Who has the best home runs matchup today (Thursday, August 6, 2026)?

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Miles Mikolas. Elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB home runs matchups today (Thursday, August 6, 2026)?

The top home runs matchups on Thursday, August 6, 2026: Kyle Schwarber (100), Bryce Harper (78), Matt Olson (71), Brandon Lowe (70), Pete Alonso (70). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by home runs upside.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .071 against righties this year. Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .068 against righties this year. Matt Olson (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .070 against righties this year. Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .057 against righties this year. Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .056 against righties this year.

How is the home runs matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.

What does HR/PA mean?

It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end in a home run. Around .030 (3%) is league average. Elite power runs .065+. We measure it per trip to the plate, which is what a daily matchup comes down to.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a home run.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a home run.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a home run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for home runs props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ home run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a home run a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB home runs matchups — Thursday, August 6, 2026

Every slugger on the Thursday, August 6, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to hit a home run. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

12:35 PM ET

LAAaway

BALhomeTop matchup70 12:40 PM ET

ATHaway

CINhomeTop matchup56 1:10 PM ET

NYMaway

CLEhomeTop matchup40 2:10 PM ET

PITaway

MILhomeTop matchup70 2:20 PM ET

TORaway

CHChomeTop matchup68 4:10 PM ET

DETaway

SEAhomeTop matchup63 6:05 PM ET

WSHaway

PHIhomeTop matchup100 7:10 PM ET

CWSaway

BOShomeTop matchup49 7:15 PM ET

MIAaway

ATLhomeTop matchup71 7:40 PM ET

MINaway

KChomeTop matchup56 9:40 PM ET

SDaway

AZhomeTop matchup47

PROJ180 on a projected lineup — updates ~2h before first pitch

Not starting4 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 202 shownScore

Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Thursday, August 6, 2026

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) is the top home runs matchup on the Thursday, August 6, 2026 board at 100, with Bryce Harper (PHI) and Matt Olson (ATL) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to hit a home run — power, the park, handedness splits, and how this arm gives up the long ball. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top home runs spot: Kyle Schwarber

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Miles Mikolas. The lefty is going deep on .071 HR/PA against righties this year — and .000 over the last two weeks, elite bat that turns into a home run in about 7% of his trips. And Miles Mikolas has been getting taken deep by righties lately — .116 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .171 in 35 career PA against Miles Mikolas, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Bryce Harper (PHI) (78) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: big-time bat at .054 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.116), due to bounce back.
Matt Olson (ATL) (71) vs RHP Janson Junk: big-time bat at .056 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Brandon Lowe (PIT) (70) vs RHP Dustin May: big-time bat at .054 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Pete Alonso (BAL) (70) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: big-time bat at .050 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (68) vs RHP Dylan Cease: big-time bat at .052 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) (65) vs RHP Janson Junk: real bat at .048 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Julio Rodríguez (SEA) (63) vs LHP Framber Valdez: big-time bat at .052 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.020), hot bat.

Platoon edges to target

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .071 against righties this year.
Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .068 against righties this year.
Matt Olson (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .070 against righties this year.
Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .057 against righties this year.
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .056 against righties this year.

Lineup watch

180 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.

How to read these home runs matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best home runs matchup today (Thursday, August 6, 2026)?: Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Miles Mikolas. Elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB home runs matchups today (Thursday, August 6, 2026)?: The top home runs matchups on Thursday, August 6, 2026: Kyle Schwarber (100), Bryce Harper (78), Matt Olson (71), Brandon Lowe (70), Pete Alonso (70). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by home runs upside.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .071 against righties this year. Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .068 against righties this year. Matt Olson (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .070 against righties this year. Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .057 against righties this year. Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .056 against righties this year.
How is the home runs matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.
What does HR/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end in a home run. Around .030 (3%) is league average. Elite power runs .065+. We measure it per trip to the plate, which is what a daily matchup comes down to.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a home run.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a home run.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a home run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for home runs props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ home run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a home run a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the home runs board is

The Home Runs board projects the chance a hitter goes deep, park and matchup baked in. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's power vs the pitcher's hand.
The park's home-run environment and the wind.
How hard and how often he hits it in the air.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Home runs is one of the most efficiently priced props in the sport — every config we've backtested loses to the line, and our disagreements point away from the book's mistakes, not toward them. So HR is a transparency board: our projection, graded, no play attached. The honest read is the book is simply sharper here.

How to use it

Read it for who's in a live spot to run into one — but don't bet our number against the line; there's no edge to press.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays