL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #145
T45
Max Muncy3B
LADvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #146
T45
Christian YelichDH
MIL@SD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #152
T45
Colton CowserCF
BAL@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #153
T45
Austin Riley3B
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #154
T45
Taylor WallsSS
TB@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #155
T45
Luis LaraRF
MIL@SD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #156
T45
Mookie BettsSS
LADvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #159
T45
Ryan KreidlerSS
MINvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #160
T45
Hunter FeducciaC
LADvsKC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #163
T45
Connor WongC
BOS@TOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #165
T45
Brett Baty3B
NYM@ATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #170
T45
Sean MurphyC
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #171
T45
Kyle IsbelCF
KC@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #176
T45
Christian Koss3B
SFvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #178
T45
Jorge PolancoDH
NYM@ATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #180
T45
Josh LoweLF
LAAvsTEX· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Monday, August 10, 2026

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) is the top hits matchup on the Monday, August 10, 2026 board at 100, with Jake McCarthy (COL) and Jeremy Peña (HOU) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Noah Cameron. The lefty is hitting .265 H/PA against lefties this year — and .375 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 27% of his trips. And Noah Cameron has been tough on lefties lately — .111 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Noah Cameron too — .667 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Jake McCarthy (COL) (100) vs RHP Michael Soroka: an excellent bat at .279 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
Jeremy Peña (HOU) (90) vs RHP Blade Tidwell: a strong bat at .270 into an arm tough on the same side (.111), due to bounce back.
Yandy Díaz (TB) (89) vs LHP Jacob Lopez: a strong bat at .257 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.289).
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (89) vs RHP Blade Tidwell: a strong bat at .260 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.385), due to bounce back.
Jung Hoo Lee (SF) (88) vs RHP Hayden Wesneski: an excellent bat at .274 into an arm tough on the same side (.176), due to bounce back.
Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (87) vs RHP Jameson Taillon: an excellent bat at .276 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.353).
Jeff McNeil (ATH) (85) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: a solid bat at .249 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.417).

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Freddy Peralta has been vulnerable to righties — .270 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jeff McNeil (ATH), Tyler Soderstrom (ATH), and Jacob Wilson (ATH).
RHP Jameson Taillon has been giving up plenty to righties — .257 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Nick Sogard (BOS), and Wilyer Abreu (BOS).

Platoon edges to target

Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .273 against righties this year.
Yandy Díaz (TB) — righty bat vs LHP, .261 against lefties this year.
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .278 against righties this year.
Jung Hoo Lee (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .287 against righties this year.
Jeff McNeil (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .242 against righties this year.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Jake McCarthy (COL), Iván Herrera (STL), Tyler Soderstrom (ATH), Brandon Nimmo (TEX), Jordan Walker (STL), and Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD). Cold but due to bounce back: Jeremy Peña (HOU), Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Jung Hoo Lee (SF), Osleivis Basabe (SF), and Austin Martin (MIN).

How it played out

10 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 2 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Monday, August 10, 2026)?: Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Noah Cameron. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Monday, August 10, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Monday, August 10, 2026: Shohei Ohtani (100), Jake McCarthy (100), Jeremy Peña (90), Yandy Díaz (89), Yordan Alvarez (89). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Monday, August 10, 2026?: Yes — Shohei Ohtani got 2 hits.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .273 against righties this year. Yandy Díaz (TB) — righty bat vs LHP, .261 against lefties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .278 against righties this year. Jung Hoo Lee (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .287 against righties this year. Jeff McNeil (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .242 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Freddy Peralta has been vulnerable to righties — .270 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jeff McNeil (ATH), Tyler Soderstrom (ATH), and Jacob Wilson (ATH). RHP Jameson Taillon has been giving up plenty to righties — .257 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Nick Sogard (BOS), and Wilyer Abreu (BOS).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Jake McCarthy (COL), Iván Herrera (STL), Tyler Soderstrom (ATH), Brandon Nimmo (TEX), Jordan Walker (STL), and Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD). Cold but due to bounce back: Jeremy Peña (HOU), Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Jung Hoo Lee (SF), Osleivis Basabe (SF), and Austin Martin (MIN).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.