Who has the best hits matchup today (Wednesday, September 2, 2026)?

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Brycen Mautz. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Wednesday, September 2, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Wednesday, September 2, 2026: Shohei Ohtani (100), Pete Alonso (100), Jackson Chourio (100), Cody Bellinger (92), Nick Gonzales (90). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Wednesday, September 2, 2026?

No — Shohei Ohtani didn't record a hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .263 against lefties this year. Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .265 against lefties this year. Jackson Holliday (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .194 against righties this year. Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .254 against righties this year. Hunter Goodman (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .239 against lefties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

LHP Cody Bradford has been vulnerable to lefties — .289 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Lawrence Butler (ATH), Henry Bolte (ATH), and Jeff McNeil (ATH). LHP Patrick Sandoval has been vulnerable to lefties — .278 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Josh Naylor (SEA), Randy Arozarena (SEA), and Dominic Canzone (SEA). RHP Justin Hagenman has been vulnerable to righties — .277 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Chandler Simpson (TB), and Yandy Díaz (TB). RHP Tomoyuki Sugano has been vulnerable to righties — .265 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Alonso (BAL), Jackson Holliday (BAL), and Gunnar Henderson (BAL).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Wednesday, September 2, 2026

Every hitter on the Wednesday, September 2, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Wednesday, September 2, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 4/5 (80%) on 1+ hit, against 68% on the season.

Top 5

4/580%

season 68%

Top 10

9/1090%

season 68%

Full slate

161/27060%

season 59%

Top call Pete Alonso came through. Shohei Ohtani didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 3–7

SDaway

CINhomeTop matchup69 Final · 9–0

ATLaway

WSHhomeTop matchup65 Final · 9–2

ATHaway

TEXhomeTop matchup63 Final · 5–6

BALaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 0–1

PHIaway

AZhomeTop matchup78 Final · 8–3

SEAaway

BOShomeTop matchup78 Final · 10–4

NYMaway

TBhomeTop matchup85 Final · 5–4

SFaway

PIThomeTop matchup90 Final · 11–0

TORaway

CLEhomeTop matchup74 Final · 9–5

MILaway

CHChomeTop matchup100 Final · 11–6

DETaway

MINhomeTop matchup82 Final · 9–6

MIAaway

KChomeTop matchup67 Final · 0–2

CWSaway

HOUhomeTop matchup90 Final · 6–3

NYYaway

LAAhomeTop matchup92 Final · 8–6

STLaway

LADhomeTop matchup100

Not starting61 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 331 shownScore

171 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@CHC· 4-for-6
4HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #3
2
Cody BellingerLF
NYY@LAA· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #4
T2
Cole CarriggCF
COLvsBAL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #24
T2
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TOR@CLE· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T2
Chase DeLauterRF
CLEvsTOR· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #46
T2
Blaze Alexander3B
BAL@COL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T2
Henry BolteCF
ATH@TEX· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #67
T2
Roman AnthonyLF
BOSvsSEA· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #75
T2
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsATH· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #91
T2
Brooks Lee3B
MINvsDET· 3-for-6
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #100
T2
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@KC· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #105
T2
Teoscar HernándezLF
LADvsSTL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #114
T2
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF
ATL@WSH· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T2
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOSvsSEA· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #176
T2
Max ClarkCF
DET@MIN· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #187
T2
JJ BledayLF
CINvsSD· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #188
T2
Dane MyersCF
CINvsSD· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #201
T2
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEA@BOS· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #218
19
Paul Goldschmidt1B
NYY@LAA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #7
T19
Jackson Holliday2B
BAL@COL· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #8
T19
Jake McCarthyLF
COLvsBAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #9
T19
Andrew Vaughn1B
MIL@CHC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #14
T19
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsNYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #16
T19
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsSTL· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #18
T19
Mookie BettsSS
LADvsSTL· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #21
T19
Rafael Devers1B
SF@PIT· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #27
T19
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsCWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T19
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsBAL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T19
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PITvsSF· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #66
T19
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@TB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #70
T19
William ContrerasC
MIL@CHC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #73
T19
Carson BengeRF
NYM@TB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #79
T19
Elly De La CruzSS
CINvsSD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #80
T19
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIA@KC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T19
Alex Bregman3B
CHCvsMIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T19
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@CIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #94
T19
Julio RodríguezCF
SEA@BOS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T19
Juan SotoLF
NYM@TB· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T19
Eduardo ValenciaDH
DET@MIN· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #106
T19
Ben RiceDH
NYY@LAA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T19
Jeff McNeil2B
ATH@TEX· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #119
T19
Mickey GasperDH
BOSvsSEA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #122
T19
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@KC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #130
T19
Zack Gelof3B
ATH@TEX· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #132
T19
Adael Amador2B
COLvsBAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #140
T19
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAAvsNYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #142
T19
Carter JensenC
KCvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #143
T19
Ty France1B
SD@CIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #145
T19
Alika WilliamsSS
ATH@TEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #159
T19
Xander BogaertsSS
SD@CIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #161
T19
Josh BellDH
MINvsDET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #166
T19
Tristan PetersCF
CWS@HOU· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #173
T19
John PeckSS
DET@MIN· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #178
T19
Jhonny PeredaC
SEA@BOS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #182
T19
Michael Massey2B
KCvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #198
T19
Myles StrawCF
TOR@CLE· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #206
T19
Andrés GiménezSS
TOR@CLE· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #214
T19
Patrick BaileyC
CLEvsTOR· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #221
T19
Nathan LukesRF
TOR@CLE· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #230
T19
Cooper PrattSS
MIL@CHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #232
T19
Austin Riley3B
ATL@WSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #242
T19
Weston Wilson3B
SEA@BOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #243
T19
Sean MurphyC
ATL@WSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #245
T19
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATL@WSH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #246
T19
Bryan De La CruzRF
PHI@AZ· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #258
T19
Thomas SaggeseLF
STL@LAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #261
T19
Nathan ChurchCF
STL@LAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #262
T19
Griffin ConineRF
MIA@KC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T19
Christian YelichDH
MIL@CHC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T19
Nick MorabitoLF
NYM@TB· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T19
Austin WellsC
NYY@LAA· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H
72
Pete Alonso1B
BAL@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #2
T72
Nick Gonzales3B
PITvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T72
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOUvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #6
T72
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #10
T72
Hunter GoodmanC
COLvsBAL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #11
T72
Luke Keaschall2B
MINvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #13
T72
Brandon Lowe2B
PITvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #15
T72
Spencer Horwitz1B
PITvsSF· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #17
T72
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@BOS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #19
T72
Miguel Rojas2B
LADvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #22
T72
Luis Robert Jr.CF
BAL@COL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #23
T72
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsNYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #28
T72
Brett BatemanCF
TOR@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T72
Tommy Edman2B
LADvsSTL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T72
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DET@MIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T72
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEA@BOS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T72
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEA@BOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T72
Samuel BasalloC
BAL@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T72
Lars NootbaarDH
AZvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T72
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KCvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T72
Riley GreeneLF
DET@MIN· 1-for-6
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #52
T72
Francisco LindorSS
NYM@TB· 1-for-6
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #55
T72
Otto LopezSS
MIA@KC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #57
T72
Héctor RodríguezRF
CINvsSD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #58
T72
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOSvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #61
T72
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATH@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #62
T72
Colt Keith3B
DET@MIN· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #68
T72
Bryce Harper1B
PHI@AZ· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #74
T72
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #76
T72
Turner HillLF
SF@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #78
T72
Jake MangumCF
PITvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #81
T72
Dylan BeaversLF
BAL@COL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #84
T72
Kyle TuckerRF
LADvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T72
Coby Mayo3B
BAL@COL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #90
T72
George SpringerDH
TOR@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #92
T72
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #96
T72
James WoodRF
WSHvsATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #97
T72
Bryce EldridgeDH
SF@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #104
T72
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #110
T72
Luis LaraRF
MIL@CHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #111
T72
Ryan JeffersC
MINvsDET· 1-for-6
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #116
T72
Ernie Clement2B
TOR@CLE· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #118
T72
Amed Rosario3B
NYY@LAA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #123
T72
Brandon NimmoRF
TEXvsATH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #124
T72
Jared Young1B
NYM@TB· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #125
T72
Drew CavanaughC
SF@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #128
T72
James McCannC
AZvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #129
T72
Joey OrtizSS
MIL@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #131
T72
Austin HaysLF
SD@CIN· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #133
T72
Jac CaglianoneRF
KCvsMIA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #135
T72
Jonah HeimC
ATH@TEX· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #136
T72
Oneil CruzCF
PITvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #138
T72
Munetaka Murakami1B
CWS@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #148
T72
Daulton VarshoCF
HOUvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #149
T72
Michael Stefanic2B
ATH@TEX· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #150
T72
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@LAD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #160
T72
Justin Foscue2B
TEXvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #163
T72
Salvador PerezDH
KCvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #164
T72
Trevor LarnachLF
MINvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #175
T72
Leo BernalC
STL@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #177
T72
Mike TroutCF
LAAvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #179
T72
Yohandy Morales1B
WSHvsATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #184
T72
Jared SernaSS
MIA@KC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #185
T72
Caleb Durbin3B
BOSvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #186
T72
José CaballeroSS
NYY@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #189
T72
Cam SmithRF
HOUvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #191
T72
Trevor StorySS
BOSvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #194
T72
Ozzie Albies2B
ATL@WSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #197
T72
Richie Palacios2B
TBvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T72
Jakob MarseeCF
MIA@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #203
T72
Cody Freeman3B
TEXvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #207
T72
Christian Koss3B
SF@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #209
T72
Moisés BallesterosDH
LAAvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #215
T72
Brett Baty3B
NYM@TB· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #216
T72
Royce Lewis1B
MINvsDET· 1-for-6
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #217
T72
Tyrone TaylorLF
CHCvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #219
T72
Matt ShawRF
CHCvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #220
T72
Nick Loftin3B
KCvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #223
T72
Brian ServenC
ATH@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #225
T72
Cedric MullinsCF
TBvsNYM· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #226
T72
A.J. EwingCF
NYM@TB· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #227
T72
Ian HappLF
CHCvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #228
T72
Juan Brito2B
CINvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #229
T72
Elias DíazC
TEXvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #231
T72
Marcus Semien2B
NYM@TB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #233
T72
Taylor WallsSS
TBvsNYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #241
T72
Denzel ClarkeCF
ATH@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #244
T72
Joe MackC
MIA@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #248
T72
Shay Whitcomb3B
SF@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #251
T72
Hunter FeducciaC
LADvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #254
T72
José FermínLF
STL@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #259
T72
John RaveRF
KCvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #260
T72
Ha-Seong KimSS
ATL@WSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #264
T72
Danny JansenC
TEXvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #265
T72
Brett SullivanC
COLvsBAL· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T72
Jacob GonzalezSS
PITvsSF· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T72
Zac VeenLF
COLvsBAL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T72
Trent GrishamCF
NYY@LAA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T72
Javier BáezSS
DET@MIN· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T72
Spencer Torkelson1B
DET@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Wednesday, September 2, 2026

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) is the top hits matchup on the Wednesday, September 2, 2026 board at 100, with Pete Alonso (BAL) and Jackson Chourio (MIL) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Brycen Mautz. The lefty is hitting .243 H/PA against lefties this year — and .063 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 25% of his trips. And Brycen Mautz has been thin against lefties lately. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Brycen Mautz. It all sets up in a park that leans hitter.

The rest of the top of the board

Pete Alonso (BAL) (100) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a solid bat at .243 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.500), hitter's park.
Jackson Chourio (MIL) (100) vs LHP David Peterson: a strong bat at .270 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.210), hot bat.
Cody Bellinger (NYY) (92) vs LHP Reid Detmers: a strong bat at .263 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.316), hot bat.
Nick Gonzales (PIT) (90) vs RHP Landen Roupp: a strong bat at .268 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.222).
Jeremy Peña (HOU) (90) vs RHP Davis Martin: a strong bat at .263 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.286).
Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) (90) vs LHP Reid Detmers: an excellent bat at .272 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.286).
Jackson Holliday (BAL) (89) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a league-average bat at .221 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.341), hitter's park.

Pitchers getting tattooed today

LHP Cody Bradford has been vulnerable to lefties — .289 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Lawrence Butler (ATH), Henry Bolte (ATH), and Jeff McNeil (ATH).
LHP Patrick Sandoval has been vulnerable to lefties — .278 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Josh Naylor (SEA), Randy Arozarena (SEA), and Dominic Canzone (SEA).
RHP Justin Hagenman has been vulnerable to righties — .277 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Chandler Simpson (TB), and Yandy Díaz (TB).
RHP Tomoyuki Sugano has been vulnerable to righties — .265 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Alonso (BAL), Jackson Holliday (BAL), and Gunnar Henderson (BAL).

Platoon edges to target

Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .263 against lefties this year.
Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .265 against lefties this year.
Jackson Holliday (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .194 against righties this year.
Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .254 against righties this year.
Hunter Goodman (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .239 against lefties this year.

Best parks to hit in today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+9% hits park). Top bat there: Pete Alonso (BAL) at 100.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Jackson Chourio (MIL), Cody Bellinger (NYY), Jake McCarthy (COL), Luke Keaschall (MIN), Mookie Betts (LAD), and Rafael Devers (SF). Cold but due to bounce back: Luis Robert Jr. (BAL), Cole Carrigg (COL), Drew Gilbert (SF), Blaze Alexander (BAL), and Riley Greene (DET).

How it played out

9 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Wednesday, September 2, 2026)?: Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Brycen Mautz. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Wednesday, September 2, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Wednesday, September 2, 2026: Shohei Ohtani (100), Pete Alonso (100), Jackson Chourio (100), Cody Bellinger (92), Nick Gonzales (90). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Wednesday, September 2, 2026?: No — Shohei Ohtani didn't record a hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .263 against lefties this year. Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .265 against lefties this year. Jackson Holliday (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .194 against righties this year. Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .254 against righties this year. Hunter Goodman (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .239 against lefties this year.
Which parks favor hits today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+9% hits park). Top bat there: Pete Alonso (BAL) at 100.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: LHP Cody Bradford has been vulnerable to lefties — .289 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Lawrence Butler (ATH), Henry Bolte (ATH), and Jeff McNeil (ATH). LHP Patrick Sandoval has been vulnerable to lefties — .278 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Josh Naylor (SEA), Randy Arozarena (SEA), and Dominic Canzone (SEA). RHP Justin Hagenman has been vulnerable to righties — .277 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Chandler Simpson (TB), and Yandy Díaz (TB). RHP Tomoyuki Sugano has been vulnerable to righties — .265 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Alonso (BAL), Jackson Holliday (BAL), and Gunnar Henderson (BAL).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Jackson Chourio (MIL), Cody Bellinger (NYY), Jake McCarthy (COL), Luke Keaschall (MIN), Mookie Betts (LAD), and Rafael Devers (SF). Cold but due to bounce back: Luis Robert Jr. (BAL), Cole Carrigg (COL), Drew Gilbert (SF), Blaze Alexander (BAL), and Riley Greene (DET).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.