Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Friday, August 14, 2026
Top home runs spot: Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP George Kirby. The lefty is going deep on .067 HR/PA against righties this year — and .000 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And George Kirby has been leaking power to righties lately — .038 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .191 in 21 career PA against George Kirby, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (100) vs RHP Jackson Jobe: elite bat at .072 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Griffin Conine (MIA) (100) vs RHP Chase Burns: big-time bat at .062 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (99) vs LHP Robert Gasser: big-time bat at .061 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) (92) vs LHP Jake Bennett: elite bat at .067 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Coby Mayo (BAL) (91) vs LHP Steven Matz: elite bat at .066 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Matt Olson (ATL) (89) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: big-time bat at .058 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Tyler O'Neill (BAL) (89) vs LHP Steven Matz: elite bat at .074 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .067 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .084 against righties this year.
- Griffin Conine (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .087 against righties this year.
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .099 against lefties this year.
- Coby Mayo (BAL) — righty bat vs LHP, .104 against lefties this year.
How it played out
2 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Yordan Alvarez finished with 1 home run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the home runs board is
The Home Runs board projects the chance a hitter goes deep, park and matchup baked in. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- The hitter's power vs the pitcher's hand.
- The park's home-run environment and the wind.
- How hard and how often he hits it in the air.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Home runs is one of the most efficiently priced props in the sport — every config we've backtested loses to the line, and our disagreements point away from the book's mistakes, not toward them. So HR is a transparency board: our projection, graded, no play attached. The honest read is the book is simply sharper here.
How to use it
Read it for who's in a live spot to run into one — but don't bet our number against the line; there's no edge to press.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
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