Who has the best hits matchup today (Thursday, September 3, 2026)?

Yandy Díaz (TB) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Cal Quantrill. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Thursday, September 3, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Thursday, September 3, 2026: Yandy Díaz (100), Otto Lopez (95), Coby Mayo (94), Bobby Witt Jr. (90), Mookie Betts (89). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Thursday, September 3, 2026?

Yes — Yandy Díaz got 2 hits.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Coby Mayo (BAL) — righty bat vs LHP, .293 against lefties this year. Mookie Betts (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .204 against lefties this year. Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .298 against righties this year. Teoscar Hernández (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .243 against lefties this year. Roman Anthony (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .213 against righties this year.

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Thursday, September 3, 2026

Every hitter on the Thursday, September 3, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Thursday, September 3, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 2/5 (40%) on 1+ hit, against 67% on the season.

Top call Yandy Díaz came through. Otto Lopez didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 2–5

SFaway

PIThomeTop matchup83 Final · 6–3

TORaway

CLEhomeTop matchup78 Final · 2–6

CWSaway

HOUhomeTop matchup88 Final · 1–2

MILaway

CHChomeTop matchup79 Final · 6–5

BOSaway

BALhomeTop matchup94 Final · 3–7

MIAaway

KChomeTop matchup95 Final · 0–6

TBaway

TEXhomeTop matchup100 Final · 7–4

ATHaway

SEAhomeTop matchup75 Final · 2–3

STLaway

LADhomeTop matchup89

Not starting40 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 202 shownScore

100 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Tommy Edman2B
LADvsSTL· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #15
2
Brett BatemanCF
TOR@CLE· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #23
T2
Carter JensenC
KCvsMIA· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #36
4
Yandy DíazDH
TB@TEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #1
T4
Teoscar HernándezLF
LADvsSTL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #8
T4
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsTOR· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #17
T4
Henry BolteCF
ATH@SEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #21
T4
Nathan LukesRF
TOR@CLE· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #28
T4
Jac CaglianoneRF
KCvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #46
T4
Adley RutschmanC
BOS@BAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #60
T4
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATH@SEA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #66
T4
Zack Gelof3B
ATH@SEA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #74
T4
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@LAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #84
T4
Christian Encarnacion-Strand3B
BALvsBOS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #87
T4
Miguel Vargas3B
CWS@HOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #90
T4
Christian Walker1B
HOUvsCWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #91
T4
Iván HerreraDH
STL@LAD· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #109
T4
Chase Meidroth2B
CWS@HOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #118
T4
Jeff McNeil2B
ATH@SEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #126
T4
Kyle IsbelCF
KCvsMIA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #128
T4
Leo BernalC
STL@LAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #129
T4
Cole Young2B
SEAvsATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #150
23
Coby Mayo3B
BALvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #3
T23
Roman AnthonyLF
BOS@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #9
T23
Spencer Horwitz1B
PITvsSF· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #11
T23
Blaze Alexander3B
BALvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #13
T23
Nick Gonzales3B
PITvsSF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #18
T23
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIA@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #20
T23
Chase DeLauterRF
CLEvsTOR· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #22
T23
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEAvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T23
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@KC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T23
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@KC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T23
Jake MangumCF
PITvsSF· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #31
T23
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T23
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #38
T23
Jose Altuve2B
HOUvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #39
T23
José Ramírez3B
CLEvsTOR· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #40
T23
Jesús SánchezRF
TOR@CLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #41
T23
Luis Robert Jr.CF
BALvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #42
T23
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #44
T23
Julio RodríguezCF
SEAvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #45
T23
Gunnar HendersonSS
BALvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #47
T23
Salvador PerezDH
KCvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #48
T23
Drew GilbertCF
SF@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #52
T23
Sean KeysDH
TOR@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #53
T23
Sam AntonacciLF
CWS@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #54
T23
Nathaniel Lowe1B
CLEvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #56
T23
Vinnie Pasquantino1B
KCvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #57
T23
Daulton VarshoCF
HOUvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #62
T23
Angel Genao2B
CLEvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #63
T23
José FermínLF
STL@LAD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #64
T23
Nick Sogard2B
BOS@BAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #69
T23
Jo AdellRF
CLEvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #71
T23
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEAvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #73
T23
Alex Bregman3B
CHCvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #75
T23
Eli WhiteRF
BOS@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #76
T23
Andrew Vaughn1B
MIL@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #77
T23
Justin Foscue2B
TEXvsTB· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #78
T23
Ernie Clement2B
TOR@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #79
T23
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #81
T23
Yainer DiazC
HOUvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #82
T23
Michael Massey2B
KCvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #83
T23
Jonah HeimC
ATH@SEA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #85
T23
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEXvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T23
Isiah Kiner-Falefa2B
BOS@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #89
T23
Rafael Flores Jr.C
PITvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #96
T23
Corey SeagerSS
TEXvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #97
T23
Agustín RamírezDH
MIA@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #100
T23
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWS@HOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #103
T23
Joshua BáezLF
STL@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #104
T23
Nick FortesC
TB@TEX· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #106
T23
Andrés GiménezSS
TOR@CLE· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #107
T23
Jake Burger1B
TEXvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #110
T23
Alika WilliamsSS
ATH@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #111
T23
Lazaro MontesRF
SEAvsATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #114
T23
Taylor TrammellCF
HOUvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #115
T23
Christian YelichDH
MIL@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #116
T23
Joe MackC
MIA@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #119
T23
Jakob MarseeCF
MIA@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #121
T23
Logan O'HoppeDH
TEXvsTB· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #122
T23
Austin HedgesC
CLEvsTOR· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #131
T23
Michael Stefanic2B
ATH@SEA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #133
T23
David Hamilton3B
MIL@CHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #135
T23
Garrett MitchellCF
MIL@CHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #139
T23
LaMonte Wade Jr.LF
HOUvsCWS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #140
T23
Cal RaleighC
SEAvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #143
T23
Joey OrtizSS
MIL@CHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #145
T23
Ramón Urías3B
STL@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #146
T23
Max Muncy3B
ATH@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #147
T23
Brian ServenC
ATH@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #153
T23
Nathan ChurchCF
STL@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #154
T23
Elias DíazC
TEXvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #155
T23
Thomas SaggeseLF
STL@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #156
T23
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEAvsATH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #157
T23
Carson KellyC
CHCvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #158
T23
Jake RogersC
CWS@HOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.7 H, #159
T23
Pedro PagésC
STL@LAD· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #160
T23
Brock RoddenSS
SEAvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #161
T23
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SF@PIT· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T23
Nick Loftin3B
KCvsMIA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Thursday, September 3, 2026

Yandy Díaz (TB) is the top hits matchup on the Thursday, September 3, 2026 board at 100, with Otto Lopez (MIA) and Coby Mayo (BAL) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Yandy Díaz

Yandy Díaz (TB) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Cal Quantrill. The righty is hitting .272 H/PA against righties this year — and .256 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 27% of his trips. And Cal Quantrill has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .300 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .250 in 12 career PA against Cal Quantrill. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Otto Lopez (MIA) (95) vs RHP Michael Wacha: a strong bat at .268 into an arm tough on the same side (.143), hot bat.
Coby Mayo (BAL) (94) vs LHP Jake Bennett: a strong bat at .258 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) (90) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: a strong bat at .258 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.273).
Mookie Betts (LAD) (89) vs LHP Quinn Mathews: a solid bat at .228 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333), hot bat.
Jeremy Peña (HOU) (88) vs RHP Luis Castillo: a strong bat at .261 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.353).
Chandler Simpson (TB) (86) vs RHP Cal Quantrill: an excellent bat at .279 into an arm tough on the same side (.160).
Teoscar Hernández (LAD) (83) vs LHP Quinn Mathews: a solid bat at .245 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333).

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Cal Quantrill has been vulnerable to righties — .268 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Yandy Díaz (TB), Chandler Simpson (TB), and Junior Caminero (TB).

Platoon edges to target

Coby Mayo (BAL) — righty bat vs LHP, .293 against lefties this year.
Mookie Betts (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .204 against lefties this year.
Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .298 against righties this year.
Teoscar Hernández (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .243 against lefties this year.
Roman Anthony (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .213 against righties this year.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Otto Lopez (MIA), Coby Mayo (BAL), Mookie Betts (LAD), Jackson Chourio (MIL), William Contreras (MIL), and Rafael Devers (SF). Cold but due to bounce back: Jose Altuve (HOU), Jesús Sánchez (TOR), Jonny DeLuca (TB), Gunnar Henderson (BAL), and Drew Gilbert (SF).

How it played out

4 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Yandy Díaz finished with 2 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Thursday, September 3, 2026)?: Yandy Díaz (TB) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Cal Quantrill. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Thursday, September 3, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Thursday, September 3, 2026: Yandy Díaz (100), Otto Lopez (95), Coby Mayo (94), Bobby Witt Jr. (90), Mookie Betts (89). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Thursday, September 3, 2026?: Yes — Yandy Díaz got 2 hits.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Coby Mayo (BAL) — righty bat vs LHP, .293 against lefties this year. Mookie Betts (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .204 against lefties this year. Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .298 against righties this year. Teoscar Hernández (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .243 against lefties this year. Roman Anthony (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .213 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Cal Quantrill has been vulnerable to righties — .268 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Yandy Díaz (TB), Chandler Simpson (TB), and Junior Caminero (TB).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Otto Lopez (MIA), Coby Mayo (BAL), Mookie Betts (LAD), Jackson Chourio (MIL), William Contreras (MIL), and Rafael Devers (SF). Cold but due to bounce back: Jose Altuve (HOU), Jesús Sánchez (TOR), Jonny DeLuca (TB), Gunnar Henderson (BAL), and Drew Gilbert (SF).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.