Who has the best hits matchup today (Sunday, August 9, 2026)?

Alec Burleson (STL) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Sunday, August 9, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Sunday, August 9, 2026: Alec Burleson (100), Jeremy Peña (100), Shohei Ohtani (100), Kevin McGonigle (98), Freddie Freeman (92). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Sunday, August 9, 2026?

Yes — Alec Burleson got 1 hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .287 against righties this year. Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .254 against righties this year. Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .265 against righties this year. Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .256 against righties this year. Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .290 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties — .288 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Alec Burleson (STL), Jordan Walker (STL), and Iván Herrera (STL). LHP Cade Povich has been vulnerable to lefties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Brandon Nimmo (TEX), Corey Seager (TEX), and Wyatt Langford (TEX). RHP Shane Bieber has been vulnerable to righties — .285 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Trea Turner (PHI), Luis Arraez (PHI), and Bryce Harper (PHI). LHP Eduardo Rodriguez has been vulnerable to lefties — .263 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Freddie Freeman (LAD), and Andy Pages (LAD).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Sunday, August 9, 2026

Every hitter on the Sunday, August 9, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Sunday, August 9, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 3/5 (60%) on 1+ hit, against 66% on the season.

Top 5

3/560%

season 66%

Top 10

7/1070%

season 68%

Full slate

161/27060%

season 58%

Top call Alec Burleson came through. Jeremy Peña didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 1–7

CINaway

WSHhomeTop matchup72 Final · 2–1

ATLaway

NYYhomeTop matchup68 Final · 4–3

ATHaway

BOShomeTop matchup76 Final · 11–1

NYMaway

PIThomeTop matchup65 Final · 6–7

TORaway

PHIhomeTop matchup86 Final · 3–12

LAAaway

MIAhomeTop matchup72 Final · 10–2

CHCaway

KChomeTop matchup76 Final · 3–5

CLEaway

CWShomeTop matchup79 Final · 3–4

MINaway

MILhomeTop matchup57 Final · 4–7

COLaway

STLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 10–5

BALaway

TEXhomeTop matchup81 Final · 3–1

DETaway

SFhomeTop matchup98 Final · 2–4

LADaway

AZhomeTop matchup100 Final · 4–1

TBaway

SEAhomeTop matchup90 Final · 2–7

HOUaway

SDhomeTop matchup100

Not starting63 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 333 shownScore

167 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@PIT· 5-for-5
5HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #92
2
Chandler SimpsonLF
TB@SEA· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #8
T2
Iván HerreraDH
STLvsCOL· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #12
T2
Yandy DíazDH
TB@SEA· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #14
5
Alex Bregman3B
CHC@KC· 3-for-6
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #74
T5
Pete Alonso1B
BAL@TEX· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #77
T5
Michael Busch1B
CHC@KC· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #103
T5
Keibert RuizC
WSHvsCIN· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #139
T5
Eli WhiteRF
BOSvsATH· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #182
T5
Jared Young1B
NYM@PIT· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #193
T5
Ian HappLF
CHC@KC· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #216
T5
Coby Mayo3B
BAL@TEX· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #228
13
Jake McCarthyLF
COL@STL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #6
T13
Jordan WalkerRF
STLvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #9
T13
Steven KwanLF
CLE@CWS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #13
T13
JJ Wetherholt2B
STLvsCOL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #20
T13
Kyle Stowers1B
MIAvsLAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #23
T13
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SDvsHOU· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T13
Abimelec Ortiz1B
WSHvsCIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T13
Hunter GoodmanC
COL@STL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T13
Alejandro KirkC
TOR@PHI· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T13
Jackson Holliday2B
BAL@TEX· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T13
Jake MangumCF
PITvsNYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #41
T13
Andy PagesCF
LAD@AZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #50
T13
Brenton DoyleCF
CWSvsCLE· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #52
T13
Cole Young2B
SEAvsTB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #57
T13
Brett BatemanCF
TOR@PHI· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #59
T13
Daylen LileLF
WSHvsCIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #61
T13
Masyn WinnSS
STLvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #75
T13
Liam HicksC
TB@SEA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #79
T13
Henry BolteCF
ATH@BOS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T13
Otto LopezSS
MIAvsLAA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #83
T13
Nathan ChurchCF
STLvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #91
T13
Michael Massey2B
KCvsCHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #95
T13
Nico Hoerner2B
CHC@KC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #98
T13
Carson BengeRF
NYM@PIT· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #100
T13
José Ramírez3B
CLE@CWS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T13
Griffin ConineRF
MIAvsLAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #116
T13
Rafael Devers1B
SFvsDET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #126
T13
Jake Bauers1B
MILvsMIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #128
T13
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHIvsTOR· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #138
T13
Jackson MerrillCF
SDvsHOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #149
T13
Jorbit Vivas3B
WSHvsCIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #151
T13
Drew GilbertCF
SFvsDET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #154
T13
Alec Bohm3B
PHIvsTOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #158
T13
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEAvsTB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #160
T13
Miguel AmayaC
CHC@KC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #162
T13
Leody TaverasCF
BAL@TEX· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #173
T13
Cam CauleyCF
TEXvsBAL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #174
T13
Bryson Stott2B
PHIvsTOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #175
T13
Trent GrishamCF
NYYvsATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #176
T13
Luis Robert Jr.CF
NYM@PIT· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #178
T13
Jose SiriCF
LAA@MIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #180
T13
Brett SullivanC
COL@STL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #181
T13
Luis RengifoLF
SDvsHOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #188
T13
Spencer Torkelson1B
DET@SF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #196
T13
Jakob MarseeCF
MIAvsLAA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #204
T13
Michael ConfortoDH
CHC@KC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #211
T13
Colton CowserCF
BAL@TEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #214
T13
Owen CaissieRF
MIAvsLAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #224
T13
Javier Sanoja3B
MIAvsLAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #238
T13
Brooks Lee3B
MIN@MIL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #247
T13
Freddy FerminC
SDvsHOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #255
T13
Victor CaratiniC
MIN@MIL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #263
65
Alec Burleson1B
STLvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #1
T65
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@SF· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #4
T65
Freddie Freeman1B
LAD@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T65
Jonathan Aranda1B
TB@SEA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #7
T65
Brandon NimmoRF
TEXvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #11
T65
Ty France1B
SDvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #21
T65
CJ AbramsSS
WSHvsCIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #24
T65
Randal GrichukDH
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #31
T65
Cole CarriggCF
COL@STL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T65
Wade MecklerLF
LAA@MIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T65
Kyle Karros3B
COL@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T65
Mickey MoniakLF
COL@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #46
T65
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TOR@PHI· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T65
Jac CaglianoneRF
KCvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #49
T65
Sal Stewart1B
CIN@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #56
T65
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEXvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #58
T65
Tyler StephensonC
CIN@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #68
T65
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHC@KC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #69
T65
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATH@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #71
T65
Salvador PerezDH
KCvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #73
T65
Bryan TorresLF
STLvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #76
T65
Jackson ChourioLF
MILvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #78
T65
Gabriel MorenoC
AZvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #80
T65
Brice Turang2B
MILvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #81
T65
Ernie Clement2B
TOR@PHI· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #84
T65
Anthony Seigler2B
BOSvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #86
T65
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAA@MIA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T65
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZvsLAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #89
T65
Starling MarteRF
KCvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T65
JJ BledayLF
CIN@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #93
T65
J.T. RealmutoC
PHIvsTOR· 1-for-6
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #94
T65
Jake Burger1B
TEXvsBAL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #97
T65
Kyle TuckerRF
LAD@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T65
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TOR@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T65
Taylor WardDH
SEAvsTB· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #104
T65
Michael Harris IICF
ATL@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #105
T65
Munetaka Murakami1B
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #106
T65
Matt Olson1B
ATL@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T65
Miguel Vargas3B
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #109
T65
Dylan BeaversRF
BAL@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #111
T65
Ronny Simon2B
PITvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #113
T65
Ildemaro Vargas1B
AZvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T65
Ketel Marte2B
AZvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #119
T65
Jonah HeimC
ATH@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #120
T65
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PITvsNYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #122
T65
Francisco LindorSS
NYM@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #123
T65
Willi Castro2B
COL@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #124
T65
Manny Machado3B
SDvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #129
T65
Jacob WilsonSS
ATH@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #130
T65
Moisés BallesterosDH
LAA@MIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #131
T65
Zach NetoSS
LAA@MIA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #132
T65
Justin Foscue2B
TEXvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #133
T65
Bryce EldridgeDH
SFvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #134
T65
Luke MaileC
KCvsCHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #140
T65
Colson MontgomerySS
CWSvsCLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #144
T65
Brandon MarshLF
PHIvsTOR· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #145
T65
Taylor TrammellCF
HOU@SD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #152
T65
Jeff McNeil2B
ATH@BOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #153
T65
Daulton VarshoCF
HOU@SD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #168
T65
Willy AdamesSS
SFvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #169
T65
Zach McKinstry2B
DET@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #172
T65
Jonah Bride3B
TEXvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #179
T65
Eduardo ValenciaDH
DET@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #183
T65
Andrés GiménezSS
TOR@PHI· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #184
T65
Justin CrawfordCF
PHIvsTOR· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #189
T65
Dylan CrewsRF
WSHvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #191
T65
Tyler O'NeillRF
BAL@TEX· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #192
T65
Dansby SwansonSS
CHC@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #197
T65
Myles StrawCF
TOR@PHI· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #201
T65
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIAvsLAA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #203
T65
Adam Frazier2B
LAA@MIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #205
T65
Ozzie Albies2B
ATL@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #207
T65
Josh Naylor1B
SEAvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #209
T65
Gary SánchezC
MILvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #217
T65
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSHvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #220
T65
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYYvsATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #221
T65
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATL@NYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #222
T65
Brayan RocchioSS
CLE@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #226
T65
Matt McLain2B
CIN@WSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #229
T65
Cedric MullinsCF
TB@SEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #234
T65
Marcus Semien2B
NYM@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #235
T65
David Hamilton3B
MILvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #236
T65
Max Muncy3B
ATH@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #237
T65
Ben RortvedtC
LAD@AZ· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #240
T65
Tyrone TaylorLF
CHC@KC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #243
T65
Francisco AlvarezC
NYM@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #244
T65
Austin WellsC
NYYvsATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #245
T65
Tim Tawa1B
AZvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #249
T65
Richie Palacios2B
TB@SEA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #253
T65
Jake RogersC
BOSvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #254
T65
Enrique Hernández1B
LAD@AZ· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #257
T65
Kody Clemens1B
MIN@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #260
T65
Taylor WallsSS
TB@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #261
T65
Carlos NarváezC
BAL@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #262
T65
Christian Koss3B
SFvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #265
T65
Tyler Locklear1B
AZvsLAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #266
T65
Gavin Sheets1B
SDvsHOU· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #267
T65
Jahmai JonesDH
BOSvsATH· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H
T65
Garrett MitchellCF
MILvsMIN· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T65
Nathan LukesRF
TOR@PHI· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T65
Joe MackC
MIAvsLAA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T65
Nicky Lopez2B
TEXvsBAL· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T65
Alika WilliamsSS
ATH@BOS· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Sunday, August 9, 2026

Alec Burleson (STL) is the top hits matchup on the Sunday, August 9, 2026 board at 100, with Jeremy Peña (HOU) and Shohei Ohtani (LAD) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Alec Burleson

Alec Burleson (STL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. The lefty is hitting .287 H/PA against righties this year — and .300 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 27% of his trips. And Michael Lorenzen has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .381 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Michael Lorenzen too — .800 across 5 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Jeremy Peña (HOU) (100) vs RHP Randy Vásquez: an excellent bat at .294 into an arm tough on the same side (.048), due to bounce back.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs LHP Eduardo Rodriguez: an excellent bat at .281 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.381).
Kevin McGonigle (DET) (98) vs RHP Logan Webb: an excellent bat at .276 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.243).
Freddie Freeman (LAD) (92) vs LHP Eduardo Rodriguez: an excellent bat at .275 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.381), due to bounce back.
Jake McCarthy (COL) (90) vs RHP Michael McGreevy: a strong bat at .263 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.292), hot bat.
Jonathan Aranda (TB) (90) vs RHP Emerson Hancock: a strong bat at .263 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.323), hot bat.
Chandler Simpson (TB) (87) vs RHP Emerson Hancock: an excellent bat at .284 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.323).

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties — .288 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Alec Burleson (STL), Jordan Walker (STL), and Iván Herrera (STL).
LHP Cade Povich has been vulnerable to lefties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Brandon Nimmo (TEX), Corey Seager (TEX), and Wyatt Langford (TEX).
RHP Shane Bieber has been vulnerable to righties — .285 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Trea Turner (PHI), Luis Arraez (PHI), and Bryce Harper (PHI).
LHP Eduardo Rodriguez has been vulnerable to lefties — .263 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Freddie Freeman (LAD), and Andy Pages (LAD).

Platoon edges to target

Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .287 against righties this year.
Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .254 against righties this year.
Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .265 against righties this year.
Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .256 against righties this year.
Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .290 against righties this year.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Jake McCarthy (COL), Jonathan Aranda (TB), Jordan Walker (STL), Steven Kwan (CLE), Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), and Wilyer Abreu (BOS). Cold but due to bounce back: Alec Burleson (STL), Jeremy Peña (HOU), Freddie Freeman (LAD), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Ty France (SD).

How it played out

7 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Alec Burleson finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Sunday, August 9, 2026)?: Alec Burleson (STL) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Sunday, August 9, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Sunday, August 9, 2026: Alec Burleson (100), Jeremy Peña (100), Shohei Ohtani (100), Kevin McGonigle (98), Freddie Freeman (92). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Sunday, August 9, 2026?: Yes — Alec Burleson got 1 hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .287 against righties this year. Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .254 against righties this year. Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .265 against righties this year. Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .256 against righties this year. Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .290 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties — .288 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Alec Burleson (STL), Jordan Walker (STL), and Iván Herrera (STL). LHP Cade Povich has been vulnerable to lefties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Brandon Nimmo (TEX), Corey Seager (TEX), and Wyatt Langford (TEX). RHP Shane Bieber has been vulnerable to righties — .285 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Trea Turner (PHI), Luis Arraez (PHI), and Bryce Harper (PHI). LHP Eduardo Rodriguez has been vulnerable to lefties — .263 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Freddie Freeman (LAD), and Andy Pages (LAD).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Jake McCarthy (COL), Jonathan Aranda (TB), Jordan Walker (STL), Steven Kwan (CLE), Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), and Wilyer Abreu (BOS). Cold but due to bounce back: Alec Burleson (STL), Jeremy Peña (HOU), Freddie Freeman (LAD), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Ty France (SD).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.