Who has the best hits matchup today (Tuesday, August 11, 2026)?

Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Blake Snell. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Tuesday, August 11, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Tuesday, August 11, 2026: Bobby Witt Jr. (100), Jonathan Aranda (100), Jake McCarthy (98), Freddie Freeman (97), Trea Turner (95). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Tuesday, August 11, 2026?

Yes — Bobby Witt Jr. got 2 hits.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .277 against lefties this year. Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .260 against righties this year. Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .284 against righties this year. Jose Altuve (HOU) — righty bat vs LHP, .232 against lefties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .236 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

LHP Patrick Sandoval has been vulnerable to lefties — .284 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Brett Bateman (TOR), Charles McAdoo (TOR), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR). LHP Carson Whisenhunt has been vulnerable to lefties — .281 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jose Altuve (HOU), Isaac Paredes (HOU), and Jeremy Peña (HOU). RHP Walker Buehler has been vulnerable to righties — .280 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Brice Turang (MIL), Jackson Chourio (MIL), and Jake Bauers (MIL). RHP Brandon Young has been vulnerable to righties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ryan Jeffers (MIN), Royce Lewis (MIN), and Trevor Larnach (MIN).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Tuesday, August 11, 2026

Every hitter on the Tuesday, August 11, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Tuesday, August 11, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 2/5 (40%) on 1+ hit, against 67% on the season.

Top 5

2/540%

season 67%

Top 10

5/1050%

season 68%

Full slate

154/27057%

season 58%

Top call Bobby Witt Jr. came through. Jonathan Aranda didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 4–6

CLEaway

DEThomeTop matchup69 Final · 0–2

PITaway

MIAhomeTop matchup71 Final · 8–6

CHCaway

WSHhomeTop matchup76 Final · 1–4

SEAaway

NYYhomeTop matchup72 Final · 3–5

BOSaway

TORhomeTop matchup93 Final · 0–4

NYMaway

ATLhomeTop matchup78 Final · 5–4

CINaway

CWShomeTop matchup61 Final · 5–2

BALaway

MINhomeTop matchup79 Final · 0–2

PHIaway

STLhomeTop matchup95 Final · 2–3

TEXaway

LAAhomeTop matchup73 Final · 3–2

COLaway

AZhomeTop matchup98 Final · 12–4

TBaway

ATHhomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–11

MILaway

SDhomeTop matchup92 Final · 1–4

HOUaway

SFhomeTop matchup95 Final · 4–5

KCaway

LADhomeTop matchup100

Not starting62 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 332 shownScore

