Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Monday, August 24, 2026
Top home runs spot: Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami (CWS) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Kumar Rocker. The lefty is going deep on .082 HR/PA against righties this year — and .071 over the last two weeks, elite bat that turns into a home run in about 7% of his trips. And Kumar Rocker has been homer-prone to righties lately — .044 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Kumar Rocker too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (97) vs RHP Logan Gilbert: elite bat at .070 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) (79) vs LHP Robbie Ray: big-time bat at .058 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.067).
- Abimelec Ortiz (WSH) (74) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: big-time bat at .063 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.032), due to bounce back.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (71) vs RHP Logan Gilbert: big-time bat at .053 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Rafael Devers (SF) (71) vs RHP Chase Burns: big-time bat at .053 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (68) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: big-time bat at .054 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.097).
- Mickey Moniak (COL) (63) vs RHP Cade Cavalli: big-time bat at .057 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .082 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .074 against righties this year.
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .080 against lefties this year.
- Abimelec Ortiz (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .091 against righties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .064 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
180 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the home runs board is
The Home Runs board projects the chance a hitter goes deep, park and matchup baked in. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- The hitter's power vs the pitcher's hand.
- The park's home-run environment and the wind.
- How hard and how often he hits it in the air.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Home runs is one of the most efficiently priced props in the sport — every config we've backtested loses to the line, and our disagreements point away from the book's mistakes, not toward them. So HR is a transparency board: our projection, graded, no play attached. The honest read is the book is simply sharper here.
How to use it
Read it for who's in a live spot to run into one — but don't bet our number against the line; there's no edge to press.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays