Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Wednesday, August 5, 2026
Top home runs spot: Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami (CWS) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Sonny Gray. The lefty is going deep on .087 HR/PA against righties this year — and .093 over the last two weeks, elite bat that turns into a home run in about 8% of his trips. And Sonny Gray has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .018 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Sonny Gray. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (96) vs RHP Jameson Taillon: big-time bat at .060 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) (88) vs LHP Kyle Harrison: elite bat at .075 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (77) vs RHP Jake Irvin: elite bat at .066 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.067), due to bounce back.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (73) vs RHP Nick Martinez: elite bat at .070 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.043).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (69) vs LHP Shota Imanaga: big-time bat at .057 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.063), hot bat.
- Griffin Conine (MIA) (66) vs RHP Bryce Elder: big-time bat at .057 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.061), due to bounce back.
- Ben Rice (NYY) (65) vs RHP Andre Pallante: big-time bat at .056 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .087 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .071 against righties this year.
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .115 against lefties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .072 against righties this year.
- Griffin Conine (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .083 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.