160 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Pete Alonso1B
BAL@MIN· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #25
T1
Brady House3B
WSHvsCHC· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T1
Christian Encarnacion-Strand3B
BAL@MIN· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T1
Gunnar HendersonSS
BAL@MIN· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #130
T1
Manny Machado3B
SDvsMIL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #153
T1
Chase DeLauterRF
CLE@DET· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #157
T1
Luis CampusanoC
SDvsMIL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #187
T1
Mookie BettsSS
LADvsKC· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #201
9
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KC@LAD· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #1
T9
Brett BatemanCF
TORvsBOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #7
T9
Chandler SimpsonLF
TB@ATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #11
T9
Isaac Paredes3B
HOU@SF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #12
T9
Jac CaglianoneRF
KC@LAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #18
T9
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHC@WSH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #31
T9
Royce Lewis1B
MINvsBAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T9
Steven KwanLF
CLE@DET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #47
T9
Kevin McGonigleSS
DETvsCLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #50
T9
Alex Bregman3B
CHC@WSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #57
T9
Luis García Jr.1B
NYYvsSEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #58
T9
Jackson MerrillCF
SDvsMIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #62
T9
Zach NetoSS
LAAvsTEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #69
T9
Nico Hoerner2B
CHC@WSH· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #71
T9
Cole CarriggCF
COL@AZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #73
T9
Alejandro KirkC
TORvsBOS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #77
T9
Nolan Arenado3B
AZvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #83
T9
Masyn WinnSS
STLvsPHI· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #84
T9
Brandon NimmoRF
TEX@LAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #91
T9
Luis RengifoLF
SDvsMIL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #94
T9
Osleivis Basabe2B
SFvsHOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #98
T9
Willy AdamesSS
SFvsHOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #116
T9
Ty France1B
SDvsMIL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #125
T9
Austin HaysLF
SDvsMIL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #132
T9
Jacob YoungCF
WSHvsCHC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #134
T9
Ketel Marte2B
AZvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #145
T9
Carson BengeRF
NYM@ATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #147
T9
Tim Tawa1B
AZvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #151
T9
Brooks Lee3B
MINvsBAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #164
T9
Victor Mesa Jr.RF
TB@ATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #176
T9
Drew CavanaughC
SFvsHOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #178
T9
Trent GrishamCF
NYYvsSEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #179
T9
Richie Palacios2B
TB@ATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #207
T9
Eugenio SuárezDH
CIN@CWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #213
T9
Max Muncy3B
LADvsKC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #217
T9
Myles StrawCF
TORvsBOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #223
T9
Taylor WallsSS
TB@ATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #243
T9
Andrew Vaughn1B
MIL@SD· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
47
Trea TurnerSS
PHI@STL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T47
Brice Turang2B
MIL@SD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #9
T47
Zack Gelof3B
ATHvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #10
T47
Gabriel MorenoC
AZvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #17
T47
Yandy DíazDH
TB@ATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #19
T47
Jeff McNeil2B
ATHvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #20
T47
Jacob WilsonSS
ATHvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #21
T47
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #23
T47
Ryan JeffersC
MINvsBAL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T47
Andy PagesCF
LADvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #28
T47
Dylan CrewsRF
WSHvsCHC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T47
Joc PedersonDH
TEX@LAA· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T47
Junior Caminero3B
TB@ATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T47
Otto LopezSS
MIAvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #44
T47
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAAvsTEX· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T47
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SDvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #54
T47
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TORvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #56
T47
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEA@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #60
T47
Matt Olson1B
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #63
T47
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHI@STL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #64
T47
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEX@LAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #65
T47
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #66
T47
Masataka YoshidaDH
BOS@TOR· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #67
T47
Gleyber Torres2B
DETvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #68
T47
Salvador PerezDH
KC@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #74
T47
Brenton DoyleCF
CWSvsCIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #76
T47
Randal GrichukDH
CWSvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #79
T47
José FermínLF
STLvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T47
Xavier Edwards2B
MIAvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #86
T47
Wade MecklerLF
LAAvsTEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #87
T47
Garrett MitchellCF
MIL@SD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T47
Elly De La CruzSS
CIN@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T47
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAAvsTEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #92
T47
Harry FordC
WSHvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #95
T47
Luke Keaschall2B
MINvsBAL· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #96
T47
CJ AbramsSS
WSHvsCHC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #97
T47
George SpringerDH
TORvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T47
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATHvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #102
T47
Nathaniel Lowe1B
CLE@DET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #103
T47
Tyler StephensonC
CIN@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #106
T47
Henry BolteCF
ATHvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #111
T47
Corbin CarrollRF
AZvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #113
T47
Munetaka Murakami1B
CWSvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #114
T47
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEA@NYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #115
T47
George Lombard Jr.SS
NYYvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #119
T47
Griffin ConineRF
MIAvsPIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #120
T47
Sal Stewart1B
CIN@CWS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #122
T47
Francisco LindorSS
NYM@ATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #123
T47
Cam SmithRF
HOU@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #126
T47
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHC@WSH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #128
T47
Bryson Stott2B
PHI@STL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #135
T47
Andrés GiménezSS
TORvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #136
T47
Carlos CortesRF
ATHvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #137
T47
Kyle Karros3B
COL@AZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #138
T47
Tyler O'NeillRF
BAL@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #139
T47
Kaelen CulpepperSS
MINvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #141
T47
Brandon MarshLF
PHI@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #148
T47
Alec Bohm3B
PHI@STL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #156
T47
Ozzie Albies2B
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #159
T47
Javier Sanoja3B
MIAvsPIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #165
T47
Jordan BeckLF
COL@AZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #166
T47
Luis LaraRF
MIL@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #167
T47
Bryce EldridgeDH
SFvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #169
T47
Miguel Vargas3B
CWSvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #170
T47
Ronny Simon2B
PIT@MIA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #171
T47
Hunter GoodmanC
COL@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #172
T47
Drew GilbertCF
SFvsHOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #175
T47
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOS@TOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #177
T47
Adley RutschmanC
BOS@TOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #181
T47
Andruw MonasterioSS
BOS@TOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #184
T47
Ian HappLF
CHC@WSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #185
T47
Carson KellyC
CHC@WSH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #186
T47
Everson PereiraRF
STLvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #188
T47
Yohel PozoC
BAL@MIN· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #189
T47
Donovan Walton2B
ATHvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #191
T47
Alec Burleson1B
STLvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #192
T47
Sam AntonacciLF
CWSvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #197
T47
Daulton VarshoCF
HOU@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #198
T47
David Hamilton3B
MIL@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #199
T47
Tyler TolbertSS
KC@LAD· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #200
T47
Xander BogaertsSS
SDvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #204
T47
Luis Robert Jr.CF
NYM@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #206
T47
Austin WynnsC
TEX@LAA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #209
T47
Pedro PagésC
STLvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #212
T47
Tommy Edman2B
LADvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #215
T47
Ryan McMahon3B
NYYvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #219
T47
Brendan Donovan3B
SEA@NYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #220
T47
Nathan LukesRF
TORvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #222
T47
Spencer Torkelson1B
DETvsCLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #225
T47
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSHvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #226
T47
Jacob GonzalezSS
PIT@MIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #227
T47
Javier BáezSS
DETvsCLE· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #228
T47
Max ClarkCF
DETvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #233
T47
Jake Cronenworth2B
SDvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #234
T47
Edgar QueroC
CWSvsCIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #236
T47
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYYvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #238
T47
Travis Bazzana2B
CLE@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #239
T47
Jarren DuranLF
BOS@TOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #240
T47
Angel MartínezLF
CLE@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #241
T47
Esteury RuizRF
MIAvsPIT· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #245
T47
Jo AdellRF
CLE@DET· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #246
T47
Matt McLain2B
CIN@CWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #249
T47
Ezequiel TovarSS
COL@AZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #250
T47
Nick Sogard2B
BOS@TOR· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #253
T47
Austin WellsC
NYYvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #255
T47
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PIT@MIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #259
T47
Alex CallLF
LADvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #263
T47
Christian Koss3B
SFvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #264
T47
Henry DavisC
PIT@MIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #265
T47
Abimelec Ortiz1B
WSHvsCHC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H
T47
Brandon LockridgeLF
MIL@SD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T47
Jorbit Vivas3B
WSHvsCHC· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T47
LaMonte Wade Jr.LF
HOU@SF· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T47
Teoscar HernándezLF
LADvsKC· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Tuesday, August 11, 2026

Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) is the top hits matchup on the Tuesday, August 11, 2026 board at 100, with Jonathan Aranda (TB) and Jake McCarthy (COL) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Bobby Witt Jr.

Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Blake Snell. The righty is hitting .277 H/PA against lefties this year — and .100 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a hit in about 25% of his trips. And Blake Snell has been thin against lefties lately. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Blake Snell too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Jonathan Aranda (TB) (100) vs RHP Mason Barnett: an excellent bat at .274 into an arm tough on the same side (.167), hot bat.
Jake McCarthy (COL) (98) vs LHP Mitch Bratt: a strong bat at .260 into an arm tough on the same side (.167), hot bat.
Freddie Freeman (LAD) (97) vs RHP Michael Wacha: a strong bat at .267 into an arm tough on the same side (.138).
Trea Turner (PHI) (95) vs RHP Andre Pallante: a strong bat at .261 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.316).
Jose Altuve (HOU) (95) vs LHP Carson Whisenhunt: a solid bat at .249 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.367), due to bounce back.
Brett Bateman (TOR) (93) vs LHP Patrick Sandoval: a strong bat at .259 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.286).
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (93) vs RHP Michael Wacha: a strong bat at .251 into an arm tough on the same side (.138).

Pitchers getting tattooed today

LHP Patrick Sandoval has been vulnerable to lefties — .284 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Brett Bateman (TOR), Charles McAdoo (TOR), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR).
LHP Carson Whisenhunt has been vulnerable to lefties — .281 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jose Altuve (HOU), Isaac Paredes (HOU), and Jeremy Peña (HOU).
RHP Walker Buehler has been vulnerable to righties — .280 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Brice Turang (MIL), Jackson Chourio (MIL), and Jake Bauers (MIL).
RHP Brandon Young has been vulnerable to righties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ryan Jeffers (MIN), Royce Lewis (MIN), and Trevor Larnach (MIN).

Platoon edges to target

Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .277 against lefties this year.
Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .260 against righties this year.
Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .284 against righties this year.
Jose Altuve (HOU) — righty bat vs LHP, .232 against lefties this year.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .236 against righties this year.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Jake McCarthy (COL), Iván Herrera (STL), Jordan Walker (STL), Gabriel Moreno (AZ), and Jac Caglianone (KC). Cold but due to bounce back: Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), Jose Altuve (HOU), Luis Arraez (PHI), Christian Walker (HOU), and Bryce Harper (PHI).

How it played out

5 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Bobby Witt Jr. finished with 2 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Tuesday, August 11, 2026)?: Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Blake Snell. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Tuesday, August 11, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Tuesday, August 11, 2026: Bobby Witt Jr. (100), Jonathan Aranda (100), Jake McCarthy (98), Freddie Freeman (97), Trea Turner (95). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Tuesday, August 11, 2026?: Yes — Bobby Witt Jr. got 2 hits.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) — righty bat vs LHP, .277 against lefties this year. Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .260 against righties this year. Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .284 against righties this year. Jose Altuve (HOU) — righty bat vs LHP, .232 against lefties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .236 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: LHP Patrick Sandoval has been vulnerable to lefties — .284 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Brett Bateman (TOR), Charles McAdoo (TOR), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR). LHP Carson Whisenhunt has been vulnerable to lefties — .281 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jose Altuve (HOU), Isaac Paredes (HOU), and Jeremy Peña (HOU). RHP Walker Buehler has been vulnerable to righties — .280 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Brice Turang (MIL), Jackson Chourio (MIL), and Jake Bauers (MIL). RHP Brandon Young has been vulnerable to righties — .273 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ryan Jeffers (MIN), Royce Lewis (MIN), and Trevor Larnach (MIN).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Jake McCarthy (COL), Iván Herrera (STL), Jordan Walker (STL), Gabriel Moreno (AZ), and Jac Caglianone (KC). Cold but due to bounce back: Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), Jose Altuve (HOU), Luis Arraez (PHI), Christian Walker (HOU), and Bryce Harper (PHI).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